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Campaigns & Elections

Campaigns & Elections. “(Supporter) Governor, you have the vote of every thinking person. (Stevenson) That’s not enough madam, We need a majority”. By Loren Miller. TYPES OF BALLOTS.

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Campaigns & Elections

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  1. Campaigns & Elections “(Supporter) Governor, you have the vote of every thinking person. (Stevenson) That’s not enough madam, We need a majority” By Loren Miller

  2. TYPES OF BALLOTS • Australian Ballot: a secret ballot that is prepared, distributed and counted by the government; used in all elections since 1888. • This replaced oral voting or using different colored ballots prepared by the political parties. • Office-Block Ballot: all candidates for the same office are grouped under the title of that office. Parties don’t like this as it emphasizes the office and not the party and also discourages straight-party voting.

  3. TYPES OF BALLOTS • Party Column Ballot: all of a party’s candidates are arranged in one column under the party label and symbol. This encourages straight-party voting. • Voting By Mail: used for absentee ballots; Oregon uses this exclusively; they do not have any polling places.

  4. THE NOMINATION PROCESS • Defining Possible Candidates and Leading Contenders (TheInvisiblePrimary) 2. The Primaries and Delegate Selection (Initial Contests and Mist Clearing) 3. The Convention

  5. THE NOMINATION PROCESS Defining Possible Candidates and Leading Contenders (Testing the Waters) “No one wants to back a loser” • Key Money Raisers (“Fat Cats”) • Hollywood Influentials • Media Commentary • Party Influentials • Interest Groups

  6. THE NOMINATION PROCESS Testing the Waters in 2012: Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Rick Perry Michelle Bachmann Herman Cain Donald Trump

  7. Invisible Primary, 2011

  8. THE NOMINATION PROCESS The Primaries and Delegate Selection Primaries and Caucus • Importance of primaries: • In 1912 12 Democratic 13 Republican • In 1980 31 Democratic 35 Republican • In 2012 38 Democratic 39 Republican

  9. PRIMARIES • Closed Primary: only declared members of the party can vote in the party’s primary. • Open Primary: any voter can vote in either party’s primary without declaring a party affiliation. • Blanket Primary: a voter can vote for candidates of more than one party. • Run-Off Primary: if no candidate receives a majority of votes, the top two must compete in another primary. • “Top Two” Primary: all candidates appear on the same ballot and the top two run in the general election.

  10. CAUCUSES • A party meeting held where voters can select delegates to attend a convention. • In Texas, the night of the primary the parties hold conventions. Delegates are selected at the precinct convention to attend the county or district convention and this convention would select delegates to attend the state convention where delegates are selected for the national convention.

  11. When States Select Delegates 2008 2004 2000 2012* *Many states had their selection process delayed because of redistricting challenges

  12. THE NOMINATION PROCESS The Primaries and Delegate Selection Primaries and Caucus • Until 1968 • delegates selected by party leaders • all states are important • party dominated

  13. THE NOMINATION PROCESS The Primaries and Delegate Selection Primaries and Caucus • Since 1968 • candidate dominated • most delegates selected by primaries • early states are important • closed conventions

  14. Changing Leaders

  15. THE NOMINATION PROCESS The Convention Purpose • Role of the media • Cross-section of the American public? • Likelihood of deadlock? • Post-convention “surge” 2012: R: Tampa D: Charlotte

  16. DECLINING COVERAGE Coverage on NBC, ABC and CBS

  17. THE NOMINATION PROCESS Week of the year that the candidate won a majority of delegates

  18. THE ELECTION A Majority of American Voters Decide How to Vote Before the Fall Campaign Begins. Many decide even before the primaries.

