1 / 37

RISKMAN VISION and PLANS K. Holmberg, A. Jovanovic et al 13.2.2003 VTT Industrial Systems, Finland

RISKMAN VISION and PLANS K. Holmberg, A. Jovanovic et al 13.2.2003 VTT Industrial Systems, Finland. CONTENT. 1. Background argumentation 2. Awareness and available tools 3. RISKMAN vision 4. Structure, roadmap and execution plan 5. Research areas, subprojects and deliverables

alima
Download Presentation

RISKMAN VISION and PLANS K. Holmberg, A. Jovanovic et al 13.2.2003 VTT Industrial Systems, Finland

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. RISKMAN VISION and PLANSK. Holmberg, A. Jovanovic et al 13.2.2003 VTT Industrial Systems, Finland

  2. CONTENT 1. Background argumentation 2. Awareness and available tools 3. RISKMAN vision 4. Structure, roadmap and execution plan 5. Research areas, subprojects and deliverables 5. Consortium management 6. Role of partners 7. Supporting organisations 8. Global budget 9. Calendar for the preparation

  3. Motivation and justification Main arguments for launching RISKMAN IP: 1.Disasters result in a great number of human losses, large environmental damage, breakdown of societal functions and citizen insecurity 2. Security of urban environment, protection against terrorist attacks and individual sabotage 3. Safety and reliability will in future have a key role in industrial competitiveness, risk management will be a key element in business decision making RISKMAN improves safety and reliability by systematic risk management

  4. Motivation and justification RISKMAN will strengthen the European industrial competitiveness as a provider of products, processes and services representing world excellence in terms of safety and reliability. The novelty of this approach is to integrate fields with strong experience and high level safety and reliability related knowledge and skills with new business opportunities, with applications of new evolving technologies, with public security issues and with legislation aspects to form a holistic concept.

  5. Forerunner: NUCLEAR INDUSTRY High awareness: CHEMICAL INDUSTRY POWERPLANTS AVIATION OFF SHORE PROCESS INDUSTRY ENERGY SYSTEMS Low awareness: MARINE TRANSPORT RAIL AND ROAD TRANSPORT CONSTRUCTION MANUFACTURING CONSUMER PRODUCTS INFORMATION SYSTEMS PUBLIC SYSTEMS FOOD PRODUCTION SOCIETAL FUNCTIONS UNDERSTANDING RISKS AND CONSEQUENCES

  6. Probabilistic risk analysis methods Condition monitoring: sensors, wireless communication, signal processing Diagnostic techniques: neural networks, fuzzy logic, expert systems Material and component lifetime estimation System modelling and control techniques, meta-modelling Design for reliability methods Inherent safety in design Safety management systems Intelligent safety and reliability information management Data bases, data collection, data validation New business concepts: availability contracts, capacity contracts Human behaviour in stressed situations Human error analysis Organisational interactions Training, education Legislation, standardisation TOOLS AVAILABLE OR UNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR IMPROVED SAFETY AND RELIABILITY

  7. RISKMAN Research Areas RA1. Integrated Approach to Risk Management (meta-modelling, networking, dynamic risk-assesment & safety and risk management grade) RA2. Systems Performance Monitoring and Diagnostics RA3. Human-Technology Interaction RA4. Business Models Promoting Risk Management RA5. Public Safety and Environment Protection RA6. IT and Infrastructural Security

  8. Motivation and justification There is a need to work out improved techniques, methods and guidelines for better risk management This is not enough! We need implementation of safety culture on all levels - both SME:s and large companies that control assets, production, products and services Safety and risk management should be a key value in the European companies and communities How is this done?

  9. RISKMAN vision “20 % of companies and communities in Europe have a Safety & Risk Management Grade (SRMG) in their balance 2008”

  10. Comparable to: “Basel II” for finance / loans “Seveso II” for environment ISO 9001 : 2000 Integrates: Technical considerations Business / financial considerations Environmental considerations Human factor considerations Risk perception and communication considerations SRMG - Safety and Risk Management Grade

  11. RA1. Integrated approach to risk management New / alternative methods RA2. Systems performance monitoring and diagnostics Technology RA6. Information technology and infrastructural security RA1. Integrated approach to risk management RA1. Integrated approach to risk management Implementation of Safety and Risk Management Grade concept (SRMG) Technology RA3. Human-technology interaction Precise definition of goals, specification and requirements for SRMG Integration Implementation Human factors RA4. Business models promoting risk management Business RA5. Public safety and environment protection 2006 Environment RISKMAN Roadmap of RA’s and SRMG 2003

