Campaigns and Elections

1. Campaigns and Elections History and Strategy

2. I. History • The non-candidate (1792-1824): Early candidates considered it unseemly to “campaign.” Organizations and friendly papers do the work.

3. 1. Campaigns are Personal and Ugly (1800 example) • Jefferson: Adams has a “hideous hermaphroditical character, which has neither the force and firmness of a man, nor the gentleness and sensibility of a woman” • Jefferson hires a “hatchet man” for his worst slurs. James Callendar. He alleges Adams is bent on war with France • Callendar is imprisoned for slander under Adams • Jefferson fails to aid him upon release  Callendar reveals Jefferson’s affair with his slave Sally Hemings • Pro-Adams papers: • Jefferson is “a mean-spirited, low-lived fellow, the son of a half-breed Indian squaw, sired by a Virginia mulatto father.” • “Murder, robbery, rape, adultery, and incest will all be openly taught and practiced”

4. 2. “Ads” are editorials and editorial cartoons • Example: Divine intervention saves America from Jefferson’s tyranny

5. B. Symbolic Politics, 1828-1860 • Symbols useful for personalized campaigns – reflect personality traits • Also useful when illiteracy is widespread • Origins: Jackson’s campaign of 1828 (Old Hickory). • Jackson learns from failure to campaign in 1824, mobilizes mass support • Characterized by de-emphasis of issue positions (Jackson refuses to render opinion on Adams economic policies)  1828 might be most negative campaign in history

6. c. Mudslinging in 1828: Adams Targets Jackson • One Adams paper: “General Jackson's mother was a common prostitute, brought to this country by the British soldiers! She afterward married a mulatto man, with whom she had several children, of which number General Jackson is one!” • Jackson accused of murder for ordering execution of six militiamen for desertion in War of 1812 • Jackson accused of adultery and his wife of bigamy (her divorce may not have been final when she married Jackson)

7. 1828: Adams Campaign Song: Jackson = “Plague and Pestilence” • “Little Know Ye Who’s Comin’” • Sample lines: • Fire's comin', swords is comin', • Pistols, guns and knives is comin', • Famine's comin', bannin's comin', • If John Quincy not be comin'! • Slavery's comin', knavery's comin‘… • Tears are comin', fears are comin', • Plague and pestilence is comin', • Hatin's comin’, Satan's comin‘… • So wonderfully (horribly) negative it was covered by band Piñataland for use against Bush in 2004

8. d. 1828: Jackson Strikes Back • Rumor: Adams, while serving as American ambassador to Russia, had procured an American girl for the sexual services of the Russian czar  Jackson men call Adams a “pimp” • Adams charged with using government money to buy a billiard table for his own amusement (he bought it himself)

9. 4. 1840: Log Cabin and Hard Cider • Memorabilia: Hundreds of objects (ribbons and postcards) emphasize log cabin

10. 5. Issues Overtake Symbolsa. 1848: Free Soil Campaigns against Slavery (Campaign songs commonly set to well-known tunes like Yankee Doodle or Auld Lang Syne) • Note: VP candidate is son of Pres JQ Adams, son of Pres Adams

11. b. 1856: Last Gasp of the Whigs: Fillmore (W) between Fremont (R) and Buchanan (D)

12. c. Republicans vs. Democrats: The Slavery Issue • 1856: “Clear the Tracks” (Republican song about Fremont – refers to Kansas violence) • 1860: “The Flag of Liberty” (Patriotism associated with policies to “break oppression’s chain”)

14. C. Politics of Division, 1860-1892 • Symbols now = Issues. 1. 1860 and 1864 – focus on Union

15. 2. “Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion” 1868-1892 • “Waving the Bloody Shirt:” Republicans criticize Democrats as party of treason (Rebellion). 1868 Grant slogan: “Vote as You Shot”

16. 1868: Anti-Democratic Cartoons

17. 1868: Democrats run on white power • Sample lyrics (sung to Auld Lang Syne) • Let, then, all freeborn patriots, • Join with a brave intent • To vindicate our Father’s choice, • “A white man’s Government.”

18. 1876: Robert Ingersoll Reminds Listeners of Democratic Treason • Speech to Union veterans of Civil War in Indianapolis “Every ordinance of secession that was drawn was drawn by a Democrat. Every man that endeavored to tear the old flag from the heaven that it enriches was a Democrat. Every man that tried to destroy this nation was a Democrat. Every enemy this great Republic has had for twenty years has been a Democrat. Every man that shot Union soldiers was a Democrat. Every man that denied to the Union prisoners even the worm-eaten crust of famine, and when some poor, emaciated Union patriot, driven to insanity by famine, saw in an insane dream the face of his mother, and she beckoned him and he followed, hoping to press her lips once again against his fevered face, and when he stepped one step beyond the dead line the wretch that put the bullet through his loving, throbbing heart was and is a Democrat. Every man that loved slavery better than liberty was a Democrat. The man that assassinated Abraham Lincoln was a Democrat. Every man that sympathized with the assassin — every man glad that the noblest President ever elected was assassinated, was a Democrat. Every man that wanted the privilege of whipping another man to make him work for him for nothing and pay him with lashes on his naked back, was a Democrat. Every man that raised bloodhounds to pursue human beings was a Democrat. Every man that clutched from shrieking, shuddering, crouching mothers, babes from their breasts, and sold them into slavery, was a Democrat. … Soldiers, every scar you have on your heroic bodies was given you by a Democrat. Every scar, every arm that is lacking, every limb that is gone, is a souvenir of a Democrat. I want you to recollect it.”

