Climate Change

1. Climate Change

2. Oversimplified but irrefutable: • Global temperatures are rising. • Many atmospheric pollutant levels are rising. • The pollutants that are rising help to trap heat.

3. NPR Article: Drought

4. Is Climate Changing? • Records since 1880 show: hottest 10 years have happened since the new millenium (2000) • Journals: Lakes/rivers freeze about 1 week later and thaw about 1 week earlier than 150 years ago • Night temps increase more than day temps (gg’s prevent escape of heat at night but don’t affect incoming radiation during day)

5. Is Climate Changing ?(cont) • Declining arctic wildlife • Climate extremes • Still have very cold days, but the number of very hot days is increasing • Coral reef bleaching • Global glacial retreat • Ex: Montana. Glacier National Park had 130+ glaciers. None left by 2030. • Thinning of arctic ice:

6. Evidence of Past Climatea.k.a.: “Proxy” Measurements • Journals “Dear Diary…” • Glacier lengths • Ice cores • Pollen deposits in lake sediment • Coral reefs

7. Natural Climate Change Events: Random Events Regular Events 11- year sunspot cycles 22- year solar magnetic cycles 18.6 year lunar cycle affects tides, atmosphere Earth’s tilt/Orbital fluctuations • Volcanic Eruptions • Asteroid Impacts • Cosmic Radiation • Tectonic Plate Fluctuations

8. 5 Primary Skeptic Arguments • “Cloud Effect” – Higher temperatures more evaporation  more clouds. Clouds reflect sunlight. It’ll cool us down. • “Glacial melt is normal” – Glaciers began retreating 150 years ago, before we began messing things up. • “It’s Natural!” – This is natural, and we are insignificant. The changes are natural fluctuations. Human activities are too insignificant on a global scale. • “Computer models are flawed” – Models indicate our CO2 levels should be higher based on our f.f. use. If we can’t even predict CO2 concentrations correctly, we can’t predict what is happening with climate change. • “An Ice-Age is Coming” – We’re going to need the heat. The past 8,000 years have been warm and stable. We’re overdue. We’ll be grateful for the extra CO2 warming.

9. Greenhouse Effect • We need some gg’s to keep the planet warm. Without them, Earth would be uninhabitably cold. • However: All things in moderation. We have too much.

10. Be Neighborly: Get to know your 5 GG’s Contribution toward climate change depends on 3 factors: • Abundance/quantity • Atmospheric Lifetime – The amount of time required to restore equilibrium after an increase in the atmospheric concentration. • The amount of time until a ggleaves the system. • Over time, molecules are lost or deposited in soil, water, vegetation, biological systems, etc. 3. “Global Warming Potential” GWP • Shows how much heat can be stored per molecule (ability to absorb radiation) • Measures each gas against the GWP of CO2 (which is given the standard of “1 GWP”)

12. 5 Primary Greenhouse Gases • CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) • Sources: Fossil fuel burning • CH4 (Methane) • Sources: landfills (greatest), coal mines, rice paddies, cow farts • Hydro-, Per-, Chloro- Fluorocarbons (H, P, C-FCs) and Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) • The only gg with NO Natural Contribution. • Sources: ski wax, fishing line, formerly coolants and aerosols • O3 (Ozone) • Sources: smog • N2O (Nitrous Oxide) • Sources: burning organics, f.f. burning, fertilizers

13. 5 Primary Greenhouse Gases • CO2 • Overall contribution: 50% • CH4 • Overall Contribution: 18% • H, P, CFC, SF6 • Overall Contribution: 15% • O3 • Overall Contribution: 12% • N2O • Overall Contribution: 6%

15. Ozone Extremely Brief Atmospheric Lifetime:hours-days GWP – Not Calculated due to brevity of atmospheric lifetime

17. History of CO2 • 1st record: 1957, Mauna Loa Hawaii monitoring station Discoveries: • 1. Natural seasonal CO2 fluctuation. Seasonal plants take up CO2 in summer (CO2 low), dormant in winter (CO2 high). • 2. Steady CO2 increase every year since then (confirmed world-wide) • 3. Natural CO2 change: 0.0002 ppm/yr • 4. Anthropogenic CO2 change: 2-3 ppm/yr

