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SCENARIO PROCESS for

Designed by Michael Braito Marianne Penker. SCENARIO PROCESS for. Put here your name, details of the workshop, etc. KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION. Outline. participatory process. Sustainable development by Knowledge Integration Thinking of tomorrow – Why and how?

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SCENARIO PROCESS for

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  1. Designed by Michael Braito Marianne Penker SCENARIO PROCESSfor Put here your name, details of the workshop, etc. KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION

  2. Outline participatoryprocess • Sustainable development by Knowledge Integration • Thinking of tomorrow – Why and how? • Thinking of tomorrow – Scenario Planning Theoretical introduction • The Scenario Process (Step 1 – 5) Step 1: Defining the project boundaries Step 2: Identifying the driving forces Step 3: Analysing the driving forces Step 4: Scenario generation Step 5: Scenario transfer by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  3. Thinking of tomorrow for a sustainable development! The delegates at the RIO+20 acknowledged the importance of strengthening transdisciplinary cooperation in order to enhance sustainable development. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  4. Why is this so crucial for sustainable development? Each discipline is important! Concentrating on one subject is failing in seeing other aspects. Learning from each other … … to recognize the big picture. Sustainable development can only be reached if human beings work together. KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION • Decisions in the field of sustainable development have to be taken in the context of uncertain and incomplete knowledge. • A systematic integration of a range of research-informed judgments, expertise from different disciplines and experience-based knowledge is often the best way forward. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  5. Methods of Knowledge Integration • “In interdisciplinary research and transdisciplinary knowledge integration, the focus of the dialogue process is on a research question and the process aims to enable the formation of a combined judgment between the participants, with that judgment being informed by the best research evidence” (McDonald et al. 2009). • Several methods for dialogue/participatory processes exist (see McDonald et al. 2009), for instance: • Citizens’ jury, • Conference, • Delphi technique, • Open space technology, • Scenario Planning (THINKING OF TOMORROW). by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  6. Thinking of TomorrowWHY and HOW!?

  7. The complexity of today and tomorrow political regulatory social macro-economic regional rural techno-logical ecological etc. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker Our world, our socio-economic system is changing rapidly and unpredictable. A number of issues follow their own future path, but at the same time, they interact not only with each other but with any number of …

  8. The problem of limited points of views political regulatory social macro-economic regional These limited points of views may become a straitjacket, not allowing us to see the big picture. rural techno-logical ecological etc. To analyse complex systems we reduce the complexity. In doing this, we tend to stop gathering detail and select one path forward that seems the most likely one. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  9. Thinking of tomorrow – Why and How? “A major focus is on how the future might evolve from today’s point-in-time to the horizon year of the scenario – say 15-20 years hence. Scenario thinking analyses the relationships between: the critical uncertainties (as they resolve themselves); important predetermined trends (such as demographics), and the behaviour of actors who have a stake in the particular future (who tend to act to preserve and enhance their own interests)”(Wright and Cairns 2011, 9). by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  10. Knowledge Integration – dealing with unknowns/uncertainties • Knowledge Integration by Scenario planning supports to: • capture the uncertainties faced by the scenario topic, • highlight the issues that may have a significant impact on the scenario topic, and • to study the relationships between these critical issues. Scenario planning combines possibilities to form a manageable set of scenarios. It helps “to sketch a broad spectrum of possible developments options”(Penker and Wytrzens 2005). by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  11. AIMS of ‘scenario thinking’ • Not predicting the future, but understanding the present • Developing an information framework for decision making Knowledge Integration (explicit scientific knowledge and implicit local knowledge) Following the approach of ‘intuitive logics’(Jungermann and Thuring 1987)See the sense of complexity and ambiguity in terms of possibility and plausibility. Exploring the interrelationships between multiple factors in terms of cause/effect and chronologyRealise that the possibilities are not unlimited. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  12. AIM of System Intervention • Initiate a process of understanding (future is unpredictable and unknown). • Highlight and understand possibilities for action (despite partial uncertainty). • Enhance openness for new ways instead of moving always on the worn-out paths. • Exercise to deal with the unknown, the unforeseeable. • Identify different interests, assessments, expectations. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  13. Thinking of TomorrowHOW? Scenario Planning

  14. How to use scenarios Scenarios can fulfill several and different functions: • explorative and knowledge function, • communication function, • aim building function, and • decision making and strategy function. The PROCESS is as important as the OUTCOME! by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  15. The scenario funnel Scenario thinking gives you the opportunity to set intervention today, because it shows you what will have a major impact in the future. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  16. Scenario techniques Trend scenario based on driving forces Systemic - formalised Creative-narrative Intuitive Logics Normativ-narrative Scenarios Effect Analysis Consistency Analysis Cross-Impact-Analysis Extrapolation of business as usual Trend-Impact-Analyses by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  17. The Scenario Process

  18. The process of scenario planning by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  19. The Scenario ProcessSTEP 1Defining the project boundaries

  20. Project boundaries of the exemplary scenario project • Set the objectives. • Define boundaries and establish focus. • The objectives for the scenario planning should include the following: • Thematic framework, • Time horizon for the scenarios, • Geographical scope of the scenarios, • Stakeholder to be addressed by the project, • Unavoidable constraints on future plans, and • Definition and deadline for deliverables. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  21. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  22. The Scenario ProcessSTEP 2Identifying the driving forces

