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Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration

Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration. NOAA / National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office January 21, 2013 1600 UTC / 11:00 AM EST Jim Lee Meteorologist-in-Charge. Outline. Weather Hazards Current Observations/Radar Forecast Overview

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Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration

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  1. Weather BriefingforThe 2013 Presidential Inauguration NOAA / National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office January 21, 2013 1600 UTC / 11:00 AM EST Jim Lee Meteorologist-in-Charge

  2. Outline • Weather Hazards • Current Observations/Radar • Forecast Overview • Forecast Tables and Graphs • Reagan and Dulles METAR & TAF • Illumination Data • Space Weather • Dispersion Modeling • Summary of Weather Hazards • Briefing Schedule NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  3. Weather Hazards1600 UTC 21 Jan – 1200 UTC 22 Jan 2013for Washington, D.C. 30% chance of a snow squall (Sometime between 4:00 PM and 09:00 PM today) • Arctic cold front may produce a snow squall that could produce up to 1 inch of snow. Gusty Winds (30 mph tonight, 35 mph Tuesday) • Small Craft Advisory for the Potomac starts at Noon today. • Wind chills will drop below 20 after midnight, and will fall to the upper single numbers by dawn Tuesday. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  4. Regional Surface Observations 1500 UTC 21 Jan 2013 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  5. Regional Visible Satellite1515 UTC 21 Jan 2013 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  6. Regional Radar Mosaic 1512 UTC 21 Jan 2013 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  7. Forecast Overviewfor Washington, D.C. Normals: High: 43F Low: 28F NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  8. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  9. Weather Element Forecastfor Washington, D.C. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  10. KDCA METAR & TAFRonald Reagan National Airport METAR KDCA 211452Z 15006KT 10SM BKN250 03/M07 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP193 T00331072 57004 TAF KDCA 211522Z 2115/2212 12007KT P6SM BKN090 FM211700 16011KT P6SM BKN090 FM212200 26014KT P6SM BKN050 FM220300 30018G26KT P6SM SCT200 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  11. KIAD METAR & TAFDulles International Airport METAR KIAD 211452Z 16003KT 10SM BKN080 01/M08 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP187 T00061078 58003 TAF KIAD 211522Z 2115/2218 14006KT P6SM OVC090 FM211700 17011KT P6SM BKN080 FM212100 21013KT P6SM OVC060 FM212300 27016KT P6SM BKN050 FM220200 30015G26KT P6SM SCT150 NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  12. Illumination Data Washington, D.C. NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  13. Space Weather Summary/Forecast 1640 1660 1660 1644 1654 1654 1638 1641 1658 1658 • Summary/Forecast Details: • Region 1654 continues to decay and will begin to rotate off the disk on 21 January. • Currently quiet across S and G scales • Overall threat of significant space weather activity is low 1642 Geomagnetic Storms Solar Flare Radio Blackouts Joint NOAA/USAF Space Weather Briefing Jan. 21, 2013 - 1600 UTC

  14. Phenomena Reference/Impacts • Solar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale): • No advance warning • Effects lasts for 10’s of minutes to several hours • Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earth • First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible • Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale): • Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scale • Elevated levels can persist for several days • Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew • Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions, affecting commercial airline operations • Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale): • Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms) • In extreme storms, impacts to power grid operations and stability • Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availability • Driver of aurora; severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the lower 48 Joint NOAA/USAF Space Weather Briefing Jan. 21, 2013 - 1100 UTC Complete NOAA Space Weather Scale information available online at: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

  15. HYSPLIT DISPERSION MODEL 12Z NAM 1/21/13 Release at 2300Z 21 Jan 2013 (NAM) Release at 1700Z 21 Jan 2013 (NAM) NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  16. NOAA/NWSBaltimore/Washington Always up to date http://www.erh.noaa.gov/washington NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  17. Summary • Inauguration Day: • Mostly cloudy and mild, but cooler than yesterday • Turning cold in the evening • 30% chance of a snow squall between 4-9 P.M. • This could produce a quick accumulation of snow from a dusting to an inch. • Monday Night: • 30% chance of a snow squall remains until 10 P.M. • Then clearing and cold • Gusty northwest winds to 30 mph • Lows by dawn in the lower 20s • Wind chills by dawn in the upper single numbers NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  18. Briefing Schedule • T-7 days: Tue Jan 15 1500 EST • T-6 days: Wed Jan 16 1500 EST • T-4 days: Thu Jan 17 1500 EST • T-3 days: Fri Jan 18 1500 EST • T-2 days: Sat Jan 19 1500 EST • T-1.5 Day: Sat Jan 19 2200 EST • T-1 Day: Sun Jan 20 1500 EST • T-14 hours: Sun Jan 20 2200 EST • T-12 hours: Mon Jan 21 0000 EST • T-9 hours: Mon Jan 21 0300 EST (if needed) • T-6 hours: Mon Jan 21 0600 EST • T-3 hours: Mon Jan 21 0900 EST • T-1 hour: Mon Jan 21 1100 EST • T+2 hour: Mon Jan 21 1400 EST • T+5 hour: Mon Jan 21 1700 EST • Other times / dates as needed or requested NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

  19. Next Scheduled Briefing 1900 UTC/ 2:00 PM EST Mon 21 Jan 2013 Thank you for your participation! NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

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