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Smart growth: from indicators to policy

Smart growth: from indicators to policy. Task force on South East Europe 2020 3 July 2012 José Angel Becerra Europe 2020 and National Competitiveness Policies Enterprise and Industry DG. Objectives, indicators, policy. Objectives:

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Smart growth: from indicators to policy

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  1. Smart growth: from indicators to policy Task force on South East Europe 2020 3 July 2012 José Angel Becerra Europe 2020 and National Competitiveness Policies Enterprise and Industry DG

  2. Objectives, indicators, policy • Objectives: • Indicators to describe the competitive performance of the MS • Policy recommendations to improve performance • Two forums for policy messages: • Country-specific recommendations of the European Semester (May) • Report on Member States' competitiveness performance and policies (September)

  3. Competitiveness and its indicators • Report on MS competitiveness • Article 173 TFEU • Published yearly as part of the industrial policy package • Horizontal chapters focusing on policy areas • 26 indicators per Member State divided in four areas • Comparison to the EU average • New in 2012: industrial performance scoreboard

  4. Horizontal focus in 2012 • Industrial innovation • Sustainability of industries • Business environment • Access to finance • Regulatory burden • Services • Quality of public administration

  5. Horizontal focus area:access to bank lending • Analysis process • Identify countries that have a serious problem – based on both indicators and other evidence • Explore the reasons for the underperformance • What policy actions could improve the situation? Data source: ECB/European Commission, DG ENTR calculations.

  6. Horizontal focus area: government effectiveness rank Data source: World Bank Governance Indicators 2011. The WGI summarize information from 30 existing data sources on view and experiences of citizens, entrepreneurs, and experts in public, private and NGO sectors.

  7. Horizontal focus area: efficiency of public administration Data source: DG ENTR calculations

  8. Country indicators - Slovenia Modern and competitive industry Sustainable industry Business environment Entrepreneurship and SMEs

  9. Country indicators - Slovenia Modern and competitive industry Sustainable industry Business environment Entrepreneurship and SMEs

  10. Country indicators - Slovenia Modern and competitive industry Sustainable industry Business environment Entrepreneurship and SMEs

  11. Europe 2020: the EU’s growth strategy Strengthened EU economic governance Macro-economic & fiscal surveillance Regulation of financial services Targets and guidance for structural reforms Flagships for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth Digital Agenda Youth on the Move Innovation Union New Industrial Policy New Skills and new Jobs Platform against Poverty Resource Efficiency Modernised EU levers for growth and jobs Structural Funds and future EU budget Single Market Act Trade and external policies

  12. EU targets agreed for 2020 EMPLOYMENT 75% of the population aged 20-64 should be employed INNOVATION 3% of the EU's GDP should be invested in R&D CLIMATE / ENERGY A reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 20% A share of renewable energies up to 20% An increase in energy efficiency by 20% EDUCATION The share of early school leavers should be under 10% At least 40% of the younger generation should have a degree or diploma POVERTY Lifting at least 20 million people out of poverty

  13. The European Semester timeline January February March April May June July Annual Growth Survey and other reports Proposals for country-specific recommendations European Commission Debate & orientations Discussion in Council formations Council of Ministers Autumn: Monitoring and peer review at European level Debate & orientations European Parliament Spring EU summit: overall guidance on EU priorities Endorsement of country-specific recommendations European Council Autumn: Implementation at national level Adoption of National Reform Programmes (NRPs) & Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs) Member States

  14. Annual Growth Survey 2012 Key areas for action Five priorities • Pursue country-specific strategies to fit national fiscal and macro-financial situation • Adopt right mix of expenditure and tax shifts to maximise positive impact on growth • Strengthen capital positions of key banks • Facilitate more direct access to financing • Tap into existing sources: digital single market, internal market for services, trade • Mobilise EU funds in support of growth • Fast-track key EU initiatives (cf. AGS annex) • Pursue reforms for a growth-rich recovery • Supporting employment, notably through a Youth Opportunities Initiative • Protecting the vulnerable • Improve business environment • Facilitate absorption of EU funds • Pursuing differentiated growth-friendly fiscal consolidation • Restoring normal lending to the economy • Promoting growth and competitiveness • Tackling unemployment and the social consequences of the crisis • Modernising public administration

  15. EU recommendations for national action in 2012/13 Full text of recommendations at: http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm

