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Methodological Overview

This report analyzes the socio-economic impacts of pre-accession aid in Eastern Europe, examining the relation between aid, GDP, unemployment, and policy-oriented typologies. The findings highlight the role of potentials, spatial integration, and unemployment development in the region. Tentative policy recommendations suggest a 3-level approach focusing on macro, meso, and micro levels for effective regional development strategies.

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Methodological Overview

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  1. ESPON 2.2.2.Pre-accession aid impact analysis- Third Interim Report - ESPON SeminarNijmegen, 11-12 October 2004

  2. ESPON Database Data Collection Pre-Accession Aid Data Potential Data Potential Analysis Meta Analysis Analysis of Regional Pre-Accession Aid Socio-economic impacts Relation between Potentials and Pre-Accession Aid GDP Unemployment Policy Oriented Typologies Location Quotients (& related to potentials) Quantitative Impact Analysis Qualitative Impact Analysis (case studies) Methodological Overview

  3. Preliminary Results – Typology Macro Level • Change of relative position depends on national income levels and national performance • Above average growth and low intervention level – capital regions of Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Slovenia • Average and below average growth despite relatively high intervention level – mostly only in quite peripheral regions • No region in group of highest intervention level with clearly above average income growth

  4. Preliminary Results – Typology Meso Level • Above national average growth with low intervention level – many capital and other centrally located regions and some (Western) border regions • Below national average growth despite relatively high intervention level – fewer cases in mostly peripheral regions • Pure income impacts very limited on both spatial levels

  5. Preliminary Results – Unemployment Development and EU Intervention

  6. Preliminary Results – Role of Potentials • Different potentials matter for income and unemployment developments to different extents • Other influences: initial unemployment and income; region types in some cases; not observed influences

  7. Preliminary Results – Spatial Integration • Cross-border cooperation • - Programmes mostly focus on regional bottlenecks resulting from border situation, yet, often aim at improvements on level other than micro-level (e.g. transport linkages for agglomerations) • - 'Soft' measures of SPFs very effective in terms of socio-cultural integration, but: low importance of these measures in other programmes • - Positive effects for regional building of institutions' capacity where funds have not been too limited • - Focus on regional development rather than spatial integration • - Level of existing spatial integration tends to define scope of cross-border cooperation programmes and not the other way around • Trans-national integration • - Programmes address main bottlenecks and potentials common to respective macro-region • - Significant impacts on trans-national level not to be expected as of funds' limitation • - Existing integration level defines common fields of action • - Institution building and integration successful • - Unequal opportunities hamper spatial integration impacts in socio-economic terms – national vs. trans-national interests • - Regional rather than macro-regional character of many projects

  8. Tentative Policy Recommendations – 3-Level Approach • Macro-Level: • - support of productive investments with sustainable effects for regional economy • - creation of growth from economic centres (relatively high potential endowment) through competition oriented policy to expanding regions then creating spatial cohesion • - strengthen role of potential and weak MEGAs in New Member States and Candidate Countries – especially in CEE Triangle – through potential rather than priority orientation • Meso-Level: • - utilisation of institutional achievements and their further enhancement • - consider national specifics in their translation for regional policies • - coordinated and integrative strategy for regions depending on their natural, social and economic endowment with potentials / bottlenecks • Micro-Level: • - regional SWOT – analytical base for concentrated regional measures • - improving regional institutional structures

  9. Tentative Policy Recommendations – Policy Packages • Package 1 for major urban agglomerations: infrastructure linkages; innovation; sector structure • Package 2 for Western border regions: human resources; innovation; cross-border integration • Package 3 for old industrial regions: business restructuring; human resources; infrastructure modernisation; environment • Package 4 for Eastern peripheral and rural regions: local SMEs; institution building; human resources • Package 5 for island economies: environment; trans-national integration; economic diversification

  10. Main Challenges • Further improvements of data availability (SAPARD) • Dealing with missing data • Improving output of selective work packages (e.g. quantitative analysis) • Completing ex-ante analysis • Cluster analysis for uniting elements of potential analysis • Synthesis – Bringing together results of all work packages and for all spatial levels • Integration of priority 2 project results (sector policies)

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