19. b. Democrat-Catholic alliance (Romanism) • Anti-immigrant sentiment in general, plus • Opposition of pro-Republican English-American families to Ireland, plus • Dislike of Midwestern Protestants for Catholicism • Led to Irish-Democrat alliance. Republicans run anti-Catholic and anti-Irish campaigns

21. Fear of Immigration, 1884

22. c. Prohibition issue (Rum) • Connected to Irish issue (stereotyping) • National Prohibition Party established but fails (Republicans simply shift to incorporate issue) • 1880-1890: Wave of state anti-saloon laws (issue more potent locally than nationally)

23. 3. Machine Politics and the Issue of Character • Republicans vs. Liberal Republicans: The debate over civil service reform (see 1876 in Election Day) • 1884: Liberal Republicans support the Democrat Cleveland. Unusually competitive election  dirtiest campaign of 19th century • Cleveland: “Public Office is a Public Trust” (implies opponent is corrupt)

24. ii. Cleveland’s Sex Scandal • Cleveland believed to have fathered child with well-known prostitute. • Accepts responsibility • Republican chant: “Ma, Ma, where’s my Pa?”

25. iii. Blaine’s Railroad Scandal • Blaine wrote letters during scandal implying he took money for railroad contracts. Last sentence of one letter = “Burn this letter.” • Democratic chant: • “Blaine, Blaine, James G. Blaine! The continental liar from the state of Maine, Burn this letter!”

26. iv. Denouement: The battle for New York • Blaine fails to immediately disavow “Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion” slogan  Irish voters turn to Cleveland • New York World publishes exaggerated depictions of Blaine feasting at Republican dinner while country is in depression • Blaine loses New York by 1149 votes

27. v. The Sequel: Dirty Tricks Unseat Cleveland in 1888 • Cleveland vulnerable in New York's sizable Irish community after his administration negotiated a fisheries treaty with the British Empire (hated by the Irish)  Cross-pressured voters! • Republican George Osgoodby sent a letter to the British ambassador to the United States under the pretense that he was a British expatriate named Charles Murchison who wanted to know which candidate would best "favor England's interests." • Ambassador endorses Cleveland  Republicans use “Murchison Letter” to drive a wedge between Cleveland and Irish voters

28. 5. Publicity stunts and technology • Edison’s gramophone allows recorded speeches and campaign songs. • Cleveland 1892: Publicity stunt only (few own gramophones, which are unsuitable for mass listening anyway) • Player piano rolls and cylinders of popular campaign songs become common

29. D. Populism and Progressivism (1896-1920) • Republicans back away from support for civil rights (support for Plessy vs. Ferguson)  race issue loses salience for white voters • Economic issues and social reforms gain prominence • The 1896 Campaign: Free Silver vs. the Full Dinner Pail and the “front porch” strategy -- See Election Day for context • Significant foreign policy differences re-emerge by 1900

31. E. Origins of Polls and Paid Advertisements (1924-1948) • Literary Digest poll • Begun as publicity stunt in 1920, proves remarkably accurate (within 1% in 1932) • Fails miserably in 1936: Predicts landslide for Landon (55 to 41) when real outcome is landslide for Roosevelt (61 to 37) – 20% error! • Why did it fail? Non-representative sample (automobile registrations and telephone books) and voluntary response (2.3 million out of 10 million) • Why did it work for so long? Remarkable consensus and stability in electorate…

32. 2. Gallup and Scientific Polling • Gallup predicts Roosevelt victory with smaller sample (about 2000 vs. 2.3 million) • Gallup also correctly predicts the Literary Digest prediction before the postcards are counted! • Method = quota polling (trying to ensure sample matches proportions in population) • Major failure in 1948: Quota polling replaced with random sampling (still used today)

33. 3. Origins of Mass Media Campaigns • Factors affecting print political advertising: Increased magazine circulation, national newspapers, news magazines (Time founded in 1923), mass literacy

34. Roosevelt turns the “Full Dinner Pail” against Republicans, 1932:

35. b. Local campaigns focus on local issues (diminished party control) • Example: Anti-Japanese racism in California, 1924

36. c. Use of Motion Pictures • Only way to see a candidate speak or watch an event unfold • 1920: “Candidate” Coolidge makes the first political “talkie” • 1934: MGM runs fake “California Election News” newsreels against Upton Sinclair in California governor’s race

37. d. The Effect of Radio • First convention covered by radio in 1924 • National networks emerge from 1926-1927 • Radio ownership (households): • 4.7% in 1924 • 27.5% in 1928 • 60% in 1932 • First paid political spots: President Calvin Coolidge spends more than $100,00 to broadcast his speeches in 1924 • First national political spots: 1928 (52 hours by Democrats, 43 hours by Republicans) • 1932: Democrats use same amount, but Republicans increase to 72 hours!

