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Contextualising the Vote Function

Contextualising the Vote Function Hermann Schmitt School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester MZES, University of Mannheim. The Point of Departure. context. predictors of vote choices. vote choices. The Social-Psychological Model. social structure p membership a

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Contextualising the Vote Function

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  1. Contextualising the Vote Function Hermann SchmittSchool of Social Sciences, University of Manchester MZES, University of Mannheim Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  2. The Point of Departure context predictors of vote choices vote choices Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  3. The Social-Psychological Model. social structure p membership a in social groups r t y candidates & leaders i d vote e n t issues & i ideology socio-political f experiences i socialisation c’ n Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  4. The „naïve“ (or un-conditional) vote function then isf (vote) = constant + b1*social structure + b2*PID + b3*issues + b4*candidates + error There are estimation issues (most of it: preparation of a suitable data structure; but also the choice of an appropriate statistical model) There are also contextualisation issues (what levels and dimensions of context are relevant?) Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  5. Some Relevant Sub-national and National Context Variations. a. micro-social (social net-works);b. meso-political (constituencies);c. and macro-political (multi-level elections and the national electoral cycle). Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  6. Some Relevant X-National Context Variations a. the politicisation of social inequalities (modernisation);b. the institutional make-up of the electoral system;c. its degree of consolidation;d. its degree of ideological polarisation;e. and the prevailing political culture. Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  7. Three cross-national examples of how the electoral context affects the vote formula (ESS data). The translation of social inequalities into vote choices co-varies with the consolidation of the electoral system. The relevace of party identifications for the vote co-varies with the consolidation of the electoral system. Samllest distance voting on the left-right dimensioncovaries with the consolidation of the electoral system. Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  8. Social Inequalitiesand the Vote. Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  9. PartyIdentificationand the Vote. Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  10. Left-right Distanceand the Vote. Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  11. Current X-national Efforts Towards Contextualising the Vote Function. The EES, analysing the EP vote at different “places” in 27 national electoral cycles. The CSES, focussing on the effect of the institutional make-up of electoral systems on the vote function in some 30 countries worldwide. The True European Voter, where we integrate the data bases of roughly 250 NES from 27 European countries and consider a broader number of relevant contexts. Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  12. From the European Voter to the True European Voter. TEV is an extension of the EV, both conceptually and empirically. Conceptually, social change assumes less central a role in models of electoral change. … variation in multiple context dimensions will be controlled for its impact on the vote function. … the whole of Europe will be covered – West and East, North and South – which adds context variation. Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  13. Methodological Challenges Compared to the EV, TEV will move forward from individual variables to multi-item measures of theoretical concepts (which reduces the importance of trends) … from several nationally merged data to one cross-nationally integrated data file. … from conventional rectangular data matrices to a stacked (party stacks) and merged (countries) and matched (macro data) data structure. Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  14. Projecting the Size of the „Beast“ 27 countries *10 NES each*2000 cases each *5 parties each =2 700 000 rectangular data matrices *1000 variables (O & R, micro & macro) =2 700 000 000 data points (i.e. 2,7 billion). Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  15. In terms of MLMs (or HLMs):Five different levels involved 1 (low) party evaluations2 individuals3 parties4 elections5 (high) countries Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  16. Thank you. Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

  17. The Individual-level Variables Involved (=not so different from the EV). Hermann Schmitt on „Contextualising the Vote Function“

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