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Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration

Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration. NOAA / National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office January 21, 2013 2100 UTC / 5:00 P M EST Steven Zubrick Science and Operations Officer. Outline. Weather Hazards Current Observations/Radar

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Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration

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  1. Weather BriefingforThe 2013 Presidential Inauguration NOAA / National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office January 21, 2013 2100 UTC / 5:00 PM EST Steven Zubrick Science and Operations Officer

  2. Outline • Weather Hazards • Current Observations/Radar • Forecast Overview • Forecast Tables and Graphs • Reagan and Dulles METAR & TAF • Illumination Data • Space Weather • Dispersion Modeling • Summary of Weather Hazards • Briefing Schedule NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  3. Weather Hazards2100 UTC 21 Jan – 1200 UTC 22 Jan 2013for Washington, D.C. 20% chance of a snow shower (between 6:00 PM and 9:00 PM) • Diminishing chances for any snow for DC this evening; outside chance of a dusting • Frontal passage between 6 and 7 P.M. • Temperatures to remain above freezing • Falling to below freezing late this evening after 10 P.M. Gusty Winds, much colder overnight (30 mph tonight, 35 mph Tuesday) • Small Craft Advisory for the Potomac. • Wind chills will drop below 20 after midnight, and will fall to the upper single digits by dawn Tuesday. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  4. Regional Visible Satellite2115 UTC 21 Jan 2013 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  5. Regional Radar/Surface Mosaic 2100 UTC 21 Jan 2013 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  6. Forecast Overviewfor Washington, D.C. Normals: High: 43F Low: 28F NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  7. Hourly Weather Graph: DC NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  8. Weather Element Forecastfor Washington, D.C. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  9. KDCA METAR & TAFRonald Reagan National Airport METAR METAR KDCA 212052Z 18007KT 10SM FEW110 08/M03 A2983 RMK AO2 SLP100 T00781028 56046 TAF KDCA 212042Z 2121/2218 19008KT P6SM FEW100 SCT150 FM212300 27015KT P6SM BKN060 FM220300 30019G27KT P6SM SCT200 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  10. KIAD METAR & TAFDulles International Airport METAR METAR KIAD 212052Z 21008KT 10SM FEW085 08/M06 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP092 T00831061 56045 TAF KIAD 212042Z 2121/2224 15006KT P6SM SCT080 FM212300 28015KT P6SM BKN050 FM220200 30018G27KT P6SM SCT100 FM222300 30011KT P6SM FEW250 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  11. Illumination Data Washington, D.C. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  12. Space Weather Summary/Forecast 1640 1660 1660 1644 1654 1654 1638 1641 1658 1658 • Summary/Forecast Details: • Region 1654 continues to decay and will begin to rotate off the disk on 21 January. Region 1660 has grown and will be the new area of interest. • Currently quiet across S and G scales • Overall threat of significant space weather activity is low 1642 Geomagnetic Storms Solar Flare Radio Blackouts Joint NOAA/USAF Space Weather Briefing Jan. 21, 2013 - 2200 UTC

  13. Phenomena Reference/Impacts • Solar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale): • No advance warning • Effects lasts for 10’s of minutes to several hours • Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earth • First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible • Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale): • Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scale • Elevated levels can persist for several days • Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew • Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions, affecting commercial airline operations • Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale): • Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms) • In extreme storms, impacts to power grid operations and stability • Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availability • Driver of aurora; severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the lower 48 Joint NOAA/USAF Space Weather Briefing Jan. 21, 2013 - 2200 UTC Complete NOAA Space Weather Scale information available online at: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

  14. HYSPLIT DISPERSION MODEL 18Z NAM 1/21/13 Release at 2300Z 21 Jan 2013 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  15. NOAA/NWSBaltimore/Washington Always up to date http://www.erh.noaa.gov/washington NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  16. Summary • Inauguration Day: • Mostly cloudy with a diminishing threat of a snow shower • Frontal passage between 6 and 7 pm • Temperatures falling into the upper 30s by early evening. • 20% chance of a snow shower between 6 and 9 P.M. • Any snow accumulation would quickly melt. • Monday Night: • 30% chance of a snow squall remains until 10 P.M. • Then clearing and cold • Gusty northwest winds to 30 mph after frontal passage • Lows by dawn in the lower 20s • Wind chills by dawn in the upper single numbers NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  17. Briefing Schedule • T-7 days: Tue Jan 15 1500 EST • T-6 days: Wed Jan 16 1500 EST • T-4 days: Thu Jan 17 1500 EST • T-3 days: Fri Jan 18 1500 EST • T-2 days: Sat Jan 19 1500 EST • T-1.5 Day: Sat Jan 19 2200 EST • T-1 Day: Sun Jan 20 1500 EST • T-14 hours: Sun Jan 20 2200 EST • T-12 hours: Mon Jan 21 0000 EST • T-9 hours: Mon Jan 21 0300 EST (if needed) • T-6 hours: Mon Jan 21 0600 EST • T-3 hours: Mon Jan 21 0900 EST • T-1 hour: Mon Jan 21 1100 EST • T+2 hour: Mon Jan 21 1400 EST • T+5 hour: Mon Jan 21 1700 EST • Other times / dates as needed or requested NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  18. Next Scheduled Briefing LAST BRIEFING Thank you for your participation! NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

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