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Course of Action Analysis

Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT). Purpose. References. Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process Discuss the associated task steps Identify the products resulting from COA analysis

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Course of Action Analysis

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  1. Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT) Purpose References • Define course of action (COA) analysis and its role in the crisis action planning process • Discuss the associated task steps • Identify the products resulting from COA analysis • Provide lessons learned from previous exercises and operations • JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, App B, 10 Sep 01 • JP 5-00.2, Joint Task Force Planning Guidance and Procedures, 13 Jan 1999 • CJCSM 3500.05, JTF HQ Master Training Guide, 15 Apr 97 Course of Action Analysis

  2. Crisis Action Planning Process C R I S I S III Course of Action Development OPORD & Deployment Data Base IV Course of Action Selection V Execution Planning II Crisis Assessment I Situation Development VI Execution And/or Warning Order Planning Order Alert Order Execute Order I Mission Analysis II Course of Action Development III Analysis of Courses of Action IV Comparison of Own Courses of Action V Commander’s Decision Commander’s Estimate Process Key Planning Concepts: • Supported Strategic Commander’s (higher headquarters) strategic intent and operational • (MNF) focus • Orientation on the strategic and operational centers of gravity of the threat • Protection of friendly strategic and operational centers of gravity • Phasing of operations

  3. Courses of Action Analysis“ Gaming the COAs ” • The purpose of course of action analysis is to evaluate each proposedfriendlyCOA as though executed against the most probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA (threats can include starvation, disease, weather and etc. for HA/DR missions). This analysis illustrates what the commander considered the most significant and influential aspects of the situation.

  4. Analysis of COAs: Key Points • Determine the effectiveness of each friendly COA on the most probable & most dangerous enemy COA or threat situation • Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion, such as: • By time phasing • Geographic location • Functional event • Consider the potential actions of subordinates two echelons down

  5. Analysis of COAs: Key Points (cont’d) • Consider crisis termination issues: think through own action, enemy reaction/ threat consequences of our action, and counteraction • Conclude with: • Revalidation of feasibility, acceptability, suitability • Determine additional requirements • Make modifications • List advantages and disadvantages of each COA

  6. Task Steps Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Course of Action Analysis Revalidate

  7. Gather the Tools Gather the Tools • Friendly COAs • The most probable & most dangerous enemy or threat COAs • Combined operations area reference • Representation of friendly force distribution and probable threats • Representation of environmental/civil conditions • Synchronization Matrix • Action-Reaction/Threat Consequence-Counteraction matrix • Identify, list, and review existing limitations List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

  8. List Assumptions • List the assumptions made during mission analysis • Validity: • Is the assumption necessary to continue planning? • Will the result change without the assumption? • Logical? • Realistic? Gather the Tools List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

  9. Example: Planning AssumptionsCoalition Task Force (CTF- Bayanihan) • Host country will allow temporary basing of Troop Contributing Nations (TCNs) • Aerial ports of debarkation (APODs) and sea ports of debarkation (SPODs) are operational • TCNs are self-sustaining for first 72 hours • Weather will remain favorable for duration of mission • No other contingencies for CTF/MNF for duration of mission • Host nation will be the MNF lead nation (Philippines)

  10. List Known Critical Events and Decision Points Gather the Tools List Assumptions • Critical events are essential tasks that require detailed analysis • Decision points identify decisions the commander must make to ensure timely execution andsynchronization • Time available for analysis affects length of the critical events list Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

  11. Select Method of Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions • Computer Assisted • Integrated theater management model • Tactical warfare model • Joint conflict model • Manual • Deliberate timeline analysis • Operational phasing • Critical events Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

  12. Select Technique to Record and Display Analysis Gather the Tools List Assumptions • Techniques • Narrative technique • Sketch and note technique • Synchronization matrix Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method • Considerations • Assets available • Time available Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

  13. Wargame the Operation and Assess Results Gather the Tools List Assumptions • Visualize the flow of operations • Consider CTF component capabilities two echelons down • “Action- Reaction/ Threat Consequence-Counteraction” Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

  14. Conduct the Wargame: Checklist • Identify role players, recorders, and facilitators • Review assumptions, restated mission, and phases • “Threat Cell”: Threat lay down (disposition) • CPG leader – lead the “Friendly” actions • C2 lay down and structure • Forces (by component and function) • Firepower - priority targets • Friendly Intel action • Support (C1, C4, C6, Medical, Engineering) • Interagency actions • Threat reaction to friendly actions • For each phase or movement of forces, record the decision points, critical information requirements, branches, sequels, risks, other key issues • Friendly counteraction to threat reaction Course of Action Analysis

