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Marketing Systems Group

Southern California MRA Education Seminar. Marketing Systems Group. Incidence: Calculating, Understanding, Managing. Presentation September 17, 2005. Incidence.

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Marketing Systems Group

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  1. Southern California MRA Education Seminar Marketing Systems Group Incidence: Calculating, Understanding, Managing Presentation September 17, 2005

  2. Incidence Incidence: The frequency of something occurring in the population. It usually refers to persons and is stated as a percentage (i.e. the percentage of people in the US who eat cereal for breakfast). In marketing and opinion research, incidence is a measure of the level of effort needed to reach qualified or eligible respondents. • Source: MRA Web Site

  3. Calculating Incidence • Based on screened households; completes, qualified terminates, not qualified terminates and over quotas • Qualified Respondents / Qualified + not qualified respondents • Qualified Respondents = Completes and mid interview break-offs (qualified terminates) • Not Qualified Respondents = terminates from screening and over quotas

  4. Calculating Incidence • Standard equation for calculating incidence (Completes + Qualified Terminates) -------------------------------------------- (Completes + Qualified Terminates + Not Qualified + Over Quota) Source: MRA web site and Researchinfo.com

  5. Calculating Incidence

  6. Calculating Incidence Completes / Completes + Terminates 400 Completes / 400 Completes + 319 Terminates 55.63% Incidence

  7. Study Incidence vs. Net Effective Incidence • According to the MRA • The Study Incidence is the percent of the population that qualifies for the study • The Net Effective Incidence “measures the amount of work it takes to achieve a particular study goal”

  8. Study Incidence vs. Net Effective Incidence • ComponentsCM = Completes OQ = Over Quota BO = Breakoffs (Qualified) TQ = Terminates • Difference in how “Over Quotas” are treated

  9. Study Incidence • Study Incidence calculation includes Over Quota in the top number among qualified respondents. CM + OQ + BO ------------------- CM + OQ + BO + TQ

  10. Net Effective Incidence • Net Effective Incidence calculation does not include Over Quota in the top number among qualified respondents, only in the denominator CM + BO ------------------- CM + OQ + BO + TQ

  11. Study Incidence vs. Net Effective Incidence Study Incidence = 71.42% 100 + 10 + 15 ------------ 100 + 10 + 50 + 15

  12. Study Incidence vs. Net Effective Incidence Net Effective Incidence = 62.86% 100 + 10 ------------ 100 + 10 + 50 + 15

  13. Net Incidence • Net Incidence • Estimated net incidence after factoring in all incidence figures • Targeting Males 18 to 34, Own a Product, have a cell phone • Males 18-34 = 24%, • Product ownership = 65%, • Cell phone ownership = 65% • Net Incidence = 24% * 65% * 65% = 10.14%

  14. Calculating Overall Incidence • Over Quotas and Hard to Reach Groups • Los Angeles County – 400 completes – 100 completes per ethnic group • Census Estimates for an RDD sample • White = 29.8%, Black = 8.9%, • Hispanic = 46.8%, Asians = 12.4% • Completes will fall in as you screen for the hard to reach group

  15. Calculating Overall Incidence • Calculate number of screens needed for the hardest to reach group • 100 / 8.9% = 1124 contacts • Estimated qualified completes for other Groups • White 1124 * 29.8% = 326 • Hispanic 1124 * 46.8% = 526 • Asians 1124 * 12.4% = 139

  16. Calculating Overall Incidence • Anything over the 100 quota is an over quota • Overall Incidence calculated on total screens • 400 / 1124 = 35.58% • Other factors may decrease expected incidence • Incidence can be managed with the sample design

  17. Managing Incidence • Census Incidence

  18. Managing Incidence

  19. Managing Incidence • Incidence = 7.89% • 6 Completes / 76 Completes + Terminates • Refusal Rate = 24.752% • Refusals / Completes + Terms + Refusals

  20. Managing Incidence

  21. Managing Incidence • Incidence = 8.35% • 29 Completes / 347 Completes + Terminates • Refusal Rate = 14.742% • Refusals / Completes + Terms + Refusals

  22. Influences on Incidence • Order of Screening Questions • Asking sensitive questions up front • Screening for age in the intro • Wording of screening questions • Refusal Rate • Soft Refusals • Contact Rate • Manage incidence with the sample design

  23. Meg Ryan Marketing Systems Group / Genesys Mryan@m-s-g.com 800.336.7674

  24. Reference • www.mra-net.org • www.researchinfo.com

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