Lidar Meeting 2007 Snowmass

1. Lidar Meeting 2007 Snowmass The Scatterometer Past, Present and Future? R. A. Brown 2007 Snowmass Lidar

2. Past R. A. Brown 2003 U. ConcepciÓn

3. ASCAT on MetOp 2007 - 2019 Present

4. Surface Pressures from Space Present R. A. Brown 2007

5. Present Dashed: ECMWF J. Patoux & R. A. Brown

6. (JPL) JPL Project Local GCM nudge smoothed = Dirth (with ECMWF fields) UW Pressure field smoothed Raw scatterometer winds Present R. A. Brown 2007

7. NCEP real time forecasts use PBL model Even the best NCEP analysis, used as the first guess in the real time forecasts, is improved with the QuikScat surface pressure analyses. (Yes, this includes hurricanes.) Present R. A. Brown 2007 Snowmass Lidar

8. a b 991 999 GFS Sfc Analysis 10 Jan 2005 0600 UTC QuikSCAT 10 Jan 2005 0709 UTC c d 984 996 982 996 OPC Sfc Analysis and IR Satellite Image 10 Jan 2005 0600 UTC UWPBL 10 Jan 2005 0600 UTC This example is from 10 January 2005 0600UTC. Numerical guidance from the 0600UTC GFS model run (a) indicated a 999 hPa low at 43N, 162E. QuikScat winds (b) suggested strong lows --- OPC analysis uses 996. UW-PBL analysis indicates 982.

9. Observations from Senate hearings, 7-11-07 * NPOESS was/is a mess. Senators’ comments: “A hydra headed monster” “Can’t decide anything” “Is the administration serious about getting this information?” • A senator or congressman can speak more freely than a government scientist • A Univ. Professor can speak more freely…. • A parrot can…… • Bill Porenza was right! (Q.E.D. above.) • Mike Freilich now wears a NASA hat • The ‘Follow-on’ awaits new money + 5-years. (+ A new administration.) • Thus Quikscat must last until 2013, the earliest date for a NASA follow-on Present R. A. Brown 2007 Snowmass Lidar

10. Who Killed The Scatterometer? and the doppler lidar satellite RIP (USA) Present R. A. Brown 2007

11. Scatterometers in Space SeaSat 1978 ERS -1 1991-95 ERS-2 1995-2001 ERS-2 1995-2001; 2003 - NSCAT 1996-97 QuickScat 1999 - SeaWinds1 1998-1998 SeaWinds2 2002 - 2002 ASCAT 2007- R. A. Brown 2003 U. ConcepciÓn

12. Someone who makes money off Oil? • I first suggested this conspiracy as fiction in a novel, then as a 'far-out' idea to the working groups. Since then so many things have fit, and so much positive feedback has arisen, supporting a conspiracy campaign that I'm beginning to believe it is true. • One of the most believable aspects involves the hypothesized decision by the energy moguls in 1978 to fight global warming science and all alternate energy solutions. They were immediately successful in 1980 when Reagan removed the solar panels on the white house installed by Carter and subsequently eliminated all subsidies to alternate energies. • This alone set the US back 20-years.Two more decades of control and trillions of dollars more to the conspirators. • With the advent of the current president, and the right-wing conservative majorities in the house, senate, executive and judicial branches, the conspirators clearly accomplished their goal. • See: PBL.atmos.washington.edu; new papers R. A. Brown 2007 Snowmass Lidar

13. The Scatterometer Follow-on Definition of Follow-on: It happens at some unspecified time after the original dies Future R. A. Brown 2007 Snowmass Lidar

14. A rotating, multi-freequency, SAR-scatterometer-radiometer plus lidar Future

15. Or Future

16. On the Positive side • Big plans: a dual frequency scatterometer, high resolution, high and low winds, rotating coverage; possibly integrated SAR • Support from a new administration in 2008 (Hence Freilich’s 2013) • Don Quixote believes a lidar is coming. • I’m retiring (to 1%, for lidar). • You are still members of the dominant species on this hunk of dirt! (Panzaic Plea) Future R. A. Brown 2007 Snowmass Lidar

17. Taking measurements in the Rolls with Tower, Sondes & Lidar from space Lidar 1-km Station A 2 - 5 km Station B RABrown 9/2001

18. Programs and Fields available onhttp://pbl.atmos.washington.eduQuestionsto rabrown, Ralph orjerome @atmos.washington.edu • Direct PBL model: PBL_LIB. (’75 -’05) An analytic solution for the PBL flow with rolls, U(z) = f( P, To , Ta , ) • The Inverse PBL model: Takes U10 field and calculates surface pressure field P (U10 , To , Ta , ) (1986 - 2005) • Pressure fields directly from the PMF: P (o) along all swaths (exclude 0 -  5° lat.?) (2001) (dropped in favor of I-PBL) • Global swath pressure fields for QuikScat swaths (with global I-PBL model) (2005) • Surface stress fields from PBL_LIB corrected for stratification effects along all swaths (2006) R. A. Brown 2007

19. OLE Lateral Motion of OLE 1-2 m/s near neutral 0 convective   U  Z/ Hodograph from center zone Station B V R.A. Brown 2000

20. Counter-rotating Helical Roll Vortices 1 km  OLE U  Station A 1- 3 km  Hodograph from convergentzone V R.A. Brown 2000

21. Surface Pressures QuikScat analysis ECMWF analysis Present J. Patoux & R. A. Brown

22. There is no conspiracy by the global climate warming scientists They like to study global warming, strong hurricanes, tornados, new events In fact, we're looking forward to it (as long as we live at least 30 feet above sea level) R. A. Brown 2007 Snowmass Lidar

23. SLP from Surface Winds • UW PBL similarity model joins two layers: • Use “inverse” PBL model to estimate from satellite . Get non-divergent field UGN. • Use Least-Square optimization to find best fit SLP to swaths • There is extensive verification from ERS-1/2, NSCAT, QuikSCAT UG (UGN ) R. A. Brown 2006 AMS