Overview of Methodological Frameworks for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment

1. Overview of Methodological Frameworks for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not Included in Annex I to the UNFCCC (CGE) Hands-on Training Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation forAsian and Pacific Countries 20~24 March 2006 Jakarta, Indonesia Xianfu Lu NCSP, UNDP-UNEP-GEF Xianfu.lu@undp.org

2. Key terms:Impacts, Adaptation/adaptive capacity, and Vulnerability Scoping a V&A assessment: key questions to ask and issues to consider Overview of V&A frameworks:options and their application contexts In the next 40 minutes or so…

3. Key terms

4. Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of: The character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed; Its Sensitivity; and Its adaptive capacity Key terms:Vulnerability

5. Exposure • Exposure is what is at risk from climate change, e.g., • Population; • Natural resources; • Infrastructure and property • It also includes aspects of climate change that an affected system will face, e.g., • Sea level rise; • Temperature warming; • Precipitation change; • Intensified extreme events

6. The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by a given climate-related stimuli; Direct (e.g., reduction in crop yield caused by increased drought conditions), or indirect (e.g., damage to properties from coastal flooding caused by sea level rise); Generally, primary production systems (e.g., agriculture, forestry) are much more sensitive to climate variations, compared with most secondary and tertiary sectors (e.g., manufacturing and services) Sensitivity

7. Adaptive Capacity • The ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences; • Determined by the access to: Wealth, technology, education, institutions, information, infrastructure, “Social capital” • The mere possession of adaptive capacity does NOT guarantee that adaptation actually takes place.

8. Vulnerability is determined by these three factors.

9. … is typically the effect of climate change: For biological systems, it can be changes in productivity, quality, population, or diversity For societal systems, an impact can be a change in income, morbidity, mortality, or other measures of well-being Adverse as well as beneficial Impacts of Climate Change

10. “… adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” Adaptation

11. Two types of adaptation: Autonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent Anticipatory or proactive adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change Adaptation (continued) V&A research and adaptation planning are largely addressing issues associated withanticipatory/planned adaptation.

12. Different States of Impacts and Vulnerability

13. Different States of Impacts and Vulnerability (continued) Different definitions might be used to describe different states of impacts and vulnerability. Therefore, it is important to explicitly specify the context of the definition whenever it is used.

14. Scoping a V&A Assessment

15. What is of concern? Food production, water supply, health Concerns may not be expressed in climate terms, e.g., extreme temperature, but in consequences of climate for people (e.g., excess mortality caused by heat-waves) Who may be affected? How far into the future is of concern? Or is the concern really about current risks (which could be made worse by climate change)? Some questions to ask…

16. For what purpose is the assessment to be conducted? Engaging stakeholders (public awareness campaign)? Enhancing scientific understanding (a piece of scholarship)? Designing adaptation strategy or formulating adaptation projects (policy support )? Some questions to ask… (continued)

17. Different purposes require different approaches to V&A assessment.

18. Who is the targeted end-users of the results of your V&A assessment? Level of technical details; Treatment of uncertainties; Format for presenting results What kind of output/information is expected from the Assessment? Public awareness materials (e.g., climate scenarios and their potential impacts etc.); Key vulnerabilities (e.g., risk/vulnerability maps); A national/sectoral adaptation strategy; or A combination of the above Some questions to ask… (continued)

19. What resources are available to conduct the study? Money Staff Expertise How much time is available? Additional Questions to Ask

20. So, You should NOT begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with these questions. Select methods and models that are mostappropriate for your V&A assessment These Questions are Key Factors in Determining How the V&A should be conducted.

21. Overview of Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks

22. Types of Frameworks • Approaches to V&A assessments can be categorized by the • subject matter; • spatial scale; and • chronology • of the assessments

23. “Top Down” vs. “Bottom Up” Frameworks

24. Focusing on long-term (e.g., 2100 or beyond) implications of climate change Often scenario driven “Top-down” Frameworks

25. Basic Structure for “Top-down” Frameworks

26. Define the problem Select the method Test the method Select scenarios Assess biophysical and socioeconomic impacts Assess autonomous adjustments Evaluate adaptation strategies The IPCC “7-Step” Describing the Procedures involved in the “Top-down” Framework

27. U.S. Country Studies Programme (http://www.gcrio.org/CSP/webpage.html); National V&A assessments as reported in the Initial National Communications (INCs) of NAI Parties (http://unfccc.int/national_reports/non-annex_i_natcom/items/2979.php); Assessments reported in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCCC (TAR) (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm) “Top-down” Frameworks applied in most V&A assessments to date

28. Addressing near-term concerns Driven by issues identified through stakeholder consultations Analysis to be conducted as deemed necessary Application of “informal” analytical techniques “Bottom-up” Frameworks

29. “Bottom-up” Frameworks • UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (APF); • NAPA Guidance; • UKCIP Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision-making Framework

30. UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework

31. Technical papers on: Scoping and designing an adaptation project Engaging stakeholders in the adaptation process Assessing vulnerability for climate adaptation Assessing current climate risks Assessing future climate risks Assessing current and changing socioeconomic conditions Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity Formulating an adaptation strategy Continuing the adaptation process UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (continued) All these papers are freely available at: http://ncsp.undp.org/resources.asp

32. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) to identify immediate & urgent needs for adaptation; Synthesizing existing information and knowledge, undertaking a national consultative process, and setting priorities for adaptation projects to address urgent vulnerabilities; Followed an “8-step” process to formulate adaptation programme of action NAPA Guidance

33. NAPA “8-step” Process

34. UKCIP Risk-Uncertainty-Decision-making(“8-step”) Framework

35. Identify problem and objectives Establish decision-making criteria Assess risk Identify options Appraise options Make decision Implement decision Monitor, evaluate, and review UKCIP Risk-Uncertainty-Decision-making Framework (continued) Source: UKCIP, 2003 [http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/RUD_master.pdf]

36. VARA (Vulnerability and Response Assessment for Climate Variability and Change (http://public.ornl.gov/vara/ ) Sustainable livelihoods (http://www.livelihoods.org) Other Derivations of “Bottom-up” Frameworks

37. No particular framework can be recommended without a specific context Different frameworks are appropriate for different needs and have different requirements. What is needed in the long run is a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches, or their elements. Selecting a Framework

38. 24 projects in Africa, Asia & Pacific, Latin America & the Caribbean (including 6 projects in the Region: China, Fiji & Cook Islands, Indonesia-Philippines, Mongolia, Sri Lanka, Thailand/countries sharing the Mekong River Basin); Assessing vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in multiple sectors; Applying a wide range of approaches, methods, and tools; A wealth body of resources available at http://www.aiaccproject.org A GEF-funded V&A assessment project: AIACC

39. Projects often take longer and cost more than originally thought (or proposed); You may only get through the first few steps before running out of time or/and funds; So Do what you NEED (not what you want!) early on; and Finally, a few points worth remembering…

40. You should NOT begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with these questions. Select methods and models that are most appropriate for your particular V&A assessment Once again…