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Precipitation in Norway Idar Barstad

Precipitation in Norway Idar Barstad Idar.Barstad @uni.no Uni Research – ( UniComputing / Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research). Motivation: Orographic precipitation and climate change Results from a small-scaled field campaign. Nesttun, 14th September 2005.

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Precipitation in Norway Idar Barstad

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  1. Precipitation in Norway Idar Barstad Idar.Barstad@uni.noUni Research – (UniComputing / Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  2. Motivation: Orographic precipitation and climate change Results from a small-scaled field campaign

  3. Nesttun, 14th September 2005

  4. Return period /-amount for Bergen (daily data) x Return value (mm/day) 2 months later 1 100 1000 Return period (years)

  5. 14th Nov 2005 NERSC/NASA

  6. Pressure patterns leading up to extreme precipitation Cluster # -2 days Extreme day 2 -2 days Extreme day 3 (Barstad and Sorteberg, 2012, in prep.)

  7. ARPEGE (HADCM3) ARPEGE (GFDL) Mean precipitation Norway – whole year Sorteberg & Kvamstø, 2008

  8. The study Increasing demand of products from numerical models of high resolution Q: Can models deliver what we ask for?

  9. Experimental set-up Collect precipitation using rain gauges (“tipping” buckets) For 12 weeks 2006 across an island at the west coast of Norway Run numerical model - WRFV3.3, 9-3-1 km, MYJ, Thompson MP - spectral nudging (>1000km), 45-15-5 sec time step Material from a submitted paper (Barstad, 2012 ; QJRMS)

  10. Domain 9-3-1 km domain ~500 m peaks 10 km Contours every 50 m

  11. Total precip 3 km frontal 3 km convective Vertically int. water vapor rose

  12. Total precip at 1-km grid

  13. 2 9 18 10 8 1 mod/obs

  14. Precip at high percentiles (10min accumulation) OBS mod

  15. Time-step prec OBS 1 km 3 km (0.2 mm per tip)

  16. Radiosonde info

  17. Shallow convection

  18. Extreme precip cases (q99)

  19. Time-step prec OBS 1 km 3 km

  20. WRF and shallow convection C Vincent (2010)

  21. Zoom in on the convection It doesn’t seem to be as well defined and organized as suggested by the model

  22. Thank you! Email: Idar.Barstad@uni.no

  23. Extreme precipitation – w Norway A1B scenario – downscaling using 12 GCM models Caroletti and Barstad (2009)

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