The Rising American Electorate

1. The Rising American Electorate A DECADE OF GROWTH AND EMERGING POLITICAL INFLUENCE Presented by Celinda Lake President of Lake Research Partners Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066

2. Summary • The first decade of the millennium was marked by the growth of the Rising American Electorate (RAE), and that growth was mainly driven by unmarried women and Latinos. • However, despite their growth in the population, unmarried women and the RAE have yet to match their strength in the overall population with strength at the ballot box. • A plurality of the Rising American Electorate are not registered, and this is the first and most fundamental barrier to voting and becoming engaged in the political process. • With targeted efforts that provide information and strategic messaging that speaks to the highly personal issue concerns of these voters, we can bring them back and rebuild much of the 2008 surge.

3. Looking at the full RAE, unmarried women had the most growth in sheer numbers (8.3 million). Latinos had the largest growth rate relative to their size (62 percent increase). Numbers in the Adult Citizen Population 2000 and 2010 November CPS Supplement

4. Both the RAE and unmarried women lag behind when it comes to being registering to vote. The RAE is more than half of the vote eligible population but less than half of registered voters.

5. In addition, there was some drop-off in share of the electorate since 2008. We expect lower turnout in midterm elections, but this backward shift toward lower representation among voters shows deterioration among these groups.

6. Among young adults and Latinos, about half of those eligible to vote—adult citizens—are not registered. Registration is the first step to voting, so groups need to start there when trying to engage these groups in 2012. 20,648,401 9,120,311 22,955,130 10,302,628 4,753,732 12,115,424 4,335,943 11,434,743 10,908,146 20,343,134 6,646,31 10,830,026 Current Population Survey-November 2010

7. Overall, the plurality of the Rising American Electorate are not registered to vote, far more than the number among non-RAE adult citizens. 46,647,368 24,471,262 40,194,018 Current Population Survey-November 2010

8. When they do register and vote, the Rising American Electorate votes consistently and overwhelmingly for Democrats. +83 +28 +28 +25 +17 LRP Post-Election Survey for WVWV, October 31-November 2, 2010, 2,400 Voters

9. The marriage gap in 2010 was 35 points, compared to a gender gap of just 9 points. Unmarried women continued their pattern of voting Democratic, even in what was an undeniably Republican year overall. +25 -21 -11 +11 LRP Post-Election Survey for WVWV, October 31-November 2, 2010, 2,400 Voters

10. Highest Concentration of Unmarried Women New York Rhode Island South Carolina Maryland Illinois Massachusetts Mississippi Connecticut North Carolina New Mexico Highest Concentration of RAE New Mexico California Texas Maryland Mississippi New York Nevada Georgia Louisiana Florida Looking to 2012, there is great potential for a comeback, and efforts are especially merited where unmarried women and/or the RAE make up a sizeable portion of voters. The top ten list of each is shown below.

11. Recommendations • 2008 was a new high water mark for unmarried women and RAE turnout, so looking for those voters who have voted before is a first step to engaging these groups. • Focus efforts in states with high concentrations of unmarried women or RAE eligible voters. You will get more bang for your buck. • It’s not enough to ask these people to vote—we need to reengage them on the issues, specifically their issues. • Remember that in a close election, all groups can have an impact by changing the make- up of the electorate. Connecting with unmarried women and RAE voters and bringing them back into the polling place is as important as trying to persuade the voters you already think might show up.