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Steps to a Sustainable B altic Sea Region Lars Rydén Director

Steps to a Sustainable B altic Sea Region Lars Rydén Director Baltic University Programme Uppsala University. The Baltic University Programme. a network of 180 universities & institutes of higher learning; coordinated by a Secretariat at Uppsala University, Sweden;

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Steps to a Sustainable B altic Sea Region Lars Rydén Director

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  1. Steps to a Sustainable Baltic Sea Region Lars Rydén Director Baltic University Programme Uppsala University

  2. The Baltic University Programme • a network of 180 universities & institutes • of higher learning; • coordinated by a Secretariat at Uppsala • University, Sweden; • focuses on sustainable development, • environmental protection and democracy; • Aim • To support the key role that universities play in a democratic, peaceful and sustainable development by: • developing university courses • participation in projects in cooperation with authorities, municipalities & others. 

  3. The Baltic University Programme In Figures - 14 countries in the Baltic Sea Basin - 183 universities - 13 regional centres - 1.500 teachers/researchers contributed - 8.500 students yearly

  4. Baltic University Programme’s Network Locations where one or more universities participate

  5. The Baltic University Programme Activity areas - education - research - information - applied projects

  6. The Baltic University Programme courses Environmental Science courses 1. The Baltic Sea Environment 2. Environmental Science 3. English for Environmental Science The Baltic Sea Region courses 1. The Baltic Sea Region – Cultures, Politics, Societies 2. Peoples of the Baltic 3. Regional Development and the Baltic Sea Region Sustainable Development course 1. A Sustainable Baltic Region

  7. The Baltic University Programme courses • Water Management courses • 1. Sustainable Water Management in Baltic Sea Region • 2. The Baltic Waterscape • 3. The Use and Management of Water • 4. River Basin Management • Environmental Managementcourses • 1. Policy Instruments for Environmental Management • 2. Cleaner Production & Technologies • 3. Product Design & Life Cycle Techniques • 4. Environmental Management Systems & Certification • Sustainable community development courses • 1. The city • 2. Building sustainable communities • 3. Sustainable Urban Management

  8. New Books from a New PublisherBaltic University Press

  9. Something New Under the SunJohn McNeill, 2000 • Development 1900 – 2000 • global population 4 x • global economy 14 x • industrial production 40 x • energy use 16 x • carbon dioxide emissions 17 x • sulphur dioxide emissions 13 x • ocean fishing catches 35 x • number of pigs 9 x • forests 0.8 x • agricultural fields 2 x • blue whale 0.0025 x

  10. The Baltic Sea region development • Energy budget 6-8 x • Fishing in the Baltic Sea 4-6 x ? • Forest production 2-4 x ? Swedish energy budget 1900-2000

  11. Development! From Joachim Spangenberg Sustainable Europe Research Institute 1800 1900 2000

  12. Development! From Wackernagel and Reese authors of the ecolo- gical footprint concept

  13. How much space do we have? • Surface area analysis - footprints • a decrease of a factor of 2 globally is needed • Material flows analysis • a decrease of a factor of 2 globally is needed • Energy flows analysis • linked to material flows • But in industrial countries this makes a factor of close to ten !

  14. Do we see changes at the turn of the millennium ? Population Growth rate is decreasing since about 1994 Energy flows Globally a steady increase continues Economic expansion Globally a steady increase continues

  15. The problem of coupling or linking Economy is coupled to material flows In industrial economies GDP is coupled to resources flows. However, in the west a significant increase in GDP/resource flow is seen in since 1970s. But this gain is offset by an increased per capita consumption, the so called rebound effect. In addition98 % of the products in Europe are ending up as waste today. Linear flows dominate.

  16. EU-15 Resource flow/GDP as CO2 emissions 1970-2000 From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson,Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics Sweden

  17. How to achieve decoupling ? The service economy We need to de-materialise the economy The recycling society We have to recycle the resources The solar society We have to de-carbonise the energy flows

  18. We will look at four issues 1. Energy 2. Transport 3. Urbanisation 4. Demography

  19. 1. ENERGY Current developments - Globally - energy consumption is increasing - Baltic Sea Region – slow increase; during periods constant - Energy use is dominated by fossil fuels - Today we use in the west about 100 energy slaves per person Tendencies for the future: • Coal is used less • Gas is used more • Transport sector consumption is increasing No serious efforts to out-phase fossils

  20. Costs of using fossil fuels • Non-renewable resources are used • Climate effect, global warming • Acidification • Eutrophication • Air pollution • Pollution with heavy metals

  21. The carbon content of the energy From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson,Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics

  22. Alternative energy developments 1. Housing sector (About 30 % of energy budget) • Energy efficient houses more common • Biomass in increasing • Heat pumps increasing in Sweden • Solar panels slowly increasing • Value of increased efficiency • 19 BSEK in Sweden alone

