Risk, Trade Space & Analytics in Acquisition: A Special Meeting by Stephen Bagby

1. MORS Special Meeting: Risk, Trade Space, & Analytics for Acquisition Stephen Bagby Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Cost & Economics) 20 September 2011

2. Cost Awareness Planning, Programming, Budgeting & Execution (PPBES) Joint Capabilities Integration & Development System (JCIDS) Defense Acquisition System Funding Acquisition Requirements 2

3. Requirements Process • DOTMLPF Capability Gap Cost Benefits Analysis (CBAs) • Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) – Cost Estimates • Initial Capability Document (ICD), Capability Development Document (CDD) & Capability Procurement Document (CPD) Cost Estimates • Voting Member of the Army Requirements Council (AROC) Joint Capabilities Integration & Development System (JCIDS)

4. Acquisition Process • Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009 • Service Cost Positions • Annual Review of ACAT1 Programs • Earlier Costing at MSA • Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) Updates at MSB & MSC • More Focus on Operating & Support (O&S) Costing Defense Acquisition System • Affordability – By System W/ O&S, Should cost vs. Will cost • Configuration Steering Board Annual Reviews

5. Funding Process • POM Requires Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) $25 Million • POM Weapon System Reviews for Approved Programs • Cost Targets / Trades • Portfolio Affordability • Updated Cost Position to Support President’s Budget • GFEBS – Design Cost Controller Planning, Programming, Budgeting & Execution (PPBES)

6. Acquisition Reform - Cost Analysis Effort MS B AoA (updated as necessary) CDD Review CARD Review ICE/CCE for MDAPs ICE/CCE for MAIS EA for MAIS APB MS C AoA (updated as necessary) CPD Review CARD Review ICE/CCE for MDAPs ICE/CCE (for MAIS only if no significant changes to the EA) APB (updated, as necessary) MS FRP/FDDR CARD Review ICE/CCE for MDAPs ICE for MAIS APB PBL BCA MS A AoA (Lead or Oversight) ICD Review ICE/CCE for MDAPs ICE /CCE for MAIS EA for MAIS Annually +70 Weapon System Reviews Economic Viability for DBSMC Certification (MAIS only) Portfolio Reviews Configuration Steering Boards As Required 2366A & B Certification for MS A & B Cost Benefit Analysis (for New, Unfunded, or Expanded Requirements) Setting and Rebaselining APBs (Nunn-McCurdy & ACAT Change)

7. Early Costing Pre-Milestone-A Challenges Data Availability and Suitability Limited system definition and lack of design maturity but desired capabilities are known Lack of data traditionally used in cost analysis such as quantities, schedules, and strategy Solution Army has developed a capability analysis architecture • 74 capability descriptors available • Capability architecture mapped to recognized DoD capability structures: • JCA = Joint Capability Areas • FCB = Functional Capabilities Boards

8. Cost Risk and Uncertainty Analysis • Cost Risk Analysis will not reduce the risk inherent in a program; however it helps PM to understand the nature of the risk involved, and the uncertainty associated with the cost estimates • More frequent Cost Risk Analysis result in a more realistic assessment of the cost and schedule and the development of effective risk mitigation plan Risk Reduction Risk analysis reduces the uncertainty between requirements and funding

9. Cost Analysis Required Skills and Knowledge Supporting Skills and Knowledge • Engineering Economics • Terminology • Computers • Statistics and Probability • Optimization • Productivity Management • Human Relations-Behavioral Science • Organizational Structures • Measurements • Cost Estimating • • Hardware and Software • • Contractor’s Costs • Life Cycle Cost • R&D, Production, O&S Planning and Scheduling • Planning Basics • Scheduling Basics • Schedule Control • Economic Analysis and Cost Benefit Analysis • • Budgeting and Cash Flow • • Break Even Analysis • Value Engineering Cost Control • Work Breakdown Structure and Code of Accounts • Earned Value (also Achieved and Accomplished Value) • Key Cost Control Techniques Contract Management • Contracting Arrangement • Contract Administration Cost Risk Analysts required skill are all of the above

10. C A Range vs. Point Estimates +75% Range estimate provides a degree of risk and uncertainty Upper bound Point estimate is most likely within range estimate with higher potential for cost increase Range of Risk & Uncertainty Target Cost Parametric -10% to +20% Analogy -15% to +30% Actual -3% to +10% Engineering -5% to +15% ROM -30% to +75% Estimating Accuracy Trumpet Technical and Program Maturity Lower bound B -30% Materiel Solution Analysis Technology Development Engineering and Manufacturing Development Production & Deployment Operations & Support Systems Acquisition Sustainment Pre-Systems Acquisition

11. Comparative AnalysesSupporting Resource Informed Decision AoAAnalysis of Alternatives • Major Acquisition Program at MS-A and MS-B Requirement Decision • Includes Life Cycle Cost and Operational Effectiveness EAEconomic Analysis • Major Information Systems at MS-A and MS-B Requirement Decision • Also for Military Construction Decision by Army Corp of Engineers • Major Program Performance Based Logistic Contractor Logistic Support vs. Organic Support Decision • Synonymous with CBA for non-PBL analysis BCABusiness Case Analysis CBACost Benefit Analysis • All New and Existing Initiatives Resourcing Decision over $10M • Process Through CBA Review Board (CBA-RB)

12. Summary Decisions Should be Resource Informed Cost Effectiveness Supports an Army Enterprise Resource Framework Cost Benefit Analysis – Making the case for a resource informed decision Cost Benefit Analysis Provides another Tool to Support the Military Decision Making Process Training Programs will Develop Essential Staff Skills

13. Army Cost Benefit Analysis Making the case for a resource informed decision : Weighing the total expected costs against the total expected benefits over the near, far, and lifecycle timeframes from an Army enterprise perspective Operational Value Benefits Costs The value of Cost Benefit Analysis: • Supplements professional experience and military judgment with sound analytical techniques • Ability to make better resourced-informed decisions • Results in a strong “value proposition” – a clear statement that the benefits more than justify the costs and required trade-offs