OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION OF GFE AT ABRFC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HIC CONFERENCE JANUARY 2007

1. OPERATIONAL IMPLEMENTATION OF GFE AT ABRFC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HIC CONFERENCE JANUARY 2007 BILLY OLSEN & MIKE BOEHMKE

2. GFE HAS DEMONSTRATED OPERATIONAL VALUEAT ABRFC NOW

3. WHAT ARE WE DOING WITH GFE? 1 - INGESTING UP TO 120 HOURS OF FORECAST PRECIPITATION THROUGH GFE INTO NWSRFS - DATA SOURCE CAN BE WFO NDFD GRID, CONTINGENCY GRIDS (ISC), MODEL GRIDS, HPC2 – PERFORMING SIMPLE DISTRIBUTED MODEL FORECAST MODS – SUCH AS RRIMULTs3 – PROVIDING TESTING, EXAMPLE SCRIPTS, ETC FOR “GFE FOR RFCs” INTEGRATED WORK TEAM

4. WHY IMPLEMENT GFEBEFORE BASELINE DELIVERY? • FUTURE VISION FOR NWS HYDROLOGY IS GRIDDED INFORMATION & CURRENT NWS TOOL/FORMAT IS GFE/NDFD • AUTOMATED METHOD TO IMPLEMENT QPF SCENARIOS & PROD WFOs TO TAKE OWNERSHIP • - TRYING TO FIT INTO THE ONE NWS CONCEPT • dhm, ver • TESTING LEARNING CURVE, PERFORMANCE, HARDWARE, ETC

5. LEARNING CURVE • MARCH 2005 ---- ATAN APPROVED ---- • JULY 2005 - 48-HR FMAP PROCEDURE COMPLETED • - AWIPS MHS PROBLEMS FREEZES DEVELOPMENT • EARLY 2006 - TESTING BEGINS W/WFO ISC GRIDS • SPRING 2006 - 8/12 WFOS ON BOARD • SUMMER 2006 - TRAIN ABRFC STAFF • SUMMER 2006 - FINAL WFO TESTING • FALL 2006 ---- OPERATIONAL ---- • JANUARY 2007 - FIRST USE DURING FLOOD EVENT

6. WHO • ABRFC --- MIKE BOEHMKE • WFO TULSA ITO --- JAMIE FREDERICK • GSD FOLKS • IWT • 7 OTHER WFO GFE FOCAL POINTS

7. MORE DETAILS • ABRFC RUNS GFE ON THE REP • SMALL DOMAIN OF 4 KM HRAP SCALE, 6-HR TIME STEP, 120 HOURS & 34,000 GRID POINTS • - SOME PERFORMANCE ISSUES AT FINER SCALES

8. SOME ISSUES • PERFORMANCE • HARDWARE REQUIREMENTS / PROCUREMENT • - FEATURES / CAPABILITIES • RFC IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT

9. SOME ISSUES (CONT.) • FORECAST SYSTEM INTEGRATION • FUTURE ENHANCEMENTS • TRAINING

14. OPERATIONAL CASE • SYSTEM PERFORMED PERFECTLY DURING JANUARY 2007 FLOOD EVENT • SERVICE PROVIDED TO ONE OF FOUR WFOs WHO DECLINED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE TEST / OPERATIONAL USE • - WITH ONE HAS AND ONE HYDRO SHIFT WORKER ON DUTY…CONTINGENCY RIVER FORECASTS W/3 DAYS OF QPF USING HPC & MODEL OF THE DAY INPUT WERE RELEASED IN AN HCM 30 MINUTES BEFORE NORMAL DAILY RVF PRODUCTION DEADLINE

