Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation and Proposed Measures in Ethiopia

1. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation and Proposed Measures in Ethiopia YitebituMoges, PhD Forestry Research Center Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

2. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation International requirements • Addressing drivers of deforestation and forest degradation has been part of REDD+ discussions and UNFCCC negotiations. • Decision 2 of COP 13 in Bali • Decision 1 of COP 16 • Support REDD+ participating countries Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

3. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest DegradationInternational requirements • Addressing all direct and underlying drivers is key prerequisite to effectively reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and thus enhancing forest carbon stocks in every REDD+ country. Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

4. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest DegradationEthiopia REDD+ Status • Forests account for one-third of total emissions today (55 Mt CO2e annually) • But forest sector offer huge abatement potential through less deforestation and less forest degradation (130 Mt CO2e in 2030) • Government has shown commitment for protecting forests and woodlands (REDD+ as an important and immediate initiative) • Readiness Preparation Proposal (R-PP) that lays out the plan to prepare for REDD+ implementation prepared and accepted. Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

5. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest DegradationEthiopia REDD+ Status • Now ready for its REDD+ preparation phase: • The setup of an organizational structure and capacity building, • The definition of a REDD+ strategy, and • The preparation for implementation of concrete mitigation actions within REDD+. Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

6. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation Process for identification of drivers • Participatory: • R-PIN (2008), various means for the R-PP development (workshops, questionnaire, literature, interviews, e.g., WBISPP project, EDRI (2010) to provide a preliminary input to the CRGE initiative. Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

7. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation Proximate and underlying drivers • Proximate/direct causes are human activities or immediate actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of carbon. • Underlying/indirect causes are complex interactions of social, economic, political, cultural and technological processes-strengthen direct causes Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

8. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation Proximate/direct drivers • Largest driver of deforestation in Ethiopia is conversion of forests and woodland into agricultural land • 80% of new agricultural land b/n 2000 and 2008 was converted from forests, woodlands or shrub lands (EDRI, 2010). • Caused emission of an estimated 40 Mt of CO2 from deforestation in 2010. • Its impact will increase up to 65 Mt of CO2 per year in 2030. • As development of agriculture continues to accelerate: strong governmental support and demographic growth. Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

9. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation Proximate/ direct drivers Dominant driver of deforestation Commercial Agriculture Subsistence agriculture Commercial actors play a larger and increasing role in the expansion of agriculture into forests in Ethiopia Source: G. Kissinger, M. Herold and V. De Sy Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

10. Forecasted evolution of land requirements for agriculture and impact on forestry in a traditional growth path Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

11. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation Proximate/direct drivers • The main driver of forest degradation is unsustainable fuel wood consumption • Caused emission of an estimated 25 Mt of CO2in 2010. • Its impact will increase up to 40 Mt of CO2 in 2030. • Driven by sustained demographic growth, while fuel wood remains the main source of energy for the population. Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

12. Forecasted evolution of woody biomass degradation from fuel wood consumption, in a traditional growth path Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

13. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation Proximate/ direct drivers • Other direct drivers of deforestation and degradation play a limited role: • Forest fires (during droughty years), • Grazing, • Logging, • Infrastructure (roads, power lines, dams) Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

14. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation Underlying/indirect causes The indirect drivers of D and FD include: (1) Weak forest sector governance and institutions • Unstable institution with often limited financial and human capacity • Unworkable regulatory approach to forestry (lack of resources or inherent deficiency of the forest regulatory instrument). Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

15. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation Underlying causes (2) Conflicting policies beyond the forest sector (agri-business, foreign direct investment) • Strong government support to agriculture (incl. foreign direct investment) • Disincentive to natural forest management (focus on conservation, not sustainable forest management). Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

16. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation Underlying/indirect causes (3) Insufficient/unclear user rights for forests (tenure security) • Forest-dependent people are uncertain about their use rights over the forests  open access mentality. (4) Lack of benefit-sharing mechanism despite legal provisions (e.g., Environmental Policy of Ethiopia). Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

17. Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation Underlying/indirect causes (5) Lack of empowerment of local communities (6) Demographic pressure and poverty Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

18. Proposed measures to reduce D and FD (plus) • CRGE aims to embark on a low carbon economy. • Includes REDD+: protecting and maintenance of forests in an effort to reduce global carbon emissions. • Based on the main two D&FD drivers, candidate REDD+ strategic options (emission reduction levers) have been identified with abatement potential of 145 Mt CO2e. Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

19. Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

20. Proposed measures to reduce D and FD (plus) • Elaboration on the main measures: • Reducing forest land conversion to agriculture (land requirement from 19 Mhab.a.u. to 7 Mha green economy in 2030) • Limiting the impact of fuel wood consumption (by adopting energy efficient cooking technologies and alternative energy sources) • Developing sustainable forest management practices (2 Mha forest and 2 Mha woodland), and • Afforest ion (2 MHa), Reforestation (1 Mha) and agroforestry Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

21. Proposed measures to reduce D and FD (plus) • Main changes in the regulatory environment to enable the proposed mitigation: • Focus on local people’s rights, • Develop a dedicated forestry institution, and • Better coordinate land-use planning. Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

22. Final remarks • Ethiopia as shown commitment to follow green economic growth path. • Capacity building and financial support critical for the implementation of this initiative. • This workshop is very relevant and timely. Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop

23. Thank you for listening! Yitebitu M, MRV Road Map Workshop