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Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration

Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration. NOAA/ National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office January 19, 2013 2000 UTC/3:00 PM EST Steve Zubrick Science and Operations Officer/Meteorologist. Outline. Weather Hazards Forecast Overview

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Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration

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  1. Weather BriefingforThe 2013 Presidential Inauguration NOAA/ National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office January 19, 2013 2000 UTC/3:00 PM EST Steve Zubrick Science and Operations Officer/Meteorologist

  2. Outline • Weather Hazards • Forecast Overview • Forecast Tables and Graphs • Reagan and Dulles METAR & TAF • Illumination Data • Space Weather • Plume Modeling • Web Page • Summary of Weather Hazards • Briefing Schedule NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  3. Weather Hazards00UTC 19 Jan – 00UTC 22 Jan 2013for Washington, D.C. Clear skies, mild rest of today • South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon. • Small Craft Advisory until 6 pm this evening. Dry cold front for Sunday • Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to Northwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon • Temperatures still above seasonal normals • Small Craft Advisory again for Sunday Monday: Chance of snow showers and colder • Highs in the upper 30s to perhaps 40F. • Little or no accumulation NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  4. Forecast Overviewfor Washington, D.C. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  5. Weather Element Forecastfor Washington, D.C. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  6. Weather Element Forecastfor Washington, D.C. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  7. Weather Element Forecastfor Washington, D.C. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  8. KDCA METAR & TAFRonald Reagan National Airport METAR METAR KDCA 191852Z 20013KT 10SM CLR 12/M03 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP224 T01171033 TAF KDCA 191733Z 1918/2018 21010G20KT P6SM SKC FM192300 20010KT P6SM SKC WS020/23040KT FM201500 25010KT P6SM SCT250 FM201700 28010G20KT P6SM SCT250 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  9. KIAD METAR & TAFDulles International Airport METAR METAR KIAD 191852Z 19008KT 10SM CLR 12/M04 A3016 RMK AO2 SLP214 T01221039 TAF KIAD 191733Z 1918/2024 20010G20KT P6SM SKC FM192300 20009KT P6SM SKC WS020/23040KT FM201400 25008KT P6SM SKC FM201700 28014G22KT P6SM SCT250 FM202300 32010KT P6SM SCT250 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  10. Illumination Data Washington, D.C.

  11. Illumination Data Washington, D.C.

  12. Space Weather Summary/Forecast 1640 1644 1638 1641 • Summary/Forecast Details: • Region 1654 continues to decay. Only a slight chance remains for R1 (minor) radio blackouts • G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm possible with arrival of a weak coronal mass ejection • Currently quiet across S scales • Overall threat of significant space weather activity remains low 1642 Geomagnetic Storms Solar Flare Radio Blackouts Joint NOAA/USAF Space Weather Briefing Jan. 19, 2013 - 2000 UTC

  13. Phenomena Reference/Impacts • Solar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale): • No advance warning • Effects lasts for 10’s of minutes to several hours • Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earth • First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible • Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale): • Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scale • Elevated levels can persist for several days • Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew • Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions, affecting commercial airline operations • Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale): • Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms) • In extreme storms, impacts to power grid operations and stability • Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availability • Driver of aurora; severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the lower 48 Joint NOAA/USAF Space Weather Briefing Jan. 17, 2013 - 2000 UTC Complete NOAA Space Weather Scale information available online at: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

  14. HYSPLIT DISPERSION MODEL 1/21/13 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  15. NOAA/NWSBaltimore/Washington http://www.erh.noaa.gov/washington Always Up-to-date NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  16. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  17. Summary • Clear skies and mild weather rest of Saturday ; breezy winds at times • Sunday starts out nice, then NW winds and clouds increase late in the day. Breezy at times but temperatures still mild. • Colder with a chance of snow showers mainly during the afternoon on Inauguration Day. Turning colder Monday evening. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  18. Briefing Schedule • T-7 days: Tue Jan 15 1500 EST • T-4 days: Thu Jan 17 1500 EST • T-3 days: Fri Jan 18 1500 EST • T-2 days: Sat Jan 19 1500 EST • T-1.5 Day: Sat Jan 19 2200 EST • T-1 Day: Sun Jan 20 1500 EST • T-14 hours: Sun Jan 20 2200 EST • T-12 hours: Mon Jan 21 0000 EST • T-9 hours: Mon Jan 21 0300 EST • T-6 hours: Mon Jan 21 0600 EST • T-3 hours: Mon Jan 21 0900 EST • T-1 hour: Mon Jan 21 1100 EST • T+2 hour: Mon Jan 21 1400 EST • T+5 hour: Mon Jan 21 1700 EST • Other times / dates as needed or requested NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  19. Next Scheduled Briefing 0200 UTC/10:00 PM EST Sat 19 Jan 2013 Thank you for your participation! NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

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