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Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce

Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce . The Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Area Economies In 2013 and Beyond. Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University. November 13, 2013.

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Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce

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  1. Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce The Outlook for the U.S. and Washington Area Economies In 2013 and Beyond Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University November 13, 2013
  2. The U.S. Economy: Recent Performance and Outlook
  3. The National Economic Climate Four Years Into the Recovery Head Winds The sequester Weaker growth in emerging markets is hurting manufacturing (exports) Business is cautious re: hiring and capital spending The Sequester and Shutdown $85b reduction in budget authority $44b in actual spending reductions in FY 2013 $66b in spending reductions in calendar year 2013 Spending cuts lag cuts in budget authority
  4. The National Economic Forecast Sequester and payroll tax increases in January may reduce overall GDP growth in 2013 by 1 percentage point. DoD spending down 7% in 2013; up 0.8% in 2014 Non-DoD spending down 5.9% in 2013; up 0.4% in 2014. Sequester replaced in FY 2014 Budget agreement plus tax increases (caps on deductions) and entitlement reductions beginning in January 2014. GDP in 2013 = 1.5%; in 2014 = 2.5% GDP in 2015 = 3.2%
  5. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – US Month-Over-Year (000s) Oct = + 2.3 M Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  6. U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorOct2012 – Oct 2013 Total = 2,329 Ranked by Size in 2013 (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  7. U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorSep 2013 – Oct 2013 Total = 204 Ranked by Size in 2013 (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  8. U.S. Unemployment Rate % Oct = 7.3 GI FCST 13 – 7.5 14 – 7.1 15 – 6.5 16 – 6.0 17 – 5.7 18 – 5.4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Global Insight October 8, 2013
  9. U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2015 % Forecast > > > > Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight October 8, 2013