  15. Synchronization Matrix TIME CONTINUOUS OR SINGLE EVENT PROBABLE THREAT DECISION POINTS CRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS OPN MOVEMENT AND MANEUVER OPN FIREPOWER OPN PROTECTION OPN INFORMATION OPN INTEL OPN SUPPORT ARFOR/LAND COMPONENT MARFOR/LAND COMPONENT NAVFOR/MARITIME/JFACC AFFOR/AIR COMPONENT/JFACC JSOTF OTHERS D-DAY/ H-HOUR D + 1 D + 2 FUNCTION JOINT AREAS COMPONENTS

  16. Simplified Sync Matrix EVENT EVENT EVENT EVENT ACTOR COMMENT COMMENT COMMENT COMMENT CCTF CARFOR CNAVFOR CAFFOR CMARFOR CSOTF CPOTF

  17. Sample Analysis Worksheet CRITICAL EVENT: SEQ- UENCE NUMBER ACTION REACTION/ THREAT/ ENEMY CONSE- QUENCES COUNTER- ACTION ASSETS TIME DECISION POINT CCIR REMARKS

  18. Action/Reaction/Counteraction ACTION REACTION/CONSEQUENCE COUNTERACTION 1ST Priority is Provide Medical Support Large Population W/O Shelter increases sickness Modify TPFDD/Deployment Movement Plans to allow CTF to provide shelter and prioritize medical care.

  19. Advantages & Disadvantages COA 1 Advantages Disadvantages - Rough integration of forces - Rough transition - Complex organization - Not flexible at all - Adequate force protection - Rapid delivery - Meets critical needs Modifications 1. Assign national forces by sector 2. Lead nation provides comms w/robust LNOs

  20. Results of Analysis • Identification of advantages and disadvantages of each friendly COA • Identification of additional assets required (if any) • Refinements or modifications to the COA • Risks and actions to reduce the risk at each • geographic location or functional event • Adjustments to any established control measures Course of Action Analysis

  21. Analysis Results (cont) • Deployment/Movement requirements • Synchronization requirements • Estimate of the duration of critical events as well as the operation as a whole • Required support from outside of the CTF • Requirements for logistic support • Clear picture of command relationships • Branches and sequels Course of Action Analysis

  22. Analysis Results (cont) • Critical information required to support decision points • Additional commander’s decision points • Measures of effectiveness for each phase • Areas of high interest for reconnaissance, surveillance • Identification of component tasks • Task Organization requirements Course of Action Analysis

  23. Conduct Risk Assessment Gather the Tools • Identify risks • Assess risks • Analyze acceptability of risk • Identify ways and means of risk mitigation List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

  24. Revalidate Gather the Tools • Suitable (Adequate): Will the COA accomplish the mission when carried out successfully, In other words, is it aimed at the right objectives? • Feasible: Do we have the required resources and can those resources be made available in time? • Acceptable: Even though the COA will accomplish the mission and we have the required resources, is it worth the cost in term of possible losses (military, time, political, etc.)? • Complete: Do the COAs answer WHO-WHAT-WHEN-WHERE-WHY-HOW? • Distinguishable:Are the COAs sufficiently different from each other? List Assumptions Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

  25. Lessons Learned • Identify events/locations and enemy capabilities first. • Analyze the end state and transitions. • Don’t get caught in detailed analysis of one aspect at the expense of the entire COA. Watch time constraint. • The purpose of analysis is to identify advantages and disadvantages, not to prescribe component reactions. • During the COA analysis, the staff must not compare friendly COAs. The COAs will be analyzed against the enemy’s COAs.

  26. Course of Action Analysis:Summary Gather the Tools List Assumptions • Evaluate each proposedfriendlyCOA as though executed against the most probable and most dangerous enemy or threat COA • Conduct analysis in an orderly fashion • Consider crisis termination issues • Think through action-consequences-reaction • Analyze/wargame and record results • Revalidate Critical Events & Decision Points Analysis Method Recording Method Analyze & Assess Risk Assessment Revalidate Course of Action Analysis

  27. Multinational Planning Augmentation Team Course of Action Analysis Questions?

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