Global Changes and Industrial Ecology

1. Global Changes and Industrial Ecology Pedro J.J. Alvarez, Ph.D., P.E., DEE Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering

4. Anthropogenic Changes • We have transformed or degraded 39-50% of the land surface (agriculture, urbanization). • Since 1850, the atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased by 40% (hydrocarbon combustion, deforestation) • We use 50% of readily available fresh water in the planet • More than 20% of bird species became extinct in the last 200 years • 22% of fishery resources have been depleted, and 44% are in danger

6. Major Environmental Problems México, D.F.

7. Acid Rain lakes (fish) soil (agriculture) art

8. Mutant Frogs (Minnesota)

9. What Happens to Humans? • 95% of pesticides could cause cancer!!! • Babies and young children may have poor brain development

10. Selected Emerging Pollutant Classes • Endocrine disruptors Pharmaceuticals & cosmetics that bioaccumulate and affect reproduction (PFOs, synthetic musk fragrances, PBDEs) • Waste Nanomaterials Growing industry with materials that bioaccumulate or co-transport pollutants (e.g., C-nanotubes, bucky balls) • Biological agents Calcivirus, prions, antibiotic resistance genes, transgenics

11. Global Problems

12. The Atmosphere 100 km • Relatively small compartment (0.3% of the ocean's mass) • Easy to contaminate (little dilution) • Greenhouse gases CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O affect global climate

13. CO2 Emissions

14. Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs Trap IR radiation Irradiate heat

16. Global Warming: Flooding (MSL rises 4 mm/ year, 2100: 15-95 mm/ year) Malaria, schistosomiasis, cholera Saline Intrusion New Deserts? Disasters (hurricanes)

17. Average temperature increased by 0.6 C (the 90’s was the warmest decade of the century) Degree Celsius Goddard Institute for Space Studies 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

18. Precautionary Principle • There is considerable uncertainty regarding anthropogenic effects on global climate, but…. • “When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause-and-effect relations are not fully established scientifically”. 1998 Wingspread Statement • “If we live as if it matters and it doesn’t matter, it doesn’t matter. If we live as if it doesn’t matter, and it matters, then it matters”.

19. Biodiversity is in Danger Perhaps 10,000 species per year are lost out of 4-14 million total (1.7 million known species)

20. “To worry about the environment and biodiversity, you must have at least one full meal per day” Richard Leaky, Director, Kenya Wildlife Service

21. Environmental problems Have two roots 1. Demographic explosion….

22. This is mainly a problem of underdeveloped countries

23. The second root of environmental problems: 2. Energy use and consumerism, developed countries (exacerbated by the globalization of the economy) Per capita CO2 Emissions (Energy use - hydrocarbons, coal)

24. Global Poverty = most serious environmental problem (1.3 x109 lack potable water, 2.3 x109 lack sanitary facilities, 13 million children/yr die of hunger, diarrhea)

25. UN Stats: The Impoverished World • 50% live on less than $2/day; have no electricity; they have never made or received a phone call • 38% lack sanitary facilities and conveyance of sewage • 21% lack safe drinking water • 22% are illiterate (15% women, 6% men) • Malaria, HIV/AIDS, dengue, diarrhea/dysentery kill millions each year

26. UN Stats: The Rich World • 20% generate and enjoy 86% of the wealth • 5% (U.S./Canada) consume… • 25-30% of its nonrenewable Resources • Emit 25% of GHG • Use 30% of its energy • $10 Trillion GDP • Only 6% own a computer • Only 2% have access to the Internet

27. Some environmental problems improve with development as Income per capita increases

28. Industrial Ecology • It is a multidisciplinary framework to design and operate industries as if they were living entities interacting with ecosystems. • Seeks to attain a balance between economic gains and ecological and global interests. • It is the science behind sustainable development.

