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Demographic Trends: Uncertainty and Openness to Policy

Demographic Trends: Uncertainty and Openness to Policy. Rolf Pendall, Urban Institute Presented at HUD Research Agenda Conference, Washington, 11/17/11. Big uncertainties. The “post-crisis” reality How soon and how much will household formation recover?

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Demographic Trends: Uncertainty and Openness to Policy

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  1. Demographic Trends: Uncertainty and Openness to Policy Rolf Pendall, Urban Institute Presented at HUD Research Agenda Conference, Washington, 11/17/11

  2. Big uncertainties • The “post-crisis” reality • How soon and how much will household formation recover? • How soon, how much, and for whom will homeownership recover? • The longer-term future • What will become of Baby Boomers’ owned housing in areas with few Millennials?

  3. 2000-2010: Household formation off for those under 55, up for 55+ *assuming year-2000 household formation by age & race Source: 2000, 2010 Census 100% count

  4. Homeownership rates fell for all except oldest Americans, 2000s Source: 1990, 2000, 2010 Census 100% count

  5. White & black non-Hispanic homeownership rates hard-hit White non-Hispanic Black non-Hispanic Source: 1990, 2000, 2010 Census 100% count

  6. A potential challenge: Absorption of housing “supply” released by seniors • On net, seniors “release” owner-occupied units… • Moves into the homes of family members, friends • Moves to nursing homes (“group quarters”) • Death • …while younger households “absorb” them. • Ratio of releases to absorption shapes housing markets • Few releases, much absorption  Higher prices, more new construction • Many releases, little absorptionLower prices, less new construction

  7. Releases of owner-occupied units grew in the 2000s; absorption fell Source: 1990, 2000, 2010 Census 100% count

  8. In many states, young households already lag in absorption

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