  23. What are ‘driving forces’? • Driving forces are attributes of a system which are most relevant at the present and cause changes in the system state over time (e.g. social, economic, environmental, political, and technological). • Main key factors facing the research topic • Changes in society, politics, technology etc. are often the symptoms of more fundamental transformations. • Driving forces are indicating change, but should not indicate direction or dimension. • Driving forces are NOT PROBLEMS by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  24. Methods to identify driving forces I • Identification of a MAXIMUM of 10-15 driving forces • Different methods exist: • Systemic picture (all together or as a “World Café”) • Brainstorming/Brainwriting by using cards • etc. • Leading question: • Which factors are influencing the present and might have a significant impact on the development of the scenario objective? by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  25. Methods to identify driving forces II Systemic picture (all together or as a “World Café”) by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  26. Methods to identify driving forces III Brainstorming/Brainwriting by using cards by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  27. Feedback • Integrate scientific knowledge with participants’ knowledge • Literature research • Empirical research • Field work • Interviews • Delphi Method • etc. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  28. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  29. The Scenario ProcessSTEP 3Analysing the driving forces

  30. Analysis of the driving forces and filtering by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  31. Identify the most relevant driving forces RANKING What is the magnitude of the impact of these driving forces on the development of the future of the system? by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  32. The ‘relevance/uncertainty’ matrix 4 dimension matrix to narrow the list of driving forces to the most relevant for differentiating scenarios. We may be highly certain that something will happen (e.g. climate change) but highly uncertain as to what impact it may have (increasing storm activity, drought, flood? by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  33. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  34. The Scenario ProcessSTEP 4Scenario generation

  35. Scenario Generation I Factor B Factor A 4 dimensions matrix 4 scenarios Select the two factors (A and B) that combine the greatest perceived relevance on the core issue with the greatest uncertainty as to what their impact will be. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  36. Scenario Generation II Scenario 1 Factor A Factor B Scenario 2 Factor A Factor B Factor B Factor A • Scenarios should be: • Plausible • Distinctive • Consistent • Relevant • Creative • Challenging • (Maack 2001, 73) Scenario 3 Factor A Factor B Scenario 4 Factor A Factor B by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  37. Story telling • Add narratives to provide ‘rich descriptions’ of four possible and plausible futures (e.g. “one day of Mister X in the year 20xx”). • Think carefully and deeply about sense making, logic, plausibility and possibility of what you are writing. Specifically, consider the logic of what you have written here and be prepared to revise your ideas. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  38. Story telling Scenario 1 Factor A Factor B Creative title (highlighting the central message Brief summation that explains the title and sums up the elements of the story Smooth narratives that are easy to read and understand • geographical maps • timelines • story hands • story seeds • storyboards • journeys (A to B; A to B to A) • cumulative block graphs • emotions graphs • story mountains • What is Mr. X on the 1st May 2030 doing? • How does the world look like? by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  39. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  40. The Scenario ProcessSTEP 5Scenario transfer

  41. Scenario Transfer I The final stage of the Scenario Process is the disseminationof the message and its implementation on the ground. Backcasting Focuses on finding options that satisfy long-term targets (Börjes et. al. 2005) What activities/measures have to be taken to reach the preferred scenario? by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  42. Scenario Transfer II Scenario 4 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 What is the best strategy for dealing with this situation? Which scenario do we prefer? Scenario 3 What are the major opportunities and threats in this scenario? What are the implications of this world? by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  43. Enjoy your scenario process

  44. References Bammer, G., 2006. Integration and Implementation Sciences: Building a New Specialisation. In Perez, P. and Batten, D. (eds.). Complex Science for a Complex World. Australia: ANU E Press, The Australian National University Australia. 95-107. Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.H., Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G., 2005. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques. Stockholm: US AB Royal Institute of Technology. Jungermann, H. and Thuring, M., 1987. The use of mental models for generating scenarios. In Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (eds.), Judgmental Forecasting. London: Wiley. Maack, J., 2001. Scenario Analysis: A Tool for Task Managers. McDonald, D., Bammer, G. and Deane, P., 2009. Research Integration using dialogue methods. Australia: ANU E Press, The Australian National University Australia. Penker, M. and Wytrzens, H.K., 2005. Scenario for the Austrian food chain in 2020 and its landscape impacts. Landscape and Urban Planning. 71. 175-189. Wright, G. and Cairns, G., 2011. Scenario Thinking: Practical approaches to the future. London, Palgrave. by Michael Braito, Marianne Penker

  45. Institute for Sustainable Economic Development Department of Economics and Social Sciences BOKU University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Feistmantelstr. 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria http://www.wiso.boku.ac.at/2797.html?&L=1 Marianne Penker Expertise • Rural development • Implementation Research • Property Rights • Rural Governance • Landscape Governance • Conservation and Environmental Policy Michael Braito Expertise • Environmental economics and environmental policy • Sustainable development • Rural development • Optimisation and valuation of managerial processes • Analysis and economic valuation of societal processes

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