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Predictive Mapping GMAC - Wigan 2011

Wigan Strategic Assessment. Predictive Mapping GMAC - Wigan 2011. Ian Bullen – Strategic Analytical Partnership Co-ordinator 9 th November 2011. “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics. Predictive Mapping.

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Predictive Mapping GMAC - Wigan 2011

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  1. Wigan Strategic Assessment Predictive Mapping GMAC - Wigan 2011 Ian Bullen – Strategic Analytical Partnership Co-ordinator 9th November 2011

  2. “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics

  3. Predictive Mapping • First advanced in 2004 (Johnson et al) • Increased risk within 400m for 6/7 weeks • Local view in 2005/6 = not useful – 400m from any Burglary in Leigh covers all of Leigh • Utilised in Trafford & linked to 25% reduction in Burglary Dwelling • Let’s have another look… • But… “the implementation of a strategy for which every burgled household and neighbours within 400m received crime reduction attention would require substantial resources…” (Johnson et al, 2006, Home Office)

  4. The Changing Face of Near Repeats… • Initial research based on 2003/4 data • Wigan BD in 2003/4 = 2,813 • Wigan BD in 2010/1 = 1,266 • 55% reduction • Repeats and Near Repeats also likely to have reduced

  5. Neighbourhood Area Burglary Offences 2010 Burglary Offences with no Near Repeat within 12 weeks % of Offences with no Near Repeats Not Everything Repeats… Pemberton (L1) 168 82 49% Wigan (L2) 232 135 58% Hindley (L3) 174 94 54% Leigh (L4) 344 122 35% Atherton (L5) 251 73 29% • 43% of Wigan’s Burglaries do not have a near repeat within 12 weeks • Much more likely in Atherton and Leigh • Ecological fallacy…

  6. GI* Technique • GI* provides focus allied to statistical significance • Some overlap with strategic clusters • Highlights some new areas too • But… • Are any of these techniques predictive?

  7. Predictive Abilities High volumes vs manageable intervention points

  8. More supporting analysis… • Near Repeats identified and hotspotted • Still a large area to cover • Can we focus in any further?

  9. ‘Gaps In The Clouds’ • Near repeat hotspot • Overlaid with all 2010 Burglaries that DIDN’T see a near repeat • Reveals 4 areas where a Burglary ALWAYS sees a near repeat • Clear focus…

  10. Stacking up the Evidence • Near Repeat hotspots + Analyse2Advance Clusters + GI* grids • All 4 Near Repeat hotspots contain Analyse2Advance Clusters • Significant grids on top of Analyse2Advance Clusters on top of Near Repeat hotspots = top priority • Refresh GI* weekly to keep live – tactical analysis underpinned by Strategic analysis

  11. Stacking up the Evidence • Local picture in Leigh

  12. A Combined Approach • Hierarchy of risk based on crimes falling into • GI* grids • Strategic clusters • Near repeat hotspots • Identify offenders living/operating within area and target (linked to IOM work) • Offences outside these areas should be prioritised after this but based on local knowledge of Near Repeats: • Pemberton - <300m <7days emphasis on day 1 • Wigan - <300m <7 days • Hindley – no near repeat evidence • Leigh – <300m <1 day • Atherton - <200m <7 days emphasis on day 3

  13. Current Picture • Initial pilot exercise running since 24/10/2011 • 40% strike rate – importantly, in a manageable area • Number of arrests in identified areas • Monitoring patrol locations via dip sampling • Offender element to be added in soon • Partnership approach to be developed • Works with other thematic areas – TFMV, FDR3s

  14. Wigan Strategic Assessment Predictive Mapping GMAC - Wigan 2011 Ian Bullen – Strategic Analytical Partnership Co-ordinator 9th November 2011

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