  12. RESEARCH AND DEVE- LOPMENT PROJECTS OUTPUT EVALUATION PROJECTS OUTPUT IMPLEMEN-TATION OUTPUT RA1. Integration of risk management, SRMG concept Pilot 1 Corrections Commu- nication and training Guide- lines Recomm- endations for regu- lations RISKMAN VISION: ”20 % have SRMG in com- pany and commu- nity balance year 2008” Pilot 2 RA2. System performance monitoring and diagnostics Evaluation of effects and benefits RA3. Human-technology interaction Pilot 3 Region 1 RA4. Business models for risk management Pilot 4 Region 2 RISKMAN CONCEPT AND GUIDE- LINES Quantifi- cation / assess- ment of SRMG Pilot 5 RA5. Public safety and environment protection Region 3 RA6. IT and infra- structural security Region n Pilot n 2003-2006 2006 2005-2006 2007 2006-2008 2008 RISKMAN ROADMAP

  13. RISKMAN Coord: VTT (FI), MPA (G), TNO (NL) RA1 Integra- ted approach to risk manage- ment, Crd:MPA (G), VTT (FI), Risö RA2 Systems performance monitoring and diagnostics Crd: BZF (H), ARC (A), MPA(G),Metlogic (B), Univ.Ljub, VTT(FI) RA3 Human- technology interaction Crd: CETIM (F), ISPRA (I), VTT(FI), RISÖ(DK), SITEF(N), INERIS(F) RA4 Business models for risk management Crd: OinetiQ (UK), JRC(I) RA5 Public safety and en- vironment protection Crd: TNO (NL), JRC (I), INERIS (F) RA6 IT and infrastructural security Crd: AIA (E), Frhr (G), MIT (G), ARC (A) EC 6FP, TPA3: Nano, materials & processes, 3.4.3.2, DL 6.3.03 EC 6FP, TPA2: Information society tech, 2.3.2.9, DL 15.10.03 EC 6FP: Science and Society, 4.3.3, any time until 9.12.2003 RISKMAN Structure of Research Areas and Subprojects

  14. TECHNICAL “Probability of Failure” FINANCIAL “Value at Risk ” ENVIRONMENTAL “Hazard” INTEGRATION HUMAN “Qualitative” SRMG = SAFETY AND RISK MANAGENEMT GRADE New Approach: META-MODELLING RISKMAN RA1: Integrated Approach to Risk Management

  15. Coordinator: MPA, Germany Vicecoordinator: VTT, Finland Industrial leader: DVN, Norway?? Alexadar Jovanivitc Raija Koivisto NN Subprojects: Deliverables: Result from RA1: SP11. Meta-Modelling of Complex Systems, VTT, Raija Koivisto, 2004-06, 7 ry, TNO,….. A novel meta-modelling based generic method for risk management of complex networks and structures RISKMAN Integrated Meta-Modelling Rsik Management Concept = Integates traditional technical (Probability of Failure), environmental (Hazard) and fiancial (Value at Risk) approaches by meta-modelling techniques New knowledge about integration of complex production, network, organisational and business risk management systems SP12. RISKMAN RA1 Subprojects and DeliverablesIntegrated Approach to Risk Management

  16. WIRELESS AND REMOTE COM- MUNICATION DIAGNOSTIC MUL- TIPLE SOURCE ALGORITHMS NANO- AND MEMS SENSORS INTELLIGENT LEARNING SENSORS DISTRIBUTED AUTONOMOUS DIAG- NOSTIC NETWORKS INTEGRATION LOCAL AND RE- MOTE DIAGNOSTIC CENTERS LIFE-TIME PREDICTION AND CONTROL FOCUSED INNOVATIVE APPLICATIONS PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS RISKMAN RA2: Systems Performance,Monitoring and Diagnostics

  17. RISKMAN RA2: System Performance Monitoring and Diagnostics 1. Material degradation control GENERIC DYNAMIC AUTOMATIC DIA- GNOSTIC CONCEPT DIAGNOSTICS AND PROGNOSTICS 6. Self-diagnostics, learning and tutor fucktions 7. Multi-modelling, heuristic, inversion techniques, genetic algorithms 8. Probabilistic methods 9. Hybrid dynamic diagnostics: NN, FL, ES, BN 10. Remote super-vision, diagnostic networks 11. Decision support, safety barriers 2. Mechanical component lifetime prediction APPLICATION EVALUATIONS IN Steel plant (SI) Power plant (PL) Off shore rig (NO) Paper machine (FI) Mobile vechicle (FI) SME product (??) SMRG = Safety and Risk Mana- gement Grade 3. Instrumentation lifetime prediction 4. New sensor applications, MEMS fibre optical, Bragg CONDITION AND LIFETIME PREDICTIONS, RISK ESTIMATIONS 5. Multisensor diagnostic methodology

