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Work package 2 Modeling the inspection process

Work package 2 Modeling the inspection process. Q-Detect/EPPO workshop on 19th February 2013 Wil Hennen. WP2 Modeling the inspection process. Tools (output) Inspection Model mimics inspection process goal: compare instruments; evaluate inspection process and sampling; learning

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Work package 2 Modeling the inspection process

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  1. Work package 2Modelingthe inspection process Q-Detect/EPPO workshop on 19th February 2013 Wil Hennen

  2. WP2 Modeling the inspectionprocess Tools (output) • Inspection Model mimics inspection process goal: compare instruments; evaluate inspection process and sampling; learning • Trap models: 1. Pine processionary moth in forest 2.Thrips palmi in glass house • Simulation model remote sensing monitoring

  3. The Inspection Model : inspectionprocess Sampling Queue Queue Queue

  4. Inspection Model : support decisiontobuy Comparedetectioninstruments (cost-effectiveness) Cost+100€/lot Time +20 min. DetectionQuality+10% Which instrument is prefered? whenevaluating at: inspectioncapacity, (export)damage, loss of product quality, inspection/laboratorycosts, etc.

  5. Inspection Model : optimalisationinspection Evaluate the inspection process Sample size Risk based inspection (reduced checks; pathways) Additional inspection capacity 1st line confirmation or not

  6. Inspection Model : case study sample size Sensitivity Specificity

  7. Inspection Model : risk basedinspection Reduced checks Sample++

  8. Inspection Model : risk basedinspection Reduced checks Comparison all|split Is this cost-effective? (∆inspection costs, ∆instrument costs, ∆avoided damage, ∆laboratory costs) Chance undetected in low-risk pathway? Reduced checks allowed? Sample++

  9. Inspection Model : learning tool forinspectors Learn the inspection process By Game Simulation Learn effect of sample size (statistics) ISPM 31 (methodologies for sampling) Distinguish more pathways (risk based) Implementing instruments (where, which)

  10. The Inspection Model : demo (animation)

  11. Inspection Model : remarks on application • Complex model requires training (concepts, methods) • Is not a detection instrument! (notforinspectors) • IntendedforNPPO’s: - decisiontobuy/apply instrument - optimisinginspectionprocess - training inspectionconcepts in workshops • Trap Modelsless complex, notintendedforinspectors

  12. Trap Model forthripspalmi Questions • Identify the best location for the traps (low insect density) • Simulate and compare different trap efficiency (and lures) • Reduce chemicals (investigate use of traps as alternative)

  13. Trap Model : concepts

  14. Trap Model forthripspalmi Demonstration http://www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/TrapmodelThrips.html

  15. Trap Model forpineprocessionarymoth Goals • Probability to catch by trapping • Number of traps for cost-effective (sampling) • (Economic) effects of different positions • Sensitivity of the trapping instrument

  16. Trap Model for pine processionary moth Demonstration http://www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/PineProcessionaryMoth.html

  17. Remote Sensingmonitoring Detection of pest from satellite Goal • Detection efficiency of disease by satellite remote sensing techniques

  18. Remote Sensingmonitoring

  19. Remote Sensingmonitoring

  20. Remote Sensing monitoring Demonstration http://www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/RemoteSensing.html

  21. More information... Wednesday 20th February Possibility of further exploration of modeling the inspection process Options: • “Play around” with Trap Modelsand Remote Sensing model • Background information models, concepts and methods • Applications (case studies) of the Inspection Model

  22. End of presentation Any questions......?

  23. WP2 Modeling the inspection process Aims • Integration by modeling the inspectionprocess • Compare the costsand benefits of detectionmethods/instruments • Exploreallocation of resourcesfor a method in anoptimal way regardingcost-effectiveness • Simulating sampling procedures (e.g. reduced checks) while maintaining acceptable levels of risk (ISPM based) • Support search of best location of traps and compare trap efficiency

  24. InspectionModels : demonstration • Trap model forthripspalmi http://www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/TrapmodelThrips.html • Trap Model for pine processionary moth http://www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/PineProcessionaryMoth.html • Remote Sensing monitoring http://www.agrocenter.nl/Trapmodel/RemoteSensing.html

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