22. BLACK Carbon (soot) What’s the problem? Low albedo soot particles float in air (lowering albedo of air) and land on stuff (lowering albedo of exposed surface materials). • Sources: diesel engines, open cook stoves, wood burning, forest fires • Source locations: developing countries (esp. India, China) • Atmospheric Lifetime: ~ 1 month • Control technologies: retrofit engines to capture black carbon, use nat gas instead of diesel, replace open cook stoves with solar cookers or more efficient cook stoves • Potential benefits: Prompt (!) reduction of climate change, improved air quality, lung/health improvement

23. Manipulation of Data Analyze the following graph. Look for: • Evidence of wordplay/exaggeration of evidence • Biased interpretation of data • Manipulative use of graph tools

24. “Plants need CO2”

25. Why care? Effects of Climate Change • Biodiversity and ecosystem loss (ex: coral reefs) • Species extinction (ex: “Islands in the sky” loss of high altitude climates) • Loss of terrestrial glaciers = loss of drinking water (glacial melt provides water) • Incr. disease. (Mosquito population is major vector for disease) • Ocean acidification (CO2 + H2O = H2CO3….carbonic acid)

26. Why care? Effects of Climate Change • Precipitation/weather pattern changes  war/conflict over water, resources and viable land • Sea level rise due to: 1) melting terrestrial glaciers and 2) thermal expansion of oceans • Millions will migrate, esp. India & China • Developing nations will be the hardest hit and least financially able to adapt • Largest changes will be seen in the arctic: • Albedo change from glacier  tundra initiates a positive feedback loop • Thermohaline circulation disruption • CO2 and CH4 released from melting permafrost

27. Psychology of the Climate Change Issue • In a group of 3-4, develop a list of reasons why some people don’t believe in climate change. • http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=121105095 • http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5530483

28. Debate Activity: • Your group will be given one of the five primary skeptic arguments to refute. • Your role: Educated environmentalist. • My role: “Devil’s advocate”. I play the skeptic who doesn’t believe in climate change. • Use textbook, notes, and internet research to reject my argument. You can use notes/graphs/etc. during our debate. • I pick one member of your group to represent you. The score earned by that person is what is received by every member of the group. • http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124008307&sc=emaf

29. Thermohaline Circulation/Ocean Conveyor • Term for the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere. • It moderates earth’s climates. • Currents transport warm water from the equator  poles and cold water from the poles  equator. • The process is driven by 2 marine variables: 1. Temperature (cold poles, warm equator) 2. Salinity (saltier poles, “waterier” equator)

31. Thermohaline Circulation cont. Prior to climate change: • Tropics: Surface water is warmed by the sun and diluted by rainwater and runoff • Poles: Cold and dense surface water sinks and draws up warm water (from the equator) to replace it If the system stops  Its moderating effect will cease… Equator will be hotter Poles will be colder (potential to trigger ice age) Future potential conditions: • Tropics: Getting saltier due to increased temps which increase evaporation • Poles: Getting waterier due to glacial melt and precipitation increases at high latitudes • …the salinity gradient which drives circulation is diminishing

32. Mechanisms for g.g. Control:Cap and Trade Principle: A government sets a limit (cap) on the amount of a pollutant that can be emitted by an industry. Effect: Companies that emit more pollution must buy credits from those who pollute less • The buyer pays a charge to pollute (--> financial incentive to install emissions reduction equipment) • The seller is rewarded for having reduced emissions

33. Cap and Trade cont.

34. Cap and Trade (cont) Acid Rain Cap and Trade Program • Program details: • Addressed SO2 and NOx emissions • Began in 1990 with the Clean Air Act • Results: • Reduced emissions faster and cheaper than anticipated • By the year 2002: • SOx emissions were 9% lower than in 2000 • NOx emissions were 13% lower than in 2000

35. Kyoto Protocol • Set a Cap and Trade system for developed nations to reduce g.g. emissions • Nations could sell emissions between countries • Poorer, developing nations (ex: India) exempt. Reasoning: • Wealthy countries made the g.g. mess, they take the lead in cleaning it up • Would place undue financial burden on economy of a developing nation (“taxing a child”) • July, 2001, 178 nations agreed to regulate CO2, CH4 and N2O • Not us! • Reasoning: • India and China didn’t, so we won’t. 2. Bush:“we’re going to put the interests of our own country first and foremost” 3. Due to our lifestyle, would have required a 40% reduction in energy consumption