  18. RISKMAN RA2 Subprojects and DeliverablesSystems Performance Monitoring and Diagnostics Coordinator: VTT, Finland Vicecoordinator: BZF, Hungary Industrial leader: Metalogic, Belgium?? Kenneth Holmberg Lazlo Toth Marnix Surgeon Actions: Deliverables: Result from RA2: Task 7-9. Hybrid dynamic diagnostics, multimodelling, New methods for life- time prediction resulting in probability estimations of failure risks of devices and systems New techniques to use micro- and nanosensors, wireless communication and remote diagnostics in an integrated way to monitor the condition and safety of devices New knowledge about integrating multiple- sensor and -system information for diagnostic and prognostic purposes A generic dynamic concept for automatic diagnostics and prog- nostics Task 6. Self diagnostics, learning and tutor functions, probabilistic methods Task 1-3. Material, component and instrumentation lifetime prediction A probability based method for lifetime prediction of mecha- nical and electronic componens Task 4-5 Multisensor systems and novel sensor applications, MEMS, fibre optics, Bragg grits, nanosensors A method for optimising disag- nostic functions by multisensor approach and using novel sensor technology Task 10-11. Diagnostic networks, remote supervision, decision support A method for building remote diagnostic centers including learning, tutor and decision support functions

  19. PSYCHOLOGICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS RELIABILITY AND DEPENDABILITY ANALYSIS PROBABILISTIC CALCULATIONS REGULATIONS AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS STANDARDS DECISION MAKING MODELS COGNITIVE WORK ANALYSIS INTEGRATION TOOLS FOR THE IMPROVEMENT OF HUMAN PERFORMANCE HUMAN-BASED RISK ASSESMENT AND MANAGEMENT NEW METHODS HUMAN COOPERATION AND COMMUNICATION MODELS RISKMAN RA3: Human-TechnologyInteraction

  20. Coordinator: CETIM, France Vicecoordinator: JRC/ISPRA, Italy?? Industrial leader: MIT, Germany?? Philippe Lubineau NN NN Subprojects: Deliverables: Result from RA3: SP30. Transfer or modification of existing knowledge from forerunner domains to industrial areas New methods to measure and express risks related to human and technology inter- action with hybrid qualitative/quantitative techniques A new approach of companies’ organization design, taking into account formal management and informal norms and values (human behaviour based method). Methods about how to relate the actions of humans in technical systems to estimating its risk probability and consequences SP31. Integrated reliability and psycho- logical analysis method for risk assessment, SP32: improvement of human performances by the use of new technologies. Set of indicators about human performance in relation with the SMRG SP33: influences of the working conditions evolutions (flexibility, automation, globalization, ICT, …) on the informal norms and rules of the organisations New tools of monitoring or measurement to improve human performances related to risk management SP34: operator’s decision making process when unexpected situations arise. RISKMAN RA3 Subprojects and DeliverablesHuman-Technology Interaction

  21. RISKMAN RA4: Business ModelsPromoting Risk Management ENERGY RISKS ORGANISATION MODELS LONG-TERM AVAILABILITY AGREEMENTS ADDED VALUE SERVICES DELIVERING CAPACITY PUBLIC OPINION RISKS - BRAND & REPUTATION RISKS FINANCIAL RISKS INTEGRATION SECURE NETWORK/SYSTEM OPERATION RISK MANAGE- MENT BUSINESS MODELS BENCHMARKING SME - SAFETY AND RISK MANA- GEMENT GRADE STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT INNOVATIVE ACTIVITIES

