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Sponsor Problem

Prepare for Success. NATO Code of Best Practice (COBP) for C2 Assessment. 3. Problem Formulation. Sponsor Problem. 4. Solution Strategy. 6. Human & Organisational Issues. Risk and Uncertainty Chapter 10 David S. Alberts Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense

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Sponsor Problem

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  1. Prepare for Success NATO Code of Best Practice (COBP) for C2 Assessment 3 Problem Formulation Sponsor Problem 4 Solution Strategy 6 Human & Organisational Issues Risk and Uncertainty Chapter 10 David S. Alberts Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Networks and Information Integration (OASD/NI2) 5 Measures of Merit (MoM) 7 Scenarios 8 Methods & Tools Products 11 9 Data 10 Assess Risk

  2. Risk and Uncertainty Prepare for Success 3 Problem Problem Formulation Formulation Sponsor Sponsor Problem Problem 4 Solution Solution Strategy Strategy 6 Human & Human & Organizational Organizational Issues Issues 5 Measures of Measures of 7 Scenarios Scenarios Merit ( MoM ) Merit ( MoM ) 8 Methods Models & Tools & Tools 11 9 Products Products Data Data 10 Assess Assess Risk Risk

  3. Agenda • Definitions of Risk and Uncertainty • Types of Risks and Uncertainties • Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty

  4. Definitions • Risk • Possibility of suffering a loss • Actual • Opportunity • Uncertainty • Inability to determine • Value of a variable • A future state • Probability • Unknowns All risks involve uncertainties

  5. Types of Risks and Uncertainties • Assessment • Related to the conduct of the assessment • Decision or Operational • Related to taking decision(s) or action(s) that the assessment is meant to inform Not all risks and/or uncertainties can be eliminated

  6. Examples of Uncertainties in C2 Assessments • The “right” question • Assumptions • Appropriate set of scenarios • Sources of data • Correctness of data • Limits of models and simulations • Appropriate solution approaches • Stakeholder perceptions and predispositions • Schedule and cost • And lots more………………..

  7. C2 and Decisionmaking • Decisionmaking is at the heart of C2 • Individual, team, organizational, adversarial, etc. • We lack an adequate understanding of decisionmaking and related processes • Perceptions • Styles • Cultural influences • Relationships to information quality and misinformation • These factors are inadequately represented in M&S tools Ignoring these only increases risks and/or uncertainties

  8. Assessment Risks and Uncertainties • Assessments should be judged by their ability to inform: that is by reduction in risk and uncertainty • Identifying key considerations • Fact finding • Analysis • Hence, the major assessment risk is failing to do so: a failure to inform • Failure to deliver the assessment in a timely manner • Missing key considerations • Inadequate fact finding • Poor or incomplete analysis • Failure to properly communicate findings and conclusions

  9. Decision/Action Risks andUncertainties • Decision/Actions are attended by risks associated with • Fog and friction of war (and operations other than war) • Adversary actions or reactions • Environment (including other parties) • Unintended consequences • Hence, major decision/action risk include • Misunderstanding of situation (including command intent) • Failure to consider full range of options • Failure to understand the full range of (cascading) effects associated with various options • Failure to make a decision / take an action at the appropriate time

  10. Dealing with Risks and Uncertainties • Reducing Uncertainties • Identify and treat uncertainties explicitly • Focus on the most consequential of the uncertainties • Seek to be informed from multiple sources • Perform sensitivity analyses • Mitigating Risks • Identify and treat risks explicitly • Scrub assumptions • Following the COBP will help reduce risks • Risk analyses • Risk register • Develop contingencies • Develop agility • Contingency planning Communicating risks anduncertainties is essential

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