  19. THE ELECTION Voters who supported Romney (in %) Voters who supported Obama (in %) 2012 Election

  20. THE MONEY FACTOR In Millions

  21. THE MONEY FACTOR Presidential candidates may receive public funding --if you receive public funding, then you are limited as to the amount that you can spend

  22. THE MONEY FACTOR The Federal Election Commission limits the maximum individual contributionto federal candidates -- in 2008 the maximum was $2,300 -- every year this figure is adjusted for inflation -- small donors typically make up a small proportion of the money raised by a candidate (less than 20%) -- there are no limits for a candidate to “self-finance” their campaign

  23. THE MONEY FACTOR 527s: (from a section of the IRS Code) -- organizations (individuals and PACs) may finance issue ads that advocate a particular policy but may not endorse a specific candidate -- there is no limit to the size of contributions to these groups

  24. THE MONEY FACTOR Political Action Committees (PACs): -- corporations and unions as well as trade and professional groups form PACs -- in 2010 the Supreme Court ruled that corporations and unions were “people” and that there could be no limit on the amount of money that they could spend to “advocate or electioneering” Citizens United v. FEC

  25. Super Pac Donors Republican Donors: 1. 10 m. Sheldon Adelson (Casino owner) 2. 10 m. Miriam Adelson 3. 10 m. Bob Perry (Houston homebuilder) 4. 2.8 m. Oxbow Carbon LLC (oil and gas [Koch]) 5. 2.3 m. Harold Simmons (Dallas billionaire) 6. 2.2 m. Julian Robertson (hedge fund company) Democratic Donors: 1. 3.5 m. Fred Eychaner (Chicago media mogul) 2. 3.5 m. James Simons (hedge fund company 3. 3.0 m. Jeffrey Katzenburg (Dreamworks Animation) 4. 2.0 m. Pipefitters Union 5. 2.0 m. Irwin Jacobs (Qualcomm) 6. 2.0 m. Jon Stryker (Gay rights activist)

  26. Super Pac Funds Restore our Future Con-Romney 96.7m American Crossroads Con 56.8m Priorities USA Action Lib-Obama 35.6m Winning our Future Con-Gingrich 23.9m Club for Growth Con 13.8m American Bridge Lib 8.6m Red, White & Blue Con-Santorum 8.3m AFL-CIO Lib 7.1m Congressional Leadership Con 6.5m Make Us Great Again Con-Perry 5.6m

  27. THE ELECTION

  28. THE ELECTION The Electoral College Why?? How do we choose a president without political parties (they were frowned upon), without national campaigns (the office seeks the person rather than the person seeks the office), and without upsetting the balance between the executive and legislative branches and the national and state governments?

  29. THE ELECTION The Electoral College Why?? Have Congress choose the president: This would lead to hard feelings among members of Congress and would lead to unsightly political bargaining Have the state legislatures choose the president: This would lead to an erosion of federal authority as the president would be too beholding to certain states Have the president elected by direct popular vote: People would not be aware of a candidate who was not local and would vote for their “favorite son” and no person would emerge with a popular majority. Finally, the “Committee of Eleven” proposed an indirect election of the president through a College of Electors.

  30. THE ELECTION The Electoral College The Electoral College was expected to be composed of “free electors” who could vote for anyone. The person who came in first would become president and the runner-up would be vice-president. If nobody had a majority of votes, then the election would go into the House. Our Founding Fathers expected that almost all elections would be determined in the House of Representatives as they expected many candidates to receive electoral votes. This worked well until the formation of political parties. By 1796, the electors were no longer “free electors” but had become “partisan electors.”

  31. THE ELECTION The Electoral College Each state has the number of electors equal to the number of their members in the House and the Senate H + S = # of Electors (Texas) 36 + 2 = 38 Electors (USA) 435 + 100 + 3 (DC) = 538 Electors A majority of 538 (270) is needed to win

  32. THE ELECTION The Electoral College • The objective is to obtain 270 electoral votes • Instead of 1 presidential election, we have 51 separate presidential elections • To win Texas’s electoral vote, the candidate must obtain a plurality of popular votes in the state • So where does a candidate campaign?? • In 2004, 82% of party resources were spent in only 9 states.

