Educational Attainment and Productivity Goals

1. Educational Attainment and Productivity Goals How many more degrees and how to get there October 9, 2012 Strategic Directions Committee

2. Summary of presentation • Educational attainment – the percentage of the population with a degree or credential • UNC role in meeting state attainment goals • The right mix of degree areas and levels • Measuring educational quality

3. Goal-setting approaches • Motivated by workforce demand (e.g., Georgetown Center for Education and the Workforce) • Motivated by competitiveness nationally and internationally (e.g., Aim for high-performing states, Lumina Foundation)

4. How much education does North Carolina need? * Note: For all but the top GDP states and the Oregon ratios, the bachelor’s degree attainment levels shown above are based on the current share of bachelor’s degrees in the broader undergraduate attainment distribution.

5. How do we reconcile different projections? • Projections from the same data suggest that from 1/3 to 2/3 of projected growth in jobs will require a postsecondary education. • It depends on whether we expect changes in educational requirements over time. • It also depends on whether the educational requirements currently assumed for occupations are what employers demand now. • Industry mix based on past patterns or projected future trends. • Projections do not assume any innovation – i.e., nascent, emerging industries are not part of the equation. • Sole proprietors / self-employed entrepreneurs are often excluded from data (typically derived from unemployment insurance filings).

6. How do BLS data compare to reality nationally? Source: BLS, CPS, ACS, 2010

7. Don’t Overlook Graduate Education • Investing in graduate education isn’t a particularly efficient strategy for moving the needle on attainment. • Graduate education is an important investment in economic development (high-wage, high-skilled jobs, technological innovation).

8. States with the most productive economies tend to have highly educated populations

9. Interactive Model [DEMONSTRATE MODEL] • Example – State goal: Top 5 most educated states = 61.5% • State would increase annual undergraduate output by 5.2% (5,356 additional graduates) • UNC share: Increase bachelor’s degrees by 2,400 degrees annually • Assumptions: same public-private split; same bachelor’s-associate distribution; same migration patterns • Based on projected future degree growth, UNC can expect to meet perhaps 40% of this goal without additional actions. • This assumes all other states sit still.

10. With which students does UNC have an opportunity to move the needle? • Increasing the flow into the system: • High schools (first-time students) • Dual enrollment (e.g., early college high schools) • Other postsecondary institutions (transfers) • Stop-outs/non-completers • Military • Out-of-state recruitment • Closing gaps in college-going rates for low-income and underrepresented students • Patching the leaks: • Graduation rates • Completion gaps for underrepresented students

11. What are the policy levers? • K12 projections and higher admission standards suggest slow-down of growth for first-time students. • And demographics of that growth are important. • Community college enrollments growing. Many do not complete associate degree, and many degree recipients do not transfer. • Potential to serve past non-completers and growing military and veteran populations. • A 1-point rise in graduation rates will generate 500+ additional bachelor’s degrees annually.

12. Four, Five, & Six Year Graduation Rates at Public Four Year Institutions Source: NCES, IPEDS 2010 Graduation Rate File; gr2010 Final Release Data File. Note: Figures aggregated for Postsecondary Title IV Degree-Granting Institutions in the 50 States and District of Columbia.

13. Efficiency and effectiveness of degree production

14. Efficiency improvements can also increase capacity and raise gains from educational attainment. • Time to degree / semesters enrolled • Hours to degree • Summer school access

15. Regardless of the attainment target, what is the right mix of degrees? How to determine the mix of programs? • Needs of existing economy; what employers value now • Needs of future economy; what business sees on the horizon Mix of what? • Program areas / subject matter • Skill sets

16. Employers Value Skills of Many Majors Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Sample) STEM Health Business and Communications $ Psychology and Social Sciences Liberal Arts Education Median Annual Wages by General Field of Study and Age (Includes Only Bachelor’s Degree Holders, Not Holders of Graduate/ Professional Degrees) Age

17. Responding to demographics is key to meeting attainment and workforce goals • Fastest growing portion of the population is the least educated • Gaps persist in student success for minority students in UNC • Transfer articulation and success is important strategic focus

18. North Carolina Student Pipeline by Race, 2010 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Dropout and Completion Data File" , 2008-09 v.1a NCES, IPEDS Fall 2010 Enrollment File; ef2010a Final Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2010-11 Completions File; c2011_a Early Release Data File Downloaded 03-29-12.

19. Focusing on educational quality • Quality measures: • Workforce outcomes • Licensure pass rates • Graduate school access • Other approaches to measuring quality