  22. RISKMAN RA4 Subprojects and DeliverablesBusiness Models Promoting Risk Management Coordinator: QinetiQ, UK Vicecoordinator: ??? Industrial leader: ??? Brian Spedding NN NN Subprojects: Deliverables: Result from RA4: • SP41. PRIKNOW - Risk-related knowledge management for dispersed organisations (VTT) • SP42. MoRIS - Management of risks in projects and processes for SMEs (STZ R-Tech) • SP43. ADDS - Added value products in service businesses (VTT) • SP44. AscRisk - Europortal for assessment and management of commerce and business risks in operation of SME’s and daily life of European citizen (MIT GmbH) • SP45. FAMEMAIN - Framework methodology for maintenance benchmarking • SP46 BELIRIEN - Benchmarking liabilities for risks from energy systems (JRC-IE) • SP47 SME Risk Portal - Providing access to risk management expertise • Innovative methodologies that account for and combine business risk-related factors • Tools to allow benchmarking of an organisation’s safety maintenance, to drive better equipment availability and safer working environment • A common framework to compare the treatment of risk in different domain areas • Effective integration of safety/risk management into revisions of general business models • A survey and analysis of implementation of safety/risk management in multiple domains • Toolsets to enable business risk management • An internet portal to assist SMEs and European citizens to gain access to relevant expertise relating to business risks • Toolsets to facilitate the management of risk-related knowledge New techniques and methodologies for handling risk and uncertainty, to assist actors (especially SMEs) with innovative activities and strategic decision making Innovative, effective and robust business models that will deliver capacity, long-term availability agreements and added value products, in an environment characterised by multiple and interacting risks New knowledge about the relationship between value, costs risks and safety

  23. MEDICINE, HOSPITAL & HEALTH RELATED RISKS NATURAL AND MAN-MADE RISKS DIAGNOSTIC, THERAPEUTIC STRATEGIES INTEGRAL RISK ASS- ESSMENT OF LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS INTEGRATION IMPROVED METHODS CROWD AND PANIC BEHAVIOUR SRMG = SAFETY AND RISK MANAGENEMT GRADE INFO. & COMM., DECISION SUPPORT FOR EMENRGENCY RESPONSE TEAMS RISKMAN RA5: Public Safety andEnvironmental Protection

  24. Coordinator: TNO, Netherlands Vicecoordinator: ??? Industrial leader: Alps, Austria?? NN NN NN Subprojects: Deliverables: Result from RA5: SP51. Integral risk assessment of large scale systems and structures A SP52. Guideline for public/stakeholder interaktion for decision making in spatial planning SP53. Fire and attack resistant structures and conceptual design for emergency measures SP54. Model for crowd behaviour in emergency situations SP55. Management of natural and man-made risks in mountain areas, Univ. Insbruck SP56. Management of risks pointing towards human health and human life, Steinbeis technologiezentrum RISKMAN RA5 Subprojects and DeliverablesPublic Safety and Environment Protection New methods that integrate the risk assesment of public and environment threting activities with crowd and panic control and information systems for emergency response teams New solutions to make structures more resistant to fires, explosions, toxic and terrorist attacks New knowledge about human behaviour and how to control it in emergency and panic situations

  25. DEPENDABILITY OF IT AND COMUNIC. INFRASTRUCTURES SAFETY AND SECURITY FRAME- WOKRS FROM NON-IT SECTORS CIVIL SAFETY AND SECURITY APPLICATIONS ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT BY ADVANCED IT IT RISK MANAGEMENT INTEGRATION PUBLIC TRUST AND CONFIDENCE IN IT IT SUPPORT FOR RISK MANAGEMENT & DECISION SUPPORT SW TOOLS, PLATFORMS, ARCHITECTURES NEW IT RISK MANA- GEMENT SOLUTIONS AND SRMG FOR IT RISKMAN RA6: InformationTechnology and Infrastructural Security

  26. Coordinator: GROPPO AIA, Spain?? Vicecoord: Frauhofer, Germany?? Industrial leader: ?? Marta Pierra Ysern?? Frank Bomarius?? NN Subprojects: Deliverables: Result from RA6: SP61. Photograph transmission service for rescue, YIT A New integrated methods and platforms for risk management of information systems and networks for environmental management and civil security applications New knowledge about the vulnerability of the different parts and functions in information and infrastructural systems and how they can be estimated and controlled SP62. RISKMAN RA6 Subprojects and DeliverablesInformation Technology and Infrastructural Security

  27. RESEARCH AND DEVE- LOPMENT PROJECTS OUTPUT EVALUATION PROJECTS OUTPUT IMPLEMEN-TATION OUTPUT RA1. Integration of risk management, SRMG concept Pilot 1 Corrections Commu- nication and training Guide- lines Recomm- endations for regu- lations RISKMAN VISION: ”20 % have SRMG in com- pany and commu- nity balance year 2008” Pilot 2 RA2. System performance monitoring and diagnostics Evaluation of effects and benefits RA3. Human-technology interaction Pilot 3 Region 1 RA4. Business models for risk management Pilot 4 Region 2 RISKMAN CONCEPT AND GUIDE- LINES Quantifi- cation / assess- ment of SRMG Pilot 5 RA5. Public safety and environment protection Region 3 RA6. IT and infra-structural security Region n Pilot n 2003-2006 2006 2005-2006 2007 2006-2008 2008 RISKMAN ROADMAP

