Exhange rate policy and growth: remarks from the Argentine perspective

1. Exhange rate policy and growth: remarks from the Argentine perspective Hernán Lacunza Head of Research Central Bank of Argentina

2. Outline • Technical Suggestions • Remarks from Argentina

3. Exchange rate regime choice: from the conventional to the bipolar view, and beyond... Credibility / commitment “Developed” floats - + Floats Credibility / commitment . Inflationary performance . Capital mobility . Financial dollarization “Developed” floats FIT - + + - Floats . Inflationary performance . Capital mobility . Financial dollarization FIT + - Vanishing middle? Monetary autonomy Real volatility Pegs Vanishing middle? Monetary autonomy Real volatility Bipolar view Pegs Bipolar view - + - + Type of Shock Exchange rate regime Type of Shock Exchange rate regime Nominal Peg Nominal Peg Real Float Real Float Technical Suggestions • Reserves as proxy of FOF in reverse: possible bias in regression analysis (dummies?, systematic accumulation?) • Net Positive Intervention (Bofinger and Wollmershäuser, 2002) • Exchange rate and exports: direct test and lags effects

4. Exchange rate regime choice: from the conventional to the bipolar view, and beyond... Credibility / commitment “Developed” floats - + Floats Credibility / commitment . Inflationary performance . Capital mobility . Financial dollarization “Developed” floats FIT - + + - Floats . Inflationary performance . Capital mobility . Financial dollarization FIT + - Vanishing middle? Monetary autonomy Real volatility Pegs Vanishing middle? Monetary autonomy Real volatility Bipolar view Pegs Bipolar view - + - + Type of Shock Exchange rate regime Nominal Peg Real Float Possible Bias in the Regression Analysis Argentina `90s, Brasil 2006

5. Exchange rate regime choice: from the conventional to the bipolar view, and beyond... Credibility / commitment “Developed” floats - + Floats Credibility / commitment . Inflationary performance . Capital mobility . Financial dollarization “Developed” floats FIT - + + - Floats . Inflationary performance . Capital mobility . Financial dollarization FIT + - Vanishing middle? Monetary autonomy Real volatility Pegs Vanishing middle? Monetary autonomy Real volatility Bipolar view Pegs Bipolar view - + - + Type of Shock Exchange rate regime Type of Shock Exchange rate regime Nominal Peg Nominal Peg Real Float Real Float Systematic Reserves Accumulation

6. (1) (2) (2) (3) (4) (3) (3/1) (4/2) Net Positive Intervention Bofinger and Wollmershäuser (2002) Levi-Yeyati and Sturzenegger (2007)

7. Exchange Rates and Exports Indirect test: (1) RERt – RERt-1= b * Intervention + other variables + є (2) Exports = c * Intervention + other variables + є Direct test: (3) Exports = a * RER + other variables + є Lags: short and long run

8. Remarks from the Argentine perspective International Reserves in US Dollars

9. Reserves accumulation and FX policy • Insurance policy • Counter-cyclical policy • Real exchange rate policy • Crisis avoidance • Macroeconomic consistence • Transitory trend? Fear of floating in reverse, or one step before? • FX policy and growth: evidence in search of a theory?

10. Insurance policy

11. Counter-cyclical policy: sources of reserves

12. Macroeconomic consistence and political economy • “Purchasing power illusion”: middle class benefits  high support • “Political trap”: elected administrations do not propose changes, regime “explodes” too late Argentina: per capita GDP in constant USD (2001) 1980: USD 15,900 pc 1998: USD 9,000 pc 1973: USD 5,000 pc 1989, 2002: USD 2,600 pc

13. A transitory trend?

14. Real exchange rate volatility

15. FX policy and growth • Washington Consensus • Johnson, Ostry and Subramanian (2006): overvalued exchange rates are associated with lower growth • Rajan and Subramanian (2006): share of manufacturing exports • Prasad, Rajan and Subramanian: foreign finance doesn’t boost growth (underdeveloped financial system) • East-Asian experience: 1960-2000 Subramanian’s yesterday chart: East-Asia 17% average undervaluation; Africa 18% average overvaluation

16. Evidence in search of a theory? • Is Diaz Alejandro’s hypothesis opposed to new evidence? • Not really: DA’s views applied to the short run: contractionary effects of sharp devaluations, provoked by income redistributions to sectors with lower spending propensity (see Bebczuk and Galindo, 2006) • That’s higher propensity of saving, consistent with Levy Yeyati’s hypothesis • Contraction in the short-run (lower spending), expansion in the long-run (through higher investment)

17. Concluding remarks • Reserves accumulation: self-insurance policy, counter-cyclical policy; crisis avoidance; macroeconomic consistency • Transitory or permanent trends? Under uncertainty, it is prudent to manage any euphoria • Argentina: in transition to the steady-state • Evidence in search of theory or an “old theory” that still holds? • Too early to speak of new “regimes”. It may be a temporary, useful policy; the key point is to balance costs and benefits appropriately