DfES Longitudinal Studies of Young People

1. DfES Longitudinal Studies of Young People Iain Noble Strategic Analysis, DfES iain.noble@dfes.gsi.gov.uk

2. Longitudinal studies in DfES • Department makes extensive use of longitudinal methods • Used in e.g. evaluations and tracking studies (e.g. of teachers and other members of workforce) • Has longitudinal administrative data sets (e.g. National Pupil Database) • Maintains two major cohort studies: the YCS and the LSYPE

3. Differences from other cohort studies • Policy background – focus on transitions, policy and effectiveness • Relatively narrow time focus • Single agency funding • Focus on policy effectiveness and outcomes

4. The Youth Cohort Studies (YCS) • Began in 1985 • Comprise a series of 12 overlapping cohort studies • Coverage of England and Wales (SSLS in Scotland) • Data collection primarily by post but increasing use of telephone

5. The YCS – sample designs • Samples drawn from Year 11 school rolls in alternate years • Up to 1993 two stage design, from 1995 simple random sample design • Sample sizes up to 35,000 • Occasional use of over-sampling (likely to increase in future)

6. The YCS – research design • First sweep one year after sampling (when sample members aged 16-17 – Year 12) • Repeat sweeps usually at annual intervals thereafter • Maximum of four sweeps (i.e. final sweep at age 19-20) • Sweeps are numbered S1, S2 etc • Overlapping cohorts – i.e. Sweep 3 for Cohort N takes place at same time as Sweep 1 for Cohort N+1

7. YCS – data weighting • Data is weighted to remove effects of non-response • At S1 calibration to a matrix of region by school type by sex by attainment at GCSE • Subsequently by weighting back to previous sweep (cumulative weights) • Later weighting now primarily survey response related

8. The YCS – core study content • Participation in employment, education and training • Qualifications gained and being studied for • Occupational details (including recent job history) • Limited information about schooling (inc truancy etc) and family background

9. The YCS – ‘HE’ modules • Data collection through telephone interviews (c 20 minutes) at S2 and S3 • Target sample 2000 at S2 with above average GCSEs • S2 module covers attitudes to and intentions regarding HE • S3 module re-interviews re actual behaviour, alternatives and student finance etc

10. YCS – initial uses of data • Measure participation, progression and attainment • Compare differences in these by key groups – social class, gender, ethnicity, type of school etc • Identify key factors influencing later progression • Reported initially in Statistical First Release – for example see: http://www.dfes.gov.uk/rsgateway/DB/SFR/s000435/index.shtml

11. The YCS – secondary analysis examples • Factors affecting HE participation • Vocational Pathways • Post 16 students and part-time jobs • Changes in wage structure and participation • The effects of ethnic minority status

12. YCS – problems • Declining response rates at Sweep 1 • Response/attrition more a problem with lower qualified etc • Small cell sizes for sub-samples of interest (e.g. ethnic minorities, NEET) • Doubts on accuracy of qualification reporting

13. YCS data availability • YCS 1-11 available through UKDA/ESDS – see: http://www.data-archive.ac.uk/search/indexSearch.asp?ct=xmlAll&q1=Youth+Cohort • DfES looking to improve data documentation and data enhancement • DfES also looking to improve speed of delivery of data into public domain • Special data sets (e.g. with linked data) available through Department

14. YCS – the future • Cohort 13 not beginning until 2007 (because LSYPE will cover gap) • Linkage to administrative data (e.g. exam results and KS exam scores) for maintained sector pupils from C12 on • Increasing use of targeted sampling for maintained sector

15. LSYPE – the need for a new study • Changes in policy • Changes in labour markets • Changes in youth transitions • Changes in information needs • Deficiencies in current information available

16. Changes in policy - The New Agenda • New directions in integrated policy e.g. Connexions, funding framework changes • New focus on transitions • Specific new policies (e.g. Modern Apprenticeships, EMA) • Longer time frame for integrated policy (e.g. 14-19) • HE target • Concept of distance travel

17. Changes in labour market • Increase in participation in FT Ed • ‘Collapse’ of youth labour market • Growth of part-time employment • Polarisation and social exclusion • Growing role of vocational qualifications (with own dangers of polarisation) • Creation of LSCs

18. Changes in youth transitions from compulsory education • More protracted (take longer on average) • More complex (pass through more states on average) • Greater heterogeneity (greater diversity across all young people) • Subject to influence of greater diversity of factors

19. Key needs from research • Enable evaluationof effects of existing policy and institutions (‘what works’) • Support further policy development • Enable policy development for key groups • High degree of spread • Be flexible

20. Target groups/questions e.g. … • HE participation: increasing participation, reducing disparities • The NEET (not in employment, education or training) • Underachievers and the disaffected • What works in schools • Ethnic minorities

21. Disadvantages of current research • Life of study too short (e.g. YCS, LFS) • Sample size too small (e.g. BHPS) • Specific problems with sub-samples of key policy interest • Time between waves too long (e.g. Birth Cohort Studies) • Topic coverage too restricted (all)

22. Current information deficiencies • Lack of extensive detail about parents and family circumstances • Lack of data about school circumstances • Data collected by proxy • Data collected too late • Lack of data about environment • Lack of robust information for key groups (e.g. NEET, at risk, ethnic minorities)

23. The Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE) • Begins at 14 • Annual interviews until age 25 • Additional interviews at Waves 1 and 2 with parent/adult • Linkage to administrative data

24. LSYPE - Sample design • Initial main set sample of 15, 000 • Two stage sampling using schools (c. 670) • Separate designs for maintained and independent sectors • ‘Social exclusion’ design (boost schools with >20% FSM eligible) • Additional ethnic minority boost sample of 6,000 (maintained only) • Sampled from National Pupil Database (maintained only) • Target Wave 1 response rate 72%

25. National Pupil Database • Individual level (i.e. pupil) record • Derived from Pupil Level Annual Schools Census (PLASC) • Maintained sector only • Source of additional valuable data (e.g. KS scores, exam results)

26. Ethnic minority boost sample Additional 1000 sample members at Wave 1 for: • Black Caribbean • Indian • Pakistani • Bangladeshi • Black African • ‘Mixed’

27. Interview methods • Wave 1: Face to face, Young person 30 minutes, Parent 50 minutes • Wave 2: Face to face, Young person 40 minutes, Parent 40 minutes • Default telephone interviews thereafter (20 minutes) • Possible expansion of Wave 3 interview to 40 minutes face to face with both

28. Wave 1 Questionnaire content: young person • Attitudes to school/education • School subject preferences, choices and performance • Access to and use of ICT • Homework polices and practice • Study support • Aspirations/expectations for 16 and beyond • ‘At-risk’ markers

29. Wave 1 Questionnaire content: parent interview • Household structure and relationships • School history of young person • Employment history of parents • Relationship history of parents (to DOB) • Involvement in school/education • Aspirations/expectations for young person • Income and benefits

30. Possible data linkages • To data about schools, colleges and neighbourhoods • To examination and training databases • To further individual level databases

31. State of play…... • Wave 1 in progress • Survey known as Next Steps to sample members • Likely W1 response rate of 75% or more • Wave 2 in design • First Wave 1 data available in early summer 2005

32. Data availability • Through UKDA/ESDS wherever possible • Some restrictions where administrative data used and other disclosure controls • Specific contractor appointed to develop data enhancement and documentation • Possible web-based access and tabulation

33. Conclusions • Both YCS and LSYPE offer major opportunities for both policy analysis and more general social analyses • YCS offers major opportunities to look at changes over the last 20 years • DfES welcomes proposals for analysis and suggestion to improve data content and availability