36. Kyoto Failure produced no binding agreementMeanwhile… Kyoto Goal: 5% lower g.g. emissions than 1990 levels Global emissions are 54% higher than in 1990 2011 Top 3 g.gemitters: • China (10b tons) • U.S. (5.9b tons) • India (2.5 b tons) • China emissions increased 10% • U.S. emissions declined 2% • India emissions increased 7%

37. Copehagen Summit FAIL • The countries approved a 5-page document that recognizes the need to limit global temperatures from rising no more than 2o Celsius over 10 years, but doesn't require countries to take measures to address climate change. • Ended in everyone pointing fingers at everyone else • Widely considered to be a failure.

38. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)Affects a sloshy bathtub of warm water between Indonesia and South America Most Years: • More water is in the west Pacific due to westerly winds Results in: • 1. Torrential rain (ex: monsoons) in Australia and SE Asia • 2. Dry wind and deserts from Chile to S. California El Nino Years: • Change in pressure, ocean temperature and wind direction to an easterly direction…produces unusually warm waters in equatorial Pacific • Happens every 3-5 years, lasts a few months to 1 year or more • Dramatically increased rainfall in southern U.S. and Peru • Drought in west Pacific, Australia

40. How does El Nino relate to climate change? • Studies of 130,000 year old coral indicate ENSO events are becoming: • More irregular • Stronger • Warm ocean temperatures are spreading • Warm water spawns hurricanes, typhoons, coral reef bleaching, marine life death • La Nina • Characterized by unusally cold waters in the equatorial Pacific

41. The Future • IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • The panel of international scientists who evaluate the risks of anthropogenic climate change • Projected temperature increases: • 1.1 - 4.4o C by 2100 (the last ice age was 5oC colder) • Scenarios   • B.A.U. – Business as Usual (red)

42. http://www.breathingearth.net • http://www.breathingearth.net

43. Scenarios: Why don’t we know? Each scenario attempts to project variables such as: • Population…declining, stable or growing? By how much? • Continued reliance on f.f.’s? (coal is cheap!) Incorporation of renewable energy? By how much? • Heterogenous (haves vs have-nots)world? More equitable, resource-homogenized world? How much? • Non-linear feedback loops (increasing at an increasing rate), positive feedback loops…

44. Greatest changes to be seen in the Arctic • Permafrost soil is made of swampy, boggy, high CO2 and CH4 soils • It’s no longer “perma”…it’s thawing. • Melting of terrestrial glaciers and ice reveal dark underlying tundra…much lower albedo -->creates positive feedback loop • Thawing of permafrost soils could release more CO2 than all of the fossil fuels ever burned, another positive feedback loop. • Aquatic glaciers also have a higher albedo than ocean…melting creates more positive feedback

45. How to Cool the Planet • Aerosols (ex: PM liquids/solids, sulfates, dust, sea salt, black carbon, volcanic ash) • High albedo aerosol particles (esp sulfates) “whiten” clouds • Low albedo aerosol particles (esp black carbon) “darken” atmosphere • Aerosols can turn ordinarily large, “dark” droplets in clouds into many smaller, whiter droplets which reflect light better • Sometimes produce more cloud precip, sometimes produce less. (Poorly understood at this time)

46. How to cool the planet (continued) • Volcanic eruptions • Increase g.g. emissions cost • Government regulation • Subsidies • Make renewable energy less expensive than coal energy • Efficiency/mileage standards • Cap and trade

47. Cool the Planet (cont.) • Efficiency incentives • Energy Guide, Energy Star • De-couple climate science from politics! • Buy green power • Building design (deciduous trees on S. side of structures) • Research and Development • Education VS

48. Cool Planet (cont.): Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) • Carbon Sequestration – the process of capturing atmospheric C in fixed sites. • Ex: geological sequestration, agricultural sequestration • Concerns re: leakage, effect of CO2 on geology • Technology is ~8 yrs away

50. Stabilization Wedge(use a portfolio of mitigation strategies)