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Successor States to Yugoslavia

Successor States to Yugoslavia. Yugoslavia in the 1980s Economic Disintegration and Slowdown in the 1980s Political Disagreements Clashing National Integration programs. Successor States to Yugoslavia. The start of the disintegration

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Successor States to Yugoslavia

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  1. Successor States to Yugoslavia • Yugoslavia in the 1980s • Economic Disintegration and Slowdown in the 1980s • Political Disagreements • Clashing National Integration programs

  2. Successor States to Yugoslavia • The start of the disintegration • January 1990 League of Yugoslav Communists splits along ethnic lines • Violent riots in Kosovo, JNA intervenes • Multi-party elections in Slovenia and Croatia – Franjo Tudjman’s Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ); in Slovenia –center-right coalition (DEMOS –Democratic opposition of Slovenia) • Referendum in Yugoslavia favored keeping a single-party state and curbing ethnic autonomy of Kosovo and Vojvodina

  3. Successor States to Yugoslavia • War starts in Croatia • August 1990 Serbs in Krajina begin agitation for autonomy; preparation for a referendum; local Serb militia made of trained army set up road blocks to isolate region (Knin Republic of Serbs) • Milosevic declares that if Yugoslavia disintegrates there have to be border changes that would unite all Serbs • Serbia cracks down on Albanian agitation • December 1990 the new Constituion • Croatia and Slovenia alarmed; organized local militia and armed police; December 1990 Croatian assembly declares full sovereignty and right to secede; referendum in Slovenia in favor of secession; February 1991 assembly adopts a resolution to dissociate itself from Yugoslavia • March 1991 Serbs in Krajina declare autonomous republic (Milosevic recognizes them) first local clashes

  4. Successor States to Yugoslavia • May 1991 a Croatian was supposed to become Yugoslavian president – Serbs refuse to accept this • June Croatia and Slovenia declare independence • 27-30 June – short war in Slovenia; JNA seized customs posts but later blockaded with no gasoline; JNA withdrew and Slovenia was allowed to secede • July 1991 war escalates in Croatia (Eastern Slavonia and Knin); August 1991 regular Serbian army begins campaigns for Vukovar and Dubrovnik • January 1992 EEC (later EU) recognized Croatia and Slovenia

  5. Successor States to Yugoslavia • Croatia – tyrannical majority • Tudjman’s dominance • Since his first election in 1990 (then in 1992 and 1995), president Franjo Tudjman and HDZ has dominated Croatian politics until his death in December 1999. • War politics (the diaspora representatives – remittances; media control; intimidation and harassment of opposition - dissolved Zagreb opposition led assembly in 1996) • In principle parliamentary republic but changed from a semi-presidential system only in 2000 Parliament (Sabor) unicameral – up to 160 every 4 years, 5% threshold PR, 8 from minorities and 4 from abroad – diaspora; president every 5 years; 2001- Chamber of Counties abolished (President Stipe Mesic CPP; Prime Minister Ivo Sanader HDZ)

  6. Successor States to Yugoslavia • War economy: collapsed after 1991; tourism and export to Yugoslavia suffered from war; infrastructure damage; but also war finances (60% of govt. expenditure for military led to deficits, debt; privatization slow and delayed until 1995 and most of it insider, enriching Tudjman’s protégés – a legacy of corruption; recession in 1998 and improved after 2000 and new government • Criminal economy - blockade busting; links between security services, military, economy and drug-trafficking (LA cocaine) • War criminals (Ante Gotovina) • Refugees • Official candidate to EU since 2004

  7. Successor States to Yugoslavia • Bosnia and Herzegovina (half-united, half-partitioned) • March 1992 majority of Bosnians vote for independence in a plebiscite but votes split along ethnic lines • Serbian local militia isolated major cities from surrounding Serbian-dominated rural areas; formation of Serb Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina announced, to be headed by Radovan Karadzic • JNA officially withdraws but Serbian forces begin a methodical effort to occupy as much territory in E Bosnia as possible; Muslim refugees to Zepa, Srebrenica, Tuzla, Sarajevo • Ethnic cleansing in a general scale (extensive use of rape and concentration camps) • By the end of 1992 2/3 of Bosnian territory in Serbian hands • Croat Union of Herzeg-Bosna, led by Mate Boban – claim about 30% of territory

