Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) The CAST Framework and its Applicability to Cargo Operations NTSB Air Cargo Safe

1. Commercial AviationSafety Team (CAST)The CAST Framework and its Applicability to Cargo OperationsNTSB Air Cargo Safety ForumMarch 30-31, 2004

2. White House Commission on Aviation Safety, and The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) provided a go-forward approach “Reduce Fatal Accident Rate by 80%” “Strategic Plan to Improve Safety” “Improve Safety Worldwide”

3. CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda Industry Government AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing P&W* RAA FSF • DOD • FAA • Aircraft Certification • Flight Standards • System Safety • Air Traffic Operations • Research • NASA • ICAO** • JAA • TCC • NATCA** • NTSB** Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** * Representing GE and RR ** Observer

4. CAST Goals • Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 • Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

5. Cargo and passenger operations share similar issues

6. Initial CAST investigation categories set by reviewing the data • Controlled Flight Into Terrain • Loss of Control • Uncontained Engine Failures • Runway Incursion • Approach and Landing • Weather Both cargo and passenger issues included in investigations

7. CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) • Data analyses • Safety enhancement development • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study

8. Robust CAST Methodology • Detailed event sequence - problem identification from worldwide accidents and incidents • CVR • DFDR • NTSB reports, etc. • Broad based teams (45-50 specialists/team) • > 800 problem statements • 752 interventions • Packaged into 87 system enhancements • Analyzed for effectiveness and synergy • 46 enhancements adopted

9. CAST process led to integrated strategic safety plan • Part 121 or equivalent passenger and cargo operations studied • 19% of accidents and incidents analyzed in detail involved cargo operations or operators (CFIT, Approach & Landing, Loss of Control) • Current CAST plan: • 46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements • 8 R&D projects and 2 studies • Projected 73% fatality risk reduction by 2007 • Industry and Government implementing plan • ATA (20 operators), RAA (47), NACA (13) plus non-aligned (35)

10. CAST Safety Plan • 25 Completed Safety Enhancements • Safety Culture • Maintenance Procedures • Flight Crew Training • Air Traffic Controller Training • Uncontained Engine Failures • Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) • Standard Operating Procedures • Precision Approaches • Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems • Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)

11. CAST Safety Plan (cont.) • 21 Committed Safety Enhancements • Policies and Procedures • Aircraft Design • Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) • Runway Incursion Prevention • Precision Approaches (additional projects) • 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies

12. Resources vs. risk reduction highlights the need for prioritized approach 100% 10 Risk Reduction APPROVED PLAN $ 9 Total Cost in $ (Millions) 8 75% 7 6 Risk Eliminated $ Resource Cost ($ Billions) 50% 5 2007 2020 4 3 25% 2 1 $ $ $ 0% 0 All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Completed Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) CAST-050

13. Prioritized safety makes good economic sense Cost Savings Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents 100 Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle 80 Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year Dollars/Flt. Cyc 60 73% Fatality Risk Reduction 40 20 Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels 0 2002 2007

14. Fully implementing the CAST plan will lead to a 73% overall risk reduction by 2007 Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values) 100% Risk Eliminated 90% Risk Remaining 80% 70% 60% Portion of Risk 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Evac Total CFIT Midair LOC Flt Crew Inc LOC GND Eng-UCEF Sys-Comp Turbulence Fire/Explosion Runway Collision CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded.

15. CAST enhancements will lead to large safety improvement for both passenger & cargo operations 100% 90% 80% 70% 75% 60% Portion of Accidents 50% Passenger Operations 40% 30% 20% 69% Unmitigated Passenger Cargo Operations 10% Unmitigated Cargo 0% Before CAST Plan (1987 – 2000) Implemented CAST Plan (2007) * Based on assessment of 1987-2001 accident data for turbine powered aircraft

16. Current CAST plan will give large safety improvements Across the range of cargo operations accident factors 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Common with Passenger Operations Portion of Cargo Accidents 50% 75% 40% 30% Unique to Cargo Operations 51% 20% Unmitigated Common Unmitigated Unique 10% 0% Remaining Cargo Accident Factors Implemented CAST Plan (2007) Cargo Operations Accident Factors Before CAST Plan (1987 – 2000) • Part 121 Cargo Accidents • Based on assessment of 1987-2001 accident data for turbine powered aircraft

17. JSAT chartered to examine additional issues not covered by initial CAST activities • Remaining Risk JSAT : • Ground Icing/Deicing • Midair • Maintenance/System Malfunction • Cargo Unique • Cargo shift/CG/Gross Weight • Hazmat

18. Remaining Risk JSAT/JSIT Completion Schedule • Cargo JSAT - May 2004 • Cargo JSIT - December 2004 • Prioritization and updated CAST plan - February 2005

19. Summary • CAST analysis included several cargo accidents • Cast safety enhancements provide effective risk reduction for cargo and passenger operations • Cargo operators should incorporate applicable cast safety enhancements • Remaining risk JSAT evaluating cargo unique factors • Resulting enhancements should be considered prior to launching new initiatives

20. Additional background material