15. HPC 3-DAY QPF

16. NGUS84 KTUA 121553 HCMTUA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL COORDINATION MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK 945 AM CST FRI JAN 12 2007 ...Attention WFOs LZK... ...Contingency QPF River Forecasts for Arkansas River Mainstem and Ark Tributaries in ABRFC area... Made two contingency model runs using 3 days of QPF. One run with HPC QPF...one run with GFS model. In general for ABRFC portion of Arkansas... HPC QPF was highest with 5 to 8 inch 3-day totals. GFS has approximately 4 to 7 inch totals. Keep in mind...based on experience...we tend to overforecast Ark mainstem... especially lower portion. Van Buren insignificant rise for both QPFs FS mod maj HPC GFS Ozark 357 363 365 155k/354 ft 130k/352 ft Dardanelle 32 34 36 255k/32 ft 210k/28.5 ft Morrilton 30 34 38 320k/37.5 ft 255k/33 ft Toad Suck 275 278 280 350k/278 ft 265k/275 ft Little Rock 23 24 25 340k/23 ft 275k/19.5 ft Pine Bluff 42 43 45 350k/45 ft 280k/42 ft Mulberry 18 20 22 16 ft 15 ft Danville 20 24 26 26 ft 26 ft Gravelly 24 28 30 26 ft 27 ft Houston 25 30 32 36 ft 35 ft $$ BGO

17. FINAL COLLABORATION AFTER ABRFC / WFO COORDINATION CALL... WFO ADVISED CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS TO EXPECT MINOR FLOODING ON THE ARKANSAS RIVER WITH A PEAK DISCHARGE AROUND 250,000 CFS

18. OBSERVED PRECIPITATION

19. RESULTS WERE… FS mod maj HPC GFS OBSERVED Ozark 357 363 365 155k/354 ft 130k/352 ft 354 FT Dardanelle 32 34 36 255k/32 ft 210k/28.5 ft 26.5 FT Morrilton 30 34 38 320k/37.5 ft 255k/33 ft 215K/31 FT Toad Suck 275 278 280 350k/278 ft 265k/275 ft 273.5 FT Little Rock 23 24 25 340k/23 ft 275k/19.5 ft 17 FT Pine Bluff 42 43 45 350k/45 ft 280k/42 ft 200K/39 FT Mulberry 18 20 22 16 ft 15 ft Danville 20 24 26 26 ft 26 ft Gravelly 24 28 30 26 ft 27 ft Houston 25 30 32 36 ft 35 ft $$ BGO

20. Using GFE for Contingency QPF and River Forecasts

21. Why do this? • GFE is used daily at all WFOs. • Removes potential confusion regarding timing, amounts, and location of contingency QPF. • As compared to previous procedure, offers a better-defined step-by-step method for issuing a contingency river forecast.

22. Why do this? • ABRFC is one of three RFC sites testing the feasibility of using GFE at all RFCs: • Is grid editing slow for an RFC sized area? • Can the WFO and RFC servers handle the increased grid traffic? • No problems at ABRFC so far using the RFC Ensemble Processor as the server platform. • OHD strongly considering GFE as a future tool for editing QPF as well as grids for other weather and hydro elements. Current plans call for GFE at all RFCs in AWIPS OB8.2 or OB8.3

23. How does it work? • WFO sends contingency QPF input to ABRFC in the form of an Intersite Coordination (ISC) grid. • ABRFC runs a procedure within GFE that outputs the contingency QPF as an FMAP for NWSRFS. • Eight of twelve WFOs we serve participating (all 5 in CR, plus TSA, OUN, & AMA in SR).

24. How does it work? • Procedure details - WFO sends a contingency QPF grid to ABRFC on an as-needed basis. - # of hours to input varies according to WFO wishes (anywhere from 6 to 120 hours). - Based on discussion with the WFO, ABRFC pre- populates the contingency grid with input from the favored model (GFS, NAM, HPC QPF, etc.). This captures areas upstream of the requesting HSA, and can be modified if a blend of models is favored. The WFO’s input is then superimposed onto this field. - FMAP is output from the resultant field for NWSRFS.

25. Just what is an ISC grid anyhow ? • WFOs share these grids for each weather element as a means to view and correct discrepancies along WFO boundaries. • ABRFC is instead using ISC to receive meteorological input from the WFOs we serve. • ABRFC has created a new unofficial grid, “CQPF1,” specifically to share contingency QPF. • More grids (CQPF2, CQPF3, etc.) can be added later if necessary to support multiple contingencies.