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Seven Generations of War

Seven Generations of War, Intelligence, & Information Operations: Placing Iraq on the Continuum of the Possible. Evolutionary Eras 1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation 4th Generation 5th Generation 6th Generation 7th Generation. Linch Pin Low Tech Mass New Tech New Doctrine

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Seven Generations of War

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  1. Seven Generations of War, Intelligence, & Information Operations: Placing Iraq on the Continuum of the Possible

  2. Evolutionary Eras 1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation 4th Generation 5th Generation 6th Generation 7th Generation Linch Pin Low Tech Mass New Tech New Doctrine Non-State RMA (C4I) RIA (IO/Intel) RGA Seven Generations of War Means of Winning Attrition Attrition Maneuver Asymmetry Precision Weapons Precision Intel(!!) Everything, Always

  3. Intelligence JCS: product JCS: knowledge CIA: knowledge and foreknowledge as prelude to decision and action (covert action silent) OSS: global coverage, all sources, all languages, 24/7, NRT analysis at all times Information Operations 1. Electronic Warfare (EW) 2. Operations Security (OPSEC) 3. Psychological Operations (PSYOPS) 4. Military Deception 5. Computer Network Ops (CNO). 6. Supporting InfoAssurance Counter Intelligence Physical Security Physical Attack 7. Intelligence 8. Public Affairs/Civil Affairs 9. Public Diplomacy & Assistance Definitions

  4. Evolutionary Eras 1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation 4th Generation 5th Generation 6th Generation 7th Generation Seven Generations of Intelligence/IO What Do We Need to Know Easy: Where is the army? Easy: Where are the trenches? Moderate: How many with what? Hard: Watch every non-state actor. Hard: Watch everything on the fly. Hard: Make sense of billions of bits. Very Hard: 24/7, 29+ languages and get your own house in order.

  5. Successes Good last minute exiles sent in with money and forged documents to recruit and observe Failures No deep clandestine assets No new nor firm knowledge on WMD Intel vacuum allowed WH adventurism Did not locate Saddaam Could not keep up with battle forces Unable to do guerilla/urban intelligence No peace/reconstruction intelligence (Note: the US corruption is *amazing*) US/Allied Intelligence in Iraq

  6. Successes Saved the Oil Fields Inspired desertions & no fires Kept most civilians out of fight Failures Sunglasses & armor--aid as PSYOP Girls forced to urinate publicly (rdblks) Saddam as Elvis (cowboy IO) Poor impact on Arabs (bye to Al J.) Poor impact on Europe (bye to Old E.) Ignored non-Arab Muslims world-wide (Central Asia, South Asia, India, Pakistan, Muslim Africa) US/Allied InfoOps in Iraq

  7. Net Assessment of Iraq Intel/IO F Reconstruction intel F Post-war Guerilla intel F Global IO Images F Covert Ops Options D WMD actual status C Battle damage B Kick-off OOB D Congressional debate Bottom line: Intel/IO had no coherent strategy, conflicting or absent capabilities and messages, earns a 3 out of a possible 7 on the continuum. Note: Policy decisions can be said to have handicapped intelligence.

  8. What Next: A Conflict of Visions

  9. Homeland Security Needs $75B per year incl. Ed., PubHlth. PeaceWar and Public Intel Must Go to $100B per year* SOLIC and Gendarme Must Go to $75B per year** Big War Must Drop to $250B per year (no overall cut in total NS $$) Center of Gravity is US Public Mind * Includes environmental sustainability and moral capitalism. ** Includes 450-ship Navy with littoral/humanitarian assistance fleet.

  10. War & Peace Restated COLD WAR PARADIGM ORIGINAL PARADIGM Secret Elite Decisions Restores Representative Government Command Loyal Military Rationalizes National Security Defending Business Interests Demands Moral Capitalism Drafting Obedient People Informed Healthy Public

  11. Amazon Rules! • Amazon is global library • My 410+ reviews are summative and comprise a “Cliff Notes for smart folks”--focus on Intel/NS • Search for “steele new craft of intelligence” • Go to and bookmark “see more about me” • Support reviews with votes

  12. Email Costs Nothing • If I can be helpful to you, email is free, to <bear@oss.net> • My lectures and many other references are free at www.oss.net. • Do come to PKI at Carlton in December and OSS ‘04 in April.

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