Defining and Building Scenarios

1. Defining and Building Scenarios • Target market Definition – who is the target market? • Analyzing Customer Behavior – will HDTV be perceived as a truly innovative product or just another TV (replacement/additional)? • Defining Externalities – Will FCC make the decision on time? Will software be available? h:\share\rabino\information and marketing strategy.ppt

2. Scenario Planning (SP) attempts to compensate for 2 common errors in decision making – under prediction and over prediction of change. • Knowledge is divided into 2 areas: • Things that we believe we know something about and, • Elements we consider uncertain or unknowable. • SP attempts to capture the richness & range of possibilities, stimulating decision makers to consider changes that they would otherwise ignore. Scenario are aimed at challenging the prevailing mind-set. “With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn’t likely to carve out a bit slice of the U.S. market for itself.” (Business Week August 2, 1968.) h:\share\rabino\information and marketing strategy.ppt