  8. Successor States to Yugoslavia • Peace talks in Geneva (Vance-Owen plan) • Pressure on Bosnian Serbs to accept a plan giving them 50% of territory (they controlled 70% at the time) by Milosevic because of economic sanctions and crisis (hyperinflation - 2mil % in Yugoslavia) • UN declared 6 cities as ‘safe’ zones not to be attacked by Serbs (food dispatched too) – Sarajevo, Tuzla, Bihac, Zepa, Srebrenica, Gorazde; Bosnian muslims lobby against arms embargo because they are at a disadvantage

  9. Successor States to Yugoslavia • March 1994 Bosnian Muslim and Croatian governments agree on a guideline for federated Bosnia – this way can present united front to Serbs (also pressure by US) • February 1994 – the explosion in Sarajevo’s market; Serbs blamed; warned to stop artillery shelling of ‘safe’ cities or face air strikes • Disagreement in UN forces on the ground – taken as hostages (UN discredited)

  10. Successor States to Yugoslavia • Srebrenica and Zepa (8000 Bosnian Muslims killed) under command of Radko Mladic • Karadzic and Mladic indicted as war criminals by the UN tribunal • Croatia given green light to take back control of Krajina (180000 Serb refugees) • Air strikes by NATO; Muslims and Croat advance stopped by West with just over 50% of territory • Dayton agreements

  11. Successor States to Yugoslavia • International protectorate – High representative for BiH (Carl Bild 95-97; Carlos Westerndorp 97-99; Wofgang Petritsch 99-02; Paddy Ashdown 02-06; Christian Schwarz-Schilling -) to oversee the implementation of the peace accords • Multi-layered government (two entities RS and FBH); Rotating 3-member presidency –every 4 years – foreign policy and budget; PM appointed by president; House of Peoples and House of Representatives – election law finally passed in 2001; very limited powers to federal council; • The Federation of BiH now has its own capital, government, flag and coat of arms, president, parliament, customs and police departments, postal system (in fact, two of them), and airline (Air Bosna). • Same with RS, only unicameral parliament – National Assembly of Republica Srpska and a president

  12. Successor States to Yugoslavia • Federal government has very few powers; federal assembly too – budget, foreign relations and economy • Elections still follow ethnic lines (1996, 2000, 2002) Party of Democratic Actioan (PDA) – Bosniak, SDS- Serbian Democratic Party and Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) (around 30% now non-nationalist) –current president –chairman Nebojsa Radmanovic (AISD) and Prime minister Nikola Spiric (AISD) • Since 2001 pressure to unify many functions and strengthen federal government; in 2003 entities’ customs administration were replaced by unified state Indirect Taxation Authority; two entities’ separate armies finally brought under unified state control in 2006 • High representative more pressure since 1997(Bonn Powers) but that defeats the purpose of democratic government; to be closed in June 2007 • Economy – infrastructure destroyed in war; 250 000 killed; first reconstructing infrastructure; since 1997 effort to create self-sustaining Bosnian economy – central bank, foreign trade, debt, customs, common currency; very slow privatization only after 1999 but very little interest • Criminal economy (Ismet Bajramovic ‘Celo’and the assassination of the deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of the federation – Jozo Leutar) • War criminals (two presidents of RP indicted) • Refugees – officially 1 m have returned but in fact even less • Stabilization and Association Agreement in 2005 (join 2010-15) • Common national identity?