29. Natural Ecology Heat Detritus Death Heat Homo sapiens Waste Respiration Carnivores & Excretion (CO2, other) Herbivores Mineralization Primary Produces Solar Energy Primary Production Nutrients

30. Industrial Ecology CH4, CO2 Landfill Heat Waste Heat Recycle Reuse Remanufacture Heat Products Intermediates Waste Incineration Materials Energy + Work Raw Materials

31. Conventional Design Energy Energy Raw Materials Manufacture Product Use Discard in Landfill Waste Waste

32. Green Design Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency Waste minimization Safe disposal Innocuous end products Product Use Manufacture Raw Materials Recycle Reuse Remanufacture, Recycle

33. Green Options for Existing Processes • Eliminate or replace product (life cycle assessment) • Eliminate or minimize hazardous substance use (mass balance) • Minimize energy use (audits) • Dematerialization (Minimize weight and/or volume, Combine various functions into one product, Make fewer different styles, Minimize/take back packaging, Moore’s Law: the speed of a chip doubles every 2 years) • Increase efficiency and economic life • Redesign for reuse, remanufacture, or easy repair • Reflect environmental cost in the price of the product

34. Industry (not government) must be the agent of change Transport Distribution, Sell Packaging take-back Manufacture Remanufacture Recycle Use by Consumer Recycle Reuse Environmental Impact? Water, Air, Soil Human and Ecological Minimize Waste Marketing Final Disposal to the Environment Product Development New Product Idea

35. Annual Cost of Pollution Control in the USA

36. Value of Stocks (1/1/94 - 12/2/99) 390% Green Companies +228% 340% 290% 240% 190% Other Companies +120% 140% 90% 1994 1996 1995 1997 1998

37. Sustainable Development “Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” Gro Brundtland, Prime Minister of Norway When considering a new project, • Is it reversible? • Is it persistent? • How much uncertainty? (generational justice) • Is it socially just? Ideal Project

38. Global sustainability needs international collaboration to meet complementary needs of the 1st and 3rd worlds • Developing countries have natural resources (land, water, energy, minerals, genetic pool) and work force. • Developed countries have the capital and technology needed to exploit these resources sustainably (globalización?)

39. Old – Global Consumer Me More Materialism Quantity Greed Short-term Rights New – World Citizen We Enough Holism Quality Need Long-Term Responsibilities Old and New Paradigms Elkington (1997) – Cannibals with Forks

40. “The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when they were created”

41. Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it is the only thing that ever has. Margaret Mead

42. Questions?

43. Conclusions • Global change and global warming are already occurring • The world will be warmer in the 21st century with fewer species • But the amount of change depends on our actions now and in the next decades to protect opportunities for future generations • Sustainable development seeks new solutions via international cooperation, renewable resources, and market mechanisms • A good environment and a good economy can go hand-in-hand • But global poverty is still the largest “environmental” problem, and it demands our urgent attention

44. Role for AEESP in Sustainability • Revise/revamp our curricula to add more sustainability science and engineering (mostly we are already equipped in the fundamentals, but we need greater appreciation for a systems viewpoint, life cycle engineering, social science, culture, partnerships, and interdisciplinary teams) • Show Leadership -- raise the level of awareness among our profession and constituencies; show that we are concerned and can contribute (World Summit on Sustainable Development) • Water, air, and wastewater engineering are critical infrastructure needs of the developing world with which we can help (doing good and doing well)

45. Old View: $ Bottom Line $ Capital $ Assets Downsizing Exclusive Shareholders Growth Deregulation New View: Triple Bottom Line Social and Natural Capital Intellectual& Borrow Assets Innovation Inclusive Stakeholders Sustainability Reregulation Sustainable Economics

46. Product Life Cycle Analysis Mass Balances, Risk Assessment Energy Audits Pollution Prevention Program Reduce Contamination Sources Recycle Remanufacture Recovery Down-cycle Change Product or Packaging Reuse Sell Control Sources Change Process Technology Change Operations Substitute Materials

47. News that give hope • Progress in public health and reduction in infant mortality • More efficient use of energy • Increase in global per capita income • Global democratization and education • Global treaties (Montreal, Rio, Kyoto) • Market forces (prices reflecting ecological truth; CO2 emission credits and trading) • Multinational companies becoming greener • Protection and de-listing of endangered species

48. Rapid development Little pollution control wastewater treatment Air pollution control Total Solid & hazardous wastes Emissions Industrial Per Year Ecology 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year

49. Per capita CO2 Emissions (Energy use - hydrocarbons, coal)

50. Toxic Release Inventory • Who wants to be first on the list of polluters? • Shame is a powerful incentive to reduce emissions