  16. BULGARIA European semesterrecommendations for 2012/2013 Europe 2020 targets Euro Plus Pact commitments • Employment/labour market • active labour market policy: public employment services • social transfers and access to social services • education reform Structural policies/competitiveness • competition in electricity/gas markets • public services: public procurement, administrative capacity, independence of judicial system • energy efficiency/energy connections • absorption of EU funds • Public finances • sound public finances • pension, education and health systems • strengthen fiscal framework • tax compliance and shadow economy Financial Sector • access to finance start-ups and SMEs • Employment • increase labour participation, particularly of youth, elderly, disadvantaged groups • undeclared work • life-long learning • lower labour taxes • employment services • Competitiveness • wage setting mechanisms • public sector wage developments • competition in services • education, R&D and innovation • business environment Sustainability of public finances • align pensions to demography • incentives for older workers • national fiscal rule Financial stability • national legislation for banking resolution or other measures Employment: 76% R&D: 1.5% Tertiary education: 36% Early school leaving: 11% Greenhouse gas emissions: +20% Renewable energy: 16% Energy efficiency: 3.20 Mtoe Reduction of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion: 260 000 (national definition) Source: European Commission. For more information, see: http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm

  17. ROMANIA European semesterrecommendations for 2012/2013 Europe 2020 targets Euro Plus Pact commitments • Employment • flexicurity • increase labour participation • undeclared work • life-long learning • Competitiveness • wage setting mechanisms • public sector wage developments • education, R&D and innovation • business environment • Sustainability of public finances • align pensions to demography • incentives for older workers • national fiscal rule • Financial stability • national legislation for banking resolution or other measures The only recommendation is to implement existing commitments under EU/IMF financial assistance programmes Employment:70% R&D: 2% Tertiary education: 26.7% Early school leaving:11.3% Greenhouse gas emissions: +19% Renewable energy: 24% Energy efficiency: 10.0 Mtoe Reduction of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion: 580 000 Source: European Commission. For more information, see: http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm

  18. SLOVENIA European semesterrecommendations for 2012/2013 Europe 2020 targets Euro Plus Pact commitments • Employment • flexicurity • increase labour participation • life-long learning Competitiveness • wage setting mechanisms • public sector wage developments • competition in services • education, R&D and innovation • business environment Sustainability of public finances • national fiscal rule Financial stability • national legislation on banking resolution or other measures • Employment/labour market • labour market participation (older workers) • active labour market policies • wage setting mechanisms • flexicurity • education, vocational education- matching skills to labour market needs • Structural policies/competitiveness • regulated professional services • public services and regulation • Public finances • sound public finances • pension system • fiscal framework • Financial sector • measures in the banking sector • access to finance Employment: 75% R&D:3% Tertiary education: 40% Early school leaving:5% Greenhouse gas emissions: +4% Renewable energy:25% Energy efficiency: no target Reduction of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion:40 000 Source: European Commission. For more information, see: http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm

  19. Are we likely to meet our targets for 2020? EMPLOYMENT 75% of the population aged 20-64 should be employed INNOVATION 3% of the EU's GDP should be invested in R&D CLIMATE / ENERGY A reduction of CO2 emissions by 20% A share of renewable energies up to 20% An increase in energy efficiency by 20% EDUCATION The share of early school leavers should be under 10% At least 40% of the younger generation should have a degree or diploma POVERTY 20 million fewer people should be at risk of poverty

  20. The EU is lagging behind its R&D target • EU investment in R&D as a % of GDP in 2000, 2010 and 2020 Business as usual* If national targets are met** EU target*** ≈ 2.7% % ≈ 2.2% On the basis of current commitments, the Europe 2020 target will not be met. * Scenario based on the continuation of on-goingreforms and financial efforts. ** No targets set by CZ, EL and the UK: 2020 figures wereestimated by Commission services.*** The EU targetincludes R&D expenditure by intergovernmentalresearch infrastructures whichis not included in the R&D expenditure of the Member States. Source: European Commission

  21. Levels of ambitions for R&D vary a lot • R&D investments in the EU as a % of GDP 2010 performance* 2020 national target** EU target % * EL: 2007; AT, FI: 2010.**No targets set by CZ, EL and the UK. For CZ: a target (of 1%) is available only for the public sector. For IE: the target is 2.5% of GNP which is estimated to be equivalent to 2.0% of GDP. For LU: the target is between 2.30% and 2.60% (2.45% was assumed). Source: European Commission

  22. Long-term performances vary across the EU Productivity levels in 2011 and growth over 2000-2011 RO EU average LV LT SK EE CZ Hourly productivity growth (in %, annual average 2000-2011) BG PL HU SI IE US JP FI SE UK EL EU average EU AT DE NL MT PT ES FR CY EA DK BE IT LU Hourly productivity level (2011) Source: European Commission

  23. Links • Report on MS competitiveness • http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/industrial-competitiveness/monitoring-member-states/index_en.htm • Monitoring Europe 2020 • http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/reaching-the-goals/monitoring-progress/index_en.htm

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