  13. Successor States to Yugoslavia • Macedonia • Problems with neighbors (Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia) • Strong presidency during Kiro Gligorov (1991-1999), system often characterized as semi-presidential; current president Branko Crvenkovski (SDSM) and PM Nikola Gruevski) SDSM successor to the socialist party –Kiro Gligorov from there too – party main partner until 1998, lost in 1998 but won again in 2002 • Political parties – SDSM, IMRO, DUI, and DPA • Ethnic tensions – 25% Albanians, 64% Slav Macedonians, 4% Turks and 3% Roma (2001 violence in Albanian areas; KLA infiltrated local organizations – NLA; NASTO force dispatched • Kosovo destabilization factor • Criminalization of economy; second economy; corruption; privatization very slow through management buy-outs; • Officially recognized as candidate for EU in 2005

  14. Successor States to Yugoslavia • Yugoslavia – trapped in time • The Milosevic Years • Modest bureaucrat until 1980; made leader of Serb Communists in 1986 (sponsored by the Serbian president Stambolic); In May 1989 – President of the Republican Serb Presidency; in 1992 1nd 1993 elected directly to the sole executive President; after expiry of his term in 1997 he consolidated his power base through his election as federal president; in 2000 amendment to the constitution for direct election to federal presidency, so he could win again; arrested in 2001 and surrendered to ICTY – died on March 11, 2006; Serbian Orthodox Chruch had officially expressed support for him until elections in 1996 • Post-Milosevic (Zoran Djindjic); Opposition against Milosevic was present and growing throughout the 1990s; in 1996 in the local elections opposition parties gained votes, most importantly Zoran Djindjic’s Zajedno coalition (founded Democratic Party in 1993-DS); victory annulled by the courts, led to demonstrations in Belgrade; eventually Djindjic appointed mayor but soon sacked; coalition collapsed very quickly (Vuk Draskovic and Serbian Renewal Movement 1990)

  15. Successor States to Yugoslavia • Kosovo crisis in 1998; KLA and Serb offensive; embargo, Rambuiilet agreements but finally NATO attack in March 1999; UNMIK (interim administration in Kosovo) established in 1999-since then protectorate; KFOR – 50,000 • Support for federal presidency increased during the air bombardment of Yugoslavia in 1999; in 2000 after federal and presidential elections opposition finally united – Djindjic instrumental again (Democratic Opposition for Serbia DOS) in presidential elections Vojslav Kostunica wins, in legislative DOS – September ;Chief of Staff Gen. Nebojsa Pavkovic stated he would not interfere in the political process, crucially security forces agreed not to intervene in demonstrations which intensified in October until Milosevic accepted defeat; Zoran Djindjic became Prime Minister

  16. Successor States to Yugoslavia • Since June 2006 lost the last member of the federation; since February 2006 the talks on the final status of Kosovo have started and very likely Serbia will lose that territory too • President of Serbia – Boris Tadic, PM – Vojslav Kostunica after Djindjic assassinated; • Radical nationalist parties have more influence; liberal forces split • Democratic Party of Boris Tadic; Democratic Party of Serbia – Kostunica, conservative; G17 of Miroljub Labus; the rest and more popular are the nationalist parties SPS – socialist party of Milosevic, Serbian Radical Party – SRS of Vojslav Sesel is strongest, Serbian Renewal Movement of Vuk Draskovic

  17. Successor States to Yugoslavia • Criminal elements and Security services (Zemun Clan Red Berrets – Milorad Lukovic Legija French Foreign Legion– Milosevic’s son; Zeljko Raznatovic Arkan – The Tigers in Slavonia 1991; Ljuba Zemunac, Djordje Giska, almost all of them assassinated b/n 1995-2000; Red barrets financed by state successful eneterprises; KOS – Counter-intelligence services from Yugoslavia set up the drug routes back in 1990s, Mihalj Kertes and Serbian Customs (up to 4 billion b/n 1994-2000; Surcin clan – Lubisa Buha – Difens Roud; Action Saber – to clean up country after Djindjic assassination – 4000 • ICTY and Serbia

  18. Successor States to Yugoslavia • Montenegro in the 1990s – the struggle of two men • Milo Djukanovic and Momir Bulatovic • Estrangement of Montenegro fro the FRY since 1993, but even more so since 1997 • The process of separation since 1999 • Dominance of Milo Djukanovic • Criminalization of economy

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