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Population and Economic Development. Writing in 1798 in his Essay On the Principles of Population and drawing on the concept of diminishing returns ,Malthus postulated of a country ,unless checked by dwindling food supplies,to grow at a geometric rate.
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Writing in 1798 in his Essay On the Principles of Population and drawing on the concept of diminishing returns ,Malthus postulated of a country ,unless checked by dwindling food supplies,to grow at a geometric rate.
Arithmetic Progression: it is a sequnce of numbers in which each subsequent term starting from the first is obtaind by adding a fixed Number to the previous No. • E,g, 1,2,3,4,5
Geometric Progression: it is a sequence of numbers arranged in a definite order such that each number after the first can be found by multiplying the preceding number by a constant Number. • E,g. 1,2,4,,8,16
Population and Economic development • ‘The central issue of our time may well turn out to be how the world addresses the problem of ever increasing human numbers’.UNICEF • Malthusian theory of Population: Main points of the theory • Population of a country increases at geometric rate (Progression). • Production increases at arithmetic rate. (Progression).
3. There will be disequilibrium between Population and Per capita income. 4. It will leads the economy towards poverty trap. Criticism of the theory: • Do not consider Technology: According to development economist the criteria used by Malthus to judge the development of an economy is not correct. Due to utilization of Technological advancement we can produce more and will be having more production e.g. Green revolution of 1960’S.
Per capita income and population growth rate haven't any such relationship: Another criticism on Malthus theory is that it suggests that population and per capita income is strongly related. In reality we are not having any empirical evidence from which we can conclude that these variables are having the same relationship as described by Malthus.
There is a natural rate of decreasing population which is ignored by Malthus : Another drawback of Malthusian theory was that there is a natural tendency of decreasing population from nature which was completely ignored by him. E.g. earthquake, War etc.
Population growth and its Problems • According to Economists population growth is a real problem from economic, social and political point of views. They are giving the following reasons to support their arguments.
Most of the economic and social evils of the world are attributed to excessive population growth. It has led major economic crises for mankind. This is the reason that people called it “Population explosion” coz it led the economy towards Poverty trap. • The positive effects of population growth on output growth could only be obtained if labor could be productively used with the available resources. As for as UDC’s are concerned they have the shortage of capital. In this context the increasing number of people could not be employed to get greater output.
The lack of enough physical and social capital along with the structural technical rigidities make the supply curve inelastic. The rise in population coupled with increased supply of labor leads to greater under employment, particularly in Agri. Sector. • Rise in population lead to more demand for food stuffs. This will push the prices up. To cope with the problem of Inflation the UDC’s have to import food grains from abroad. But this will have a big strain on the foreign exchange reserves of the poor countries which already face deficit in BOP.
According to Carl Marx during rapid growth rate of population in developing countries, will encourage the producer to exploit labors. In this case the rich class of the economy will be getting more rich, while poor become more poor. • The rise in population also leads to encourage socio-economic problems and imbalances in the economies of UDC’s. As it leads to promote terrorism, ethnicism, civil wars, hoarding, dishonesty, adulteration and corruption.
Population control measures and under-developed countries • In order to control population and raise the quality of life of the existing people the following measures should be adopted by the under-developed countries. • In order to control fertility the UDC’s should depend upon mass media and education. • They should establish family planning programs which gives advice related to population control.
Measures to control population • The Govt should have Economic incentives and disincentives for having less children and more children. • The developing countries should re-direct their population away from rapidly growing urban areas to least concentrated areas. • The Govt should make efforts to raise the status of women in the society.