  28. Need for a Safety and Risk Management Grade If we by a car - how do we know the risks? • The car company assures the reliability - but can we trust the company? How do we know the risk managing level of the company? • The balance gives us its economical value • The stock market gives the market value based on balance, expectations, trends etc • But where are the risks evaluated? We need a value for the Safety and Risk Management Grade in the companies balance!

  29. Safety and Risk Management Grade We need new methods and techniques to improve safety and reliability We need guidelines about how to take them into use We need methods to evaluate how they have been implemented We need a number to show how safety and risk management has been implemented in companies This should be a value in the balance

  30. Safety and Risk Management Grade Same Safety and Risk Management Grade for large and small companies Same thinking in communities, how safety and security is included in the community balance Needs hierarchical structure of guidelines Easy and quick method - big uncertainty Detailed and large method - accurate and credible SRMG should be a competitiveness argument like ISO9000 - not mandatory by regulations

  31. LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE (LC) SAFETY AND RISK MANAGEMENT LEVEL (SRL) LOW = 1 Quick Spider-web Estimation (1 p.) Simple Method: - short (5 p.) - large (20 p.) Moderate Method: - short - large Detailed Method: - medium - large Detailed Method + internal auditing Detailed Method + external auditing Detailed Method + certification, accreditation SRMG = LC X SRL MEDIUM = 5 HIGH = 10 Hierarchical SRMG Guideline Structure SAFETY AND RISK MANGE- GEMENT GRADE (SRMG)

  32. Governing Council - Senior partners repr. - External experts - EC representatives - Funding agency´s repr. STEERING Interest Group - Industrial org´s repr. - Interest org´s repr - Societal org´s repr. Steering Committee - Repr. from partners - IP & RA co-ordinators Co-ordinators Group - IP co-ordinator - RA co-ordinators Management Team, VTT - IP co-ordinator: K.Holmberg - Administrative officer - Financial officer - Legal adviser RA1 Scientific Advisory Board - RA1 co-ordinator - RA1 sucoordinator - RA1 Industrial leader - RA1 partners repr. RA2 SAB - cord - subc - i.l. - p.r. RA3 SAB - cord - subc - i.l. - p.r. RA4 SAB - cord - subc - i.l. - p.r. RA5 SAB - cord - subc - i.l. - p.r. OPERATION Dissemination Team - Web,seminars,newsletters - Training, regional diss. Delivery Team - Equalising guidelines, regulations, standards, recommendations Research Projects Research Projects RISKMAN Management and Organisation

  33. Role of participants during IP preparation Core group: • responsible for the planning phase • participants committed to EoI + needed partners from e.g. Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic Interest Group: • potential partners to participate with projects • are kept informed during the preparation phase

  34. Role of participants during IP preparation Business Organisations: • companies planned to be involved in the development and evaluation pilot projects Supporting Organisations: • European and national business sector, legislation, standardisation etc organisations • key organisations from which we need support

  35. IP Consortium Management Governing Council: • senior partner representatives, external experts, EC repr., funding agency repr. Scientific Advisory Boards / RA: • scientific representatives from partners Steering Committee: • representatives from partners Consortium: partners Interest Group: legislation, training etc org:s

  36. IP Global Budget • Total volume: 70 Me • Annual volume: 14 Me first 4 years and7 Me fifth year + 7 Me for co-ordination (max 6 %)

  37. Calendar for RISKMAN preparation • 21.1.2003, RA expected results and deliverables from RA coordinators • 22.1.2003 Subproject call/template sent out • 3.2.2003, Dead line for subproject proposals • 7.2.2003, Draft from RA co-ordinators on RA content • 15.1.-10.2.2003 : • Collect numbers for basic argumentation, radical breakthroughs • Contacts to industry in each RA • Contacts to interest organisations, other EC projects and networks • 13.2.2003, Core Group meeting, Stuttgart 9.00-16.00 • 18-28.2.2003, intensive preparation of the final version of the proposal • 26.2.2003, network/video meeting • 4.3.2003, RISKMAN proposal delivered to EC • 6.3.2003 Dead line for Stage 1

More Related