  33. The Battleground States2012 New Hampshire (4) Virginia (13) North Carolina (15) Ohio (18) Iowa (6) Colorado (9) Nevada (6) Florida (29) Wisconsin (10) (110) http://www.270towin.com

  34. The Battleground States2012 96% of the spending on television ads between April 11th and November 6th by presidential campaigns and allied groups went to the battleground states. 99% of the campaign stops by the presidential or vice-presidential candidates were in the battleground states.

  35. How Presidents and Vice Presidents are Chosen Acetate P–2

  36. POPULAR VOTE VS.ELECTORAL VOTE

  37. POPULAR VOTE VS.ELECTORAL VOTE

  38. POPULAR VOTE VS.ELECTORAL VOTE Robin Williams

  39. THE ELECTION The Electoral College The Electoral College has reversed the outcome three times: 1876 (Hayes v. Tilden), 1888 (Harrison v. Cleveland), 2000 (Bush v. Gore). The House of Representatives has decided two elections: 1800 (Jefferson v. Burr), 1824 (Adams v. Jackson v. Clay) In 18 of 56 presidential elections (Washington to Obama), the winning candidate did not have a majority of popular votes.

  40. THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE The Electoral College violates democratic principles: State Electoral Votes Population +/- Represented CA 55 37.34m -15.4% TX 38 25.27m -13.6% NY 29 19.42m -14.2% FL 29 18.90m -11.8% IL 20 12.86m -10.7% WY 3 0.57m +203.4% DC 3 0.60m +186.5% VT 3 0.63m +173.5% ND 3 0.68m +155.1% AK 3 0.72m +138.9%

  41. ELECTORAL COLLEGE REFORMS • Direct Popular Vote • Proportional Voting • District Plan

  42. DISTRICT PLAN 3 Districts = 5 Electoral Votes R = 110 D = 95 R = 75 D = 110 R = 100 D = 85 Used in Maine and Nebraska

  43. CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES Select a Theme: -- most campaign themes are not issue oriented, but are focused on a candidates’ personal qualities or image -- “Change we can believe in” -- “Stay the course” -- “Fights for the taxpayer” -- “Cares about you” -- Themes must be stated in concise and catchy sound bites JibJab

  44. CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES Negative Campaigning: -- a media campaign seeks to define the opponent in negative terms -- the first negative ad was made by Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and paints his opponent, Barry Goldwater, as an irresponsible person who is likely to use nuclear weapons in Vietnam (Daisy Girl) -- John Kerry, a decorated veteran of the Vietnam conflict (one Silver Star, a Bronze Star and three Purple Hearts) was accused of supplying aid and comfort to the North Vietnamese by speaking about American atrocities committed during the war (Swift Boat)

  45. CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES Negative Campaigning: )1. Advertise early if you have the money. 2. Go negative early, often, and right through election day. 3. Appeal to the heart and gut, rather than to the head. 4. Define your opponent to the voters before he or she can define him/herself or you. 5. If attacked, hit back harder. 6. It’s easier to give voters a negative impression of your opponent than it is to improve their image of you. Going Negative

  46. CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES News Management: -- News coverage of the candidate is more credible than paid advertisements -- Campaigns are planned to get the maximum favorable “free” exposure on the evening news -- So each day a candidate must do something newsworthy and provide good photo ops Military Education Law Enforcement

  47. CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES Paid Advertising: -- paid spots on television are usually only 15 or 30 seconds long -- television time is expensive -- little attention is paid to issues; instead the ads focus on emotions BiographicalBackfireBackfireCommander in Chief Dole Kerry Obama Bush/Quayle

  48. IMPACT OF CAMPAIGNING Is a good campaign the key to victory? -- probably not What is the purpose of a campaign? -- reinforce voters’ preferences for candidates -- activate voters to contribute money or ring doorbells -- convert voters to your candidate

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