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Medical Course of Action Tool

Medical Course of Action Tool. Basics of using M-COAT. Agenda. Introduction Agenda Learning Objectives Problem Statement Casualty Estimation Methods Medical Course of Action Tool Conclusion. Learning Objectives.

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Medical Course of Action Tool

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  1. Medical Course of Action Tool Basics of using M-COAT

  2. Agenda • Introduction • Agenda • Learning Objectives • Problem Statement • Casualty Estimation Methods • Medical Course of Action Tool • Conclusion

  3. Learning Objectives • To introduce the fundamental principles of casualty estimation and their effect on CHS planning. • To teach the basics of using the Medical Course of Action Tool.

  4. Problem Statement • There is no Army approved automated tool for conducting casualty estimation and CHS course of action planning for division and below operations • Kuhn Study / JCS Guide 3161 - Corps level casualty estimation, can drill down to Division • FM 101-10-1 vol 2 - Division and above • ARI’s Commander’s Battle Staff Handbook - Battalion level casualty estimation • Medical Analysis Tool (MAT) • Corps and above Course of Action tool • Does NOT do Casualty Estimation

  5. Casualty Estimation for 1003V(US/Coalition Forces) • Used numerous tools: • Medical Analysis Tool • CJSC 3161, “Casualty Planner” • US AMEDD DNBI Data • FM 8-55 • Dupey Attrition Model -1% and 3% • MCOAT (Medical Course of Action Tool) • ACE (Army Casualty Estimate) • 34 days (19 Mar – 20 April) • “Shock and Awe” approx 1% for TBCs and 4% for DNBI Source: BG Weightman AUSA Presentation 2004

  6. Casualty Estimation Methods • FM 101-10-1 Volume 2 • OPLOG Planner • G1/G4 Battle Book • Logistics Estimation Worksheet • JCS Guide 3161 • Dice • Agree to what the Commander says • Modified Dupuy Method

  7. Background • M-COAT was originally developed in Force Structure and Analysis at Fort Sam Houston, TX in 1998 • Confusion on whether it is a casualty estimation tool or medical workload tool – it is a medical workload tool • Available on AKO 70B Toolkit (https://www.us.army.mil/suite/folder/540490). • It is NOT AMEDD approved!!!!

  8. AKO Folder – 70B Toolkit https://www.us.army.mil/suite/folder/540490

  9. M-COAT Overview • Casualty Estimation is a critical Battle Staff Task • Medical Requirements • Personnel Replacements • Not intended to serve as a Force Structure or Programming tool! • Based on COL Trevor Dupuy’s casualty estimation method from Attrition (Nova Pub. 1995) • Conventional casualty estimation method only • Intended to serve as TACTICAL level Course of Action Tool A Low Cost, Low Risk, Near Term Solution

  10. M-COAT • Five Modules • Casualty Estimation • Patient Flow- RTD and Evac Losses • Workload • Evacuation Requirement and Capability • Operating Room Req. and Cap. • Hospital Bed Req. and Cap. • Medical Supply • Basis of Allocation Rules • ExcelÒ Spreadsheet Based

  11. M-COAT Casualty Estimation(con’t) • Nine Factors that affect WIA rates: • Population at risk (PAR) • Terrain (17 variables) • Weather (12 variables) • Posture (8 variables)* • Strength (17 variables) • Opposition (31 variables)* • Surprise (4 variables) • Sophistication (15 variables)* • Operational Form (5 variables)* 258,019,200 combinations x PAR * Denotes areas that are modified from Dupuy’s original formula

  12. M-COAT Casualty Estimation(con’t) • Three Factors that affect DNBI • Population At Risk • Battlefield Location (5 variables) • Geographic Location (36 variables) • Based on Force Structure and Analysis’ DNBI rates

  13. M-COAT Modules • Patient Flow- Derived from TAA05 patient flow • Workload - Uses FM 8-55 evacuation planning factors • Class VIII consumption- Medical Resupply Sets, FST supplies, and Blood • Basis of Allocation rules (MRI and MF2K)

  14. A Graphic ComparisonOf Various Casualty Estimation Methods -1566% +1566% G1/G4 Battle Book -1416% +1416% FM 101-10-1 Dupuy -42% +42% M-COAT (Modified Dupuy) -30% +30% Casualty Estimate (Standard Error of the Estimate) Based on 13 Battles (1940-1991)

  15. Medical Course of Action Tool

  16. Conventional vs. Operations Other Than War Examples of the different settings that COULD be used

  17. Conventional vs. Operations Other Than War Example – Constant: 5k Soldiers, Urban, Dry Sunshine, No Sophistication Advantage Vary: Posture, Opposition, Surprise and Pattern of Operation Examples of the different settings that COULD be used

  18. Medical Course of Action Tool

  19. Airborne Operations • Estimates the additional number of casualties that suffer injury from the jump • Airborne casualties are in addition to conventional casualties • Influences: • Day vs. Night (night has higher casualty rate) • Equipment weight (greater weight increases casualties) • Drop Zone Conditions (harder surface increase casualties)

  20. Creditable Casualty Range

  21. Conclusion • One of several tools available for use by medical planners, it is NOT the only / best / preferred way • Routinely updated and improved based on user feedback, tell me how to make it more useful • Do not hesitate to call or email and ask questions • Bruce.shahbaz@us.army.mil

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