  23. Alternative energy developments 2. Industry sector (About 30 % of energy budget) • Cleaner production approach introduced • Large potential for energy savings • Certification addresses energy • Product policies addresses energy ISO 14001 EMAS

  24. Energy intensity per sector (E/GDP)- Industry- Transport- Service- ResidentialFrom Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics

  25. Sustainable Development dimensions Environmental Addresses the fundamental dilemma of non-renewable resource use and pollution Social Improved health potential Economic Immense economic loss in present regime

  26. 2. TRANSPORT Current developments -Globally – mobility is increasing steeply - Baltic Sea Region – fast increase - Energy use is dominated by fossil fuels - Today we travel on an average 40 km/capita/day Tendencies for the future: -Transport sector consumption is dominated by cars - Up to one car per drivers licence - Tourism increasing - Commuting is increasing No serious efforts to address mobility increase

  27. Mobility developments EU-15 1980-2000 From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson,Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on EEA statistics

  28. Mobility costs • Non-renewable resource use • Infrastructure costs • Increased forced mobility • Health costs: pollution, accidents • Economic costs

  29. Alternative mobility developments 1 Urban and personal transport • Decreased mobility – use of ICT • Decreased mobility – more efficient urban planning • Decreased mobility – shop less far away • Improved public transport • Increased biking in cities • Mobility management initiatives

  30. Alternative mobility developments 2 Technical • Alternative fuels introduced • Energy efficient cars have a large potential • Ecological driving Freight sector • Rail transport increasing • Transport addressed in product policies • Safer ship transport in the Baltic Sea?

  31. 3. URBANISATION Current developments - Cities as classical unhealthy environments less serious - Ecological footprints of cities very large - Globally – urbanisation increasing, now passed 50 % - Baltic Sea Region – urbanisation increasing, passing 90 % - Some mega cities – uneven development Tendencies for the future: - Urbanisation continues - Urban transport problems critical - Air pollution still problematic No serious efforts to address urbanisation

  32. Alternative urban developments 1 Improved personal life • How people want to live – improved housing • Rebuilding slab house areas • Urban integrative planning • Cities for people, not cars

  33. Alternative urban developments 2 Improved urban management • Improved energy management – district heating • Improved traffic planning – safer streets • Improved waste management • Greener cities • The factor five city is possible Rural and urban cooperation • Economic alternatives to agriculture • Making town and rural life attractive

  34. 4. DEMOGRAPHY Current developments - Globally – population growth is decreasing - Baltic Sea Region – population growth is levelling off - Population “collapse” in East is decreasing - Population is ageing (LE increases 3 months/year!) Tendencies for the future -Population will stabilise - Public social care in crisis - Public income and social care in crisis No serious efforts to address age challenge

  35. Different types of development Current developments - Globally – population growth is decreasing - Baltic Sea Region – population growth is levelling off - Population “collapse” in East is decreasing - Population is ageing (LE increases 3 months/year!) Tendencies for the future -Population will stabilise - Public social care in crisis - Public income and social care in crisis No serious efforts to address age challenge

  36. Who are the actors?

  37. Frames for practical work 1. Brundtland Commission, 1987 Safeguarding possibilities for future generations 2. Rio Conference, UNCED, 1992 The 40 chapters in Agenda 21 3. The natural Step Foundation Four systems conditions for sustainable development 4. Eco-design wheel Eight steps to sustainable products and services 5. Alan Atiksson approach The compass, the pyramid 6. Finland’s Future Studies Academy Forecasting, back casting, visioning

  38. Something New Under the Sun, John McNeill, 2000The long term perspective 1 20th Century priorities - International security and military might - Economic growth - Nationalism - From Totalitarian governance to Democracy

  39. Development! From Wackernagel and Reese authors of the ecolo- gical footprint concept

  40. The long term perspective 2 A crisis to get through? (in line with Johannesburg 2003) - Safeguarding Biological productivity (e.g. in Baltic Sea) - Safeguarding Water - Safeguarding Biodiversity - Decoupling economic growth and material flows

  41. The long term perspective 3 21st Century priorities - Implementing a new energy regime with large consequences for both the transport sector and urban development - A stabilised population - Developing democracy sustainability strategies accepted in society

  42. The Baltic University Urban Forum, BUUF Cooperation to promote sustainable development between cities/towns & universities in the BSR Aim - to develop strategies for sustainable development for cities and towns . Partners: Organising partners: BUP, KTH, UBC 20 cities & towns in 9 countries, 15 universities & 3 NGO’s The Union of Baltic Cities disseminates the results > 100 cities. www.Balticuniv.uu.se/buuf

  43. Go Regional - Baltic Sea Region! www.balticuniv.uu.se

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