38. 1928 ad for Zenith radio touts convention coverage!

39. 1932: Republicans increase air time to 72 hours – and lose • Hoover discovers that style matters as much as substance when he angers listeners by speaking too long • Example: Tuesday, October 4, at 8:30 P.M. Speech lasts far more than the expected hour: • “(At 9:30) listeners confidently awaited the President’s concluding words. Confidently and also impatiently, for at 9:30 … Mr. Ed Wynn comes on the air. But Mr. Hoover had only arrived at point 2 of his 12-point program. The populace shifted in its myriad seats; wives looked at husbands; children allowed to remain up until 10 o’clock on Tuesdays looked in alarm at the clock; 20,000 votes shifted to Franklin Roosevelt. At 9:45, Mr. Hoover had arrived at point four; two million Americans switched off their instruments and sent their children to bed weeping.” – The Nation

40. Roosevelt: Master of Radio • Roosevelt addresses audience intimately (aware that people listen to radio in small groups, not huge crowds) • “Fireside chats”

41. F. Dawn of the Television Age • 1948: Coverage of conventions (although few own televisions). 3 of 4 conventions held in Philadelphia to enable widest TV coverage. • Truman prepares 1-minute spot in 1948, but Dewey sees advertising as undignified ignoring advice of consultants

42. 3. 1952: TV is undignified…but effective • "The idea that you can merchandise candidates for high office like breakfast cereal is the ultimate indignity to the democratic process." • Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson, 1956 • Eisenhower has a product jingle in 1952…and wins!

43. Print ads remain important for years • 1952 

44. 4. Putting It All Together: Political Consultants • 1948: Truman hires PR firm to manage his flagging campaign. Combination of ads, whistle-stop campaign, publicity stunts (TV coverage), and consistent message (“do-nothing Congress”) lead to victory • Other campaigns emulate Truman’s success, adding more sophisticated techniques over time

45. II. Modern Campaign Strategy A. Strategy = Overall plan for victory. Determines: • Who: the voters you need to win • Why: the reasons they will vote for you • What: the unifying message to address them • How: acquiring resources to campaign

46. B. District Analysis: What are the odds? • Voting patterns: Which party dominates and why? • Neither: District is competitive • Loyalty: One party is favored. Capturing voters will require de-emphasizing party and emphasizing ideology • Ideology: One ideology is favored. Candidate ideology must adapt in response.

47. 2. Demographics: Which groups will be critical? • Noncompetitive groups – Mobilize or Suppress • Nonvoting groups – Ignore (especially relevant in primary elections) • Competitive voting groups – Persuade • Hillygus & Shields – who is competitive and how to persuade them is most of the book! • Figure 4.1: even highly cross-pressured partisans usually remain loyal • Figures 4.2 and 4.3: characteristics of voter (attentiveness, awareness) more important than campaign visits in 2004, but opposite true in 2000  how do we know when “persuasion” is more important than simply getting people to pay attention?

48. C. Issue Analysis: Comparing Assets and Liabilities • Mobilization issues: Increase or decrease base turnout. (May also affect vote choice of swing voters  Hillygus & Shields argue that 2004 “mobilization” issues were really “wedge” issues) • Wedge issues: Create a gap between opposition candidate and swing voters or “persuadable partisans” (pro-opposition leaners) • Policy issues: Problem/blame and solution/promise format

49. 4. Issues from 2004 (Hillygus & Shields survey data) • Three types of issues • Mobilization Issues: Economy, Iraq War, War on Terror, Tax Cuts, Trade  mostly economy/security issues • Wedge Issues: Faith-Based Initiatives, School Prayer, Abortion, Prescription Drug Imports, Gay Marriage  mostly “social values” issues • Policy Issues: Few “neutral” policy dilemmas • Is this why politicians don’t focus on “key issues” or “real solutions” instead of “symbolic issues?”

50. D. The Message • The need for themes of support and opposition • Self-definition: One word or phrase to summarize reason for campaign. Examples: Clinton 1992 = change, Bush 1992 = “family values,” Bush 2004 = 9/11, Obama 2008 = change, McCain 2008 = patriotism  change • Opposition: one word or phrase to summarize opponent; reinforce with issue ads and character ads. Examples: Bush I = “out of touch,” Dole = desperate, Bush II = dumb, Gore = liar, Kerry = flip-flop, Obama = elitist, McCain = “four more years”