Potential Wood Supply in Swiss Forests

1. Potential Wood Supply in Swiss Forests LEF Biennial workshop in Forest Economics Nancy, 30.5-1.6.2012

2. Agenda • Introduction • Wood use scenarios • Growth model MASSIMO • Definition of the scenarios • Calculation of the sustainable potential • Description of the Approach, “Onion Model” • Results • Conclusions • Work in progress • Discussion

3. Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI) • Field surveys • NFI 1 1983-1985 • NFI 2 1993-1995 • NFI 3 2004-2006 • NFI 4 from 2007 permanent survey • 6’500 sample plots • Forest surface 1'300'000 ha • Function wood production 38% • Growing stock 346 m3/ha • 69% coniferous • Biomass increment 9.7 Mio. m3/yr • Exploitation and mortality 9.1 Mio. m3/yr

4. Priorities of Swiss Forest Policy 2020 • The potential of Swiss wood supply sustainably exploited • Climate change adaptation and mitigation • Protective functions of the forest are ensured • Protection and promotion of biodiversity • Conservation of the forest surface area 1. Exploitation 3. Protectivefunction 2. Climate Change 5. Conservationofforestsurfacearea 4. Biodiversity

5. Targets of the Study • Actualize data on Increment and Potential Wood Supply for the next 30 years based on the national forest inventory • Build scientific background for policy decisions on the mobilizing of wood resources

6. Project Overview National ForestInventory Growth Model „MASSIMO“ Working group scenarios Sustainability check

7. Project Overview • Basic data for growing stock and increment from the 3rd National Forest Inventory (NFI3) • Definition of a basic scenario • Definition of 3 different wood-use scenarios • Modeling with the WSL’s empirical single tree growing model "MASSIMO" • Analyze the results with the “Onion Model” • Potential wood supply differentiated per region WSL: Eidg. Forschungsanstalt für Wald, Schnee und Landschaft

8. Growth Model "MASSIMO" Scenarios

9. Model Outputs Model outputs: • growing stock • increment • drain (cut and mortality) The data are biomass in [m3] for five tree compartments, five forest functions, and 14 economic regions covering the whole of Switzerland

10. Definition of the Scenarios A: Baseline scenarioconstant growing stock B: Long-term maximised increment With reduced growing stock C: Kyoto-optimized (high C-stock) With high growing stock D: High demand for wood (market-based) Increased harvesting during 20 years, after reduction and finally level of scenario A With reduced growing stock

11. Balancingactfor a sustainablewoodsupply Ecological factors Economic factors Social factors

12. "Onion Model“ : Analysis of scenarios to ensure sustainable wood supply Total biomass potential of each scenario 100% • Available ecological potential of wood: • Stumps not used • 5-15% bark and branches not used • 50% twigs not used - 12% - 8% • Potential after socio-economic negotiation process: • - Promotion of biodiversity • Protective functions / social function • Standards for close-to-nature silviculture - 10% = 70% Proportion that can be used economically and sustainably: Remaining 69% for use of total annually biomass potential

13. Frameconditions for analysis of the scenarios • Only biomass from forest land • Wood above ground from the base to the top of the stem, including branches and bark without foliage • Legal requirements and standards for close-to-nature silviculture, all forest functions are guaranteed • No stump extraction, no fertilisers

14. Frameconditions for analysis of the scenarios • Increase of forest area 3% till 2036 • Increase of Protected Areas to 10% in 2030 (presently ≈4%) • Forest biodiversity promotion (managed to achieve specific conservation objectives) • Social functions of forests (e.g. recreation) • Protective function of forests (against natural hazards) • Economic limits for extraction of wood

15. Sustainable potential wood supply Scenario D with high market demand for next 20 years D A B C

16. Resulting growing stock High growing stock C A D B Low growing stock D A B C

17. Mortality due to high density(cumulated for 100 years)

18. Sustainable Potential Wood Supply

19. Conclusions • The potential wood supply (± 8 Mil. m3 annually) exceeds the present supply (± 7 Mil. m3). • All forest functions are guaranteed for all scenarios. Detailed impacts have to be further studied. • The potential varies for the different regions and for different ownership categories. • The wood demand and supply is not an absolute value, but depends on timber price fluctuations.

20. Conclusions • Scenario B: the expected increase of increment was not confirmed within a period of 100 years. • Scenario C delivers the smallest potential wood supply calculated for 100 years. The others are ± equal if calculated. • Scenario D: The considerable harvesting during the first 30 years resulted in reduced supply afterwards • The baseline scenario A has the advantage of a continuous stable wood supply.

21. Work in progress • The results of this project are the basis for consolidating the wood mobilization policy of the Federal Office for the Environment • Regional differentiation and verification of the scenarios • Analysis of calculated potential supply and current demand for wood • Calculation of the forest management reference level for the second accounting period of the Kyoto Protocol • Including the impacts of climate change in the growth model MASSIMO

22. Potential wood supply by assortment(Basis scenario) Energy wood Industrial Roundwood Roundwood

23. Compare supply and demand for energy wood (Basis scenario)

24. Compare supply and demand for energy wood (Basis scenario)

25. Thank you for your interest! For further information:www.environment-switzerland.ch