  10. Federal Spending Trendsin the Washington Area

  11. 2010 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12.0 % Other Federal 10.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries 10.0% Total Federal 39.8% Procurement 19.1% Local Serving Activities 34.8% Other 1.5% Assn1.8% Hosp. 2.1% Health/Ed. 4.5% Int’l 3.5% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  12. Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, 1980-2012 $ Billions $80.0 B $75.6 B TOTAL = $1,023.5 Billion | < 80-90 = $96.5 B > | < 91-00 = $207.9 B >| < 01–10 = $563.5 B > | 2012 2011 Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report
  13. Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (000s) Tot 2012 = 702,300 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  14. Federal Employment in the Washington Metro Area, 1950-2012 000s Kennedy – Johnson Nixon - Ford Eisenhower Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2 Obama +17.5 + 17 0 -8.6 + 35 - 37 + 24 + 74 - 5 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  15. Federal GovernmentWashington MSA (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Tot 2012 = 377,400 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  16. Summary for Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, 2010-2013 Federal procurement outlays declined 8.4% between FY 2010 and FY 2012and are projected to decline 5.0% during FY 2013. Federal employment has declined by 13,600 or by 3.5% in 24 months between July 2011 and 2013. Federal payroll declined by 0.6% between FY 2010 and FY 2011, was flat during FY 2012 and is projected to decline by $2 billion in FY 2013; it will continue to decline slowly as the workforce shrinks (-16,100 federal jobs between 2013 and 2017) and as older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers.
  17. Federal Budget Trends and Outlook (dollars in billions) YearAnnual % ChangeBudget Deficit 2008 6.8- $454.8 2009 5.7-1,415.7 2010 4.3-1,294.2 2011 - 2.6-1,296.8 2012 - 1.4-1,089.2 2013 - 4.9- 701.0 2014 0.3-730.7 2015 - 0.6- 644.4 2016 - 1.2 -596.7 2017 - 0.6 - 638.5 2018 - 0.4 - $670.6 Source: IHS Global Insight “US Executive Summary” October 8, 2013
  18. Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area: 2010-2017 (in billions of current dollars) YearGRP%Change* Fed $s% GRPProcurement 2010 $425.0 3.0 $169.0 39.8 $82.5 2011 433.7 2.6 168.2 38.8 80.0 2012 447.9 2.4 165.6 37.0 75.6 2013 466.9 2.1 162.7 34.8 71.8 2014 489.8 3.0 161.1 32.9 70.0 2015 517.2 3.6 162.7 31.4 69.3 2016 544.1 3.3 164.3 30.2 69.0 2017 $ 571.8 3.2 $166.8 29.2 $68.6 *real (inflation adjusted) percent change Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  19. The Washington Economy: Recent Performance and Outlook
  20. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA, 2002-2013 Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  21. WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private SectorThe Great Recession and Recovery To Aug 2013 (000s) Total -131 Total 165 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  22. Washington Metropolitan Area Job Change by Wage Category between 2008 to 2013 Sources: EMSI Total Employment, 2013.3 & GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  23. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: Aug 2012 – Aug 2013 (000s) Washington +33,400 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  24. Job Change by SectorAug 2012 – Aug 2013Washington MSA Total = 33,400 (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  25. Job Change by SectorJul 2013 – Aug2013Washington MSA Total = -26,500 (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  26. Annual Job ChangeDistrict of Columbia, 2002-2013 (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  27. Job Change by SectorJul 2013 – Aug 2013 District of Columbia Total -13,800 (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  28. Annual Job ChangeSuburban Maryland, 2002-2013 Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  29. Job Change by SectorJul 2013 – Aug2013Suburban Maryland Total -1,800 (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  30. Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia, 2002-2013 Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  31. Job Change by SectorJul 2013 – Aug 2013Northern Virginia Total -5,800 (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  32. Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 2006-2013 8.5 – DC 7.3 – U.S. 5.9 – SMD 5.4 – MSA 4.4 - NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)
  33. Job Growth in the Washington Metropolitan Area: 2012 - 2017
  34. Washington Metropolitan Area Gross Regional Product, 2012-2022 (in billions of 2005$s) Region2012Share2022Share% Change Metro $386.3 100.0 $513.5 100.0 32.9 District 92.1 23.8 114.5 22.2 23.7 SubMD 110.6 28.6 145.9 28.4 32.0 NoVA 182.5 47.2 251.1 48.9 37.6 __________________________________________ Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis The Washington metropolitan area includes Jefferson County, WV and is included in the total GRP values.
  35. Washington Metropolitan Area andSuburban Maryland, Change in Jobs, Summary: 2012-20172012 – 2017 Sources: EMSI Total Employment - 2013.2, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  36. Suburban Maryland Change in All Jobs, 2012 – 2017 Occupation 2-Digit SOCNet NewReplacements Business & Financial 11,999 9,668 Healthcare (All) 11,980 8,974 Personal Care & Service 8,730 7,479 Sales & Related 7,361 25,665 Building & Grounds Maint. 7,119 5,321 Food Prep & Serving 6,767 14,846 Educ., Training & Library 5,532 8,233 Management Occupations 4,988 11,360 Arts, Design, Entertainment 3,476 5,976 Construction & Extraction 3,079 8,117 All Others 12,552 57,868 Totals, All 83,583 163,507 Sources: EMSI Total Employment - 2013.2, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  37. Suburban Maryland Major Sources of Net New Jobs, 2012 – 2017 * % Total of All Net New Jobs Sources: EMSI Total Employment - 2013.2, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  38. Suburban Maryland Major Sources of Net New Jobs, 2012 – 2017 * % Total of All Net New Jobs Sources: EMSI Total Employment - 2013.2, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  39. 2017 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 16.2 % Other Federal 9.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries 7.5 % Total Federal 29.2% Procurement 12.0% Local Serving Activities 37.8% Int’l 3.9% Hosp. 2.6% Assn1.9 % Health/Ed. 7.0 % Other 1.5% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  40. Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu
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