ATM 401/501 Ensemble Forecasting

ATM 401/501Ensemble Forecasting

See related “Map” post from 6 May 2013: NH springtime “spin down” and predictability issues (click for link)

2009

Ensemble Plume Diagrams

Ensemble Plume Diagrams http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cordeira/WEB/PHD/real-time/

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/index.htm

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm

Ensemble Track Forecasting

Postage Stamp view of 384-hour GFS Ensemble Forecast… Init: 0600 UTC 8 February / Valid 0600 UTC 24 February 2011 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/

Postage Stamp view of 24-hour GFS Ensemble Forecast… Init: 0600 UTC 8 February / Valid 0600 UTC 9 February 2011 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/gefsplots/

Ensemble Spaghetti

Ensemble QPF Probabilities 24-hr Forecast 48-hr Forecast 72-hr Forecast 96-hr Forecast Prob of QPF > 0.25”

ATM 401/501 Ensemble Forecasting

ATM 401/501 Ensemble Forecasting

Presentation Transcript

Weather Forecasting Chapter 13

Forecasting Methods

Forecasting

Business and Economic Forecasting Chapter 5

FORECASTING

Forecasting

Mismatching Perturbations at the Lateral Boundaries in Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasting

Monte Carlo in different ensembles Chapter 5

Ensemble Interpretation

Forecasting technology comes in all shapes and sizes

Forecasting

The use of a multi-model ensemble in local operational ozone forecasting

Ensemble Learning

Forecasting extreme meteorological events over complex topography

Ensembles and the Short Range Ensemble Guidance Website at the SPC

Ensemble Portal

Forecasting

Aims and Requirements for Ensemble Forecasting By T.N.Palmer ECMWF

Ensemble Forecasting from LPJ simulations over the Mediterranean basin: Preliminary Results

Ensemble activities in COSMO

LAMEPS – Limited area ensemble forecasting in Norway, using targeted EPS

Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting with the Coupled GFS-Noah Modeling System