PACS 4500

1. PACS 4500 Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies Section 002 Heidi Burgess Jan 30, 2014

2. Welcome/Introduction: • Jim Ellickson-Brown • State Dept. “Diplomat in Residence” for the Rocky Mountain Southwest region • Contact: • Email:  Ellickson-BrownJR@state.gov • Web:  http://careers.state.gov

3. Reminders: • Last call for vouchers!!! • Discussion about due dates: Suggested changes! • Project Proposals due Monday @3:30 pm in the D2L Dropbox • RRs due Wed@3:30 pm • Questions?

4. Questions for Questions Mr. Ellickson-Brown?

5. Attractors So what creates attractors? Coleman’s 57 “essences” Whacky? Yes! Grounded? Yes! Useful? Yes!

6. Of those 57 “essences” • Do they reinforce each other? • Often • Called a Positive feedback systems (and it is usually harmful!!) • (escalation, deepens the hole) • The more coherence, the stronger the attractor. • The stronger the attractor, the more intractable the conflict.

7. Of those 57 “essences” • Do they counter each other? • Sometimes • Creates a negative (de-escalating/constructive system) • Is Tunisia an example?

8. But do we really need to measure 57 factors? • An alternative (complimentary?) approach (Guy’s and mine) • 4 core factors • 10+ “traps” or overlays

9. Overlay / Core Issues Core Issues • Distributional • Moral • Status • Need: Identity and Security

10. Overlay / Core Issues Overlays • Miscommunication Goals/Actions • Framing • Factual Disagreements • Procedural Unfairness • Escalation / Polarization • Posterity Trap • Tragedy of the Commons • Cultural Lag • Paramedic Sydrome Traps

11. What I like best about Coleman: • Graphical Conflict Mapping

12. 2nd Mapping Exercise • Mapping the “inequality” problem

13. The Multifaceted Inequality Problem http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/17/opinion/brooks-the-inequality-problem.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

14. Problems at the Top

15. The Undeserving Rich http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/20/opinion/krugman-the-undeserving-rich.html

16. Brooks Response http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/279-82/21578-david-brooks-utter-ignorance-about-inequality

17. Money Addiction http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/01/19/opinion/sunday/for-the-love-of-money.html?from=opinion

18. Rationalizing Boundless Greed “Makers” vs. “Takers”

19. Super Star Effect

20. Natural Selection Charles Darwin / Herbert Spencer

21. The Charles Murray Effect The many reinforcing advantages of the elites and semi-elites

22. Problems at the Bottom

23. Long Term Employment Trends http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_16/b4224007222337.htm

24. Scarcity and Thinking http://www.amazon.com/Scarcity-Having-Little-Means-Much/dp/0805092641

25. Low Educational Expectations http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/01/14/arne-duncan-school-expectations-are-too-low-in-the-united-states

26. Marriage and Poverty http://www.heritage.org/childpoverty/united-statesthe through our site and I will

27. Family Problems http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/01/23/opinion/kristof-modern-family-matters.html?from=opinion

28. Criminal Behavior

29. Systemic Problems

30. The Fear Economy http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/12/27/opinion/krugman-the-fear-economy.html Reserve Army of the Unemployed

31. Zero-Sum Society

32. Matthew’s Law “To whomsoever hath, to him shall be given” The Concentration of Wealth/Power Kenneth Boulding A.K.A The Golden Rule – “He who has the gold makes the rules.” Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely. Lord Acton

33. Tax / Subsidy Structure http://readersupportednews.org/opinion2/279-82/21352-the-year-of-the-great-redistribution

34. Economic Stress / Lack of Compassion http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/11/opinion/does-rising-inequality-make-us-hardhearted.html?ref=thomasbedsall

35. The Lance Armstrong Effect In a highly competitive environment, cheating (exploitation of customers, employees, and the environment) is the tie-breaker. The “win” goes to the best cheater. For capitalism to work, government must “level the playing field” by preventing cheating.

36. Robots http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2012/12/ff-robots-will-take-our-jobs/all/

37. Under Performing Schools

38. Incarceration Rates http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prison

39. Summary of the Inequality Problem • Problems at the Top • Assortative Mating • The Super Star Effect • Money Addiction/Boundless Greed • Others? • Problems the Bottom • Single Parenting • Criminal Behavior • Unemployment History • Low Educational Expectations • Scarcity-Afflicted Thinking • Others? • Systemic Problems • Automation • Reserve Army of the Unemployed • Zero-Some Mentality • Matthew’s Law • Stress Limits Compassion • Under-Performing Schools • Lance Armstrong Effect • Prison Industrial Complex • Others

40. Reasons for Optimism

41. Bad Year for Wall Street Lobbiests http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116064/2013-financial-reform-went-way-better-anyone-expected

42. Taxing the Rich http://m.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/01/in-2013-the-top-1-will-pay-their-highest-total-tax-rate-since-1979/266764/

43. Teddy Roosevelt

44. Distributional Impact Statements http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/4224645?uid=3739568&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256&sid=21102175615713

45. Poor Peoples Economies http://www.lyft.me/him https://www.airbnb.com/‎ https://www.vayable.com/‎

46. Micro-Finance

47. Social Entrepreneurs

48. Ending Extreme Poverty http://annualletter.gatesfoundation.org/

49. A Real “Occupy Wall Street” Really Representing the 99%

50. Your Job: • Make a second map!! But • Start with the 5-6 MOST IMPORTANT factors in my summary list. • Figure out how THEY relate to each other. • Draw arrows in loops, not double-headed lines. • Add things in one at a time from there.