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2018-2019 Scenario Scoping Process

2018-2019 Scenario Scoping Process. Michael Bailey, P.E System Adequacy Planning, WECC. Scenario Development Where are we in the process? Scoping Process Models, Tools, Methods, Metrics. Talking Points. Scenario Development Update. The Scenario Learning Loop. The Scenario Learning Loop.

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2018-2019 Scenario Scoping Process

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  1. 2018-2019 Scenario Scoping Process Michael Bailey, P.E System Adequacy Planning, WECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  2. Scenario Development • Where are we in the process? • Scoping Process • Models, Tools, Methods, Metrics Talking Points Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  3. Scenario Development Update Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  4. The Scenario Learning Loop Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  5. The Scenario Learning Loop Narrative Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  6. The Scenario Learning Loop Modeling Narrative Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  7. Scenario Modeling Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  8. Scenario Modeling Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  9. Scenario Modeling Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  10. Scenario Modeling April 2019 January 2019 November 2018 End of Month September 2018 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  11. Scoping Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  12. Scoping Process Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  13. Reliability Assessment Structure Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  14. 2019-2019 Scenario Matrix Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  15. How might restricted customer choice of electrical supply options manifest and impact the characteristics of the BPS? How might a “laissez faire” policy environment manifest and impact the characteristics of the BPS? How might load patterns and characteristics change and what risks may arise? Possible Reliability Questions Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  16. How might the generation resource portfolio change and what risks may arise? How might the utilization of transmission change and what risks may arise? What operational challenges may arise? What other potential risks to reliability of the BPS may arise? Possible Reliability Questions Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  17. How might planning and operation of the BPS adapt to these changes? What market mechanisms may arise? What investment decisions might need to be considered? What mix of generation resources may be needed for reliability rather than energy production. Possible Reliability Questions Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  18. Study Approach Development Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  19. Study Approach Development Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  20. Study Approach Requirements SDS Requirements Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  21. Models, Tools, Methods, Metrics Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  22. National Energy Modeling System Model Basis for Annual Energy Outlooks Adapt “Modules” framework approach to WECC needs WECC “Modules” based on ADS and WECC processes NEMS “Modules” Framework Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  23. Not Adopting NEMS Adapt framework and approach to our needs WECC Modeling Modules unique to WECC Framework used to develop study roadmaps NEMS Electricity Module Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  24. Load Generation Transmission Economics Fuels Geospatial (GIS) Goals and Constraints Exogenous WECC Modeling Modules • Anchor Data Set (ADS) foundational • Basic Modeling Categories • Sub-modules refinements • Framework used to develop study roadmaps • Study Horizons captured • Facilitates • Organization • Transparency • Traceability • Pedigree Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  25. Load Forecasting Production Cost Simulation Power Flow Capital Expansion Optimization Stochastics Predictive Analytics Operational Flexibility Tools Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  26. Sound & industry accepted Peer and committee review Transparent and documented with the pedigree Leverage outside expertise when appropriate (e.g., National Labs, Consultants) ADS foundational along with committee processes Leverage StS, DS, MS and other committee’s for metric adjustments Study approaches comply with objectives to the satisfaction of study requestor (e.g., SDS for scenarios) Methods Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  27. Foundational metrics, non-foundational metrics, study approach metrics, metric adjustments ADS metrics are foundational Non-foundational metrics are peer reviewed in collaboration with StS, MS, DS, . . . Leverage outside consultancy as needed (e.g., capital cost models) Study approach metrics comply with objectives to the satisfaction of study requestor (e.g., SDS for scenarios) Metrics Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  28. Long Term Load Forecasts Update Capital Costs New Generation Technology Types Geospatial Renewable Energy Potentials Review RPS and Policy Trends Transmission Valuations Reliability Goals and Constraints Assumptions Near-term Metrics Work Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  29. Questions Michael Bailey mbailey@wecc.biz Western Electricity Coordinating Council

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