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Can we use expectation-expectation to manage uncertainty?

Can we use expectation-expectation to manage uncertainty?. Peter Dittrich Bio Systems Analysis Group FSU Jena http://www.minet.uni-jena.de/csb. Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena. Jena Centre for Bioinformatics. Overview. What is Expectation-Expectation? Evidences social systems theory

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Can we use expectation-expectation to manage uncertainty?

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  1. Can we use expectation-expectation to manage uncertainty? Peter Dittrich Bio Systems Analysis Group FSU Jena http://www.minet.uni-jena.de/csb Friedrich-Schiller-UniversitätJena Jena Centre for Bioinformatics

  2. Overview • What is Expectation-Expectation? • Evidences • social systems theory • simulation study • Potential Applications Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  3. I. What is expectation-expectation second-order expectation estimate of what the other expects from me

  4. Oberservation => Predictors => Expectations Environment Cause Event Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  5. Hypothesis / Suggestion Use expectation-expectation (second-ordered observation) in a controller for multi-agent systems. E.g., in order to achieve global coherence or ordered robust behavior. Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  6. II. Evidences social systems theory Parsons, Luhmann, et al.

  7. Double-Contingency Problem ? cf. N. Luhmann, Soziale Systeme, 1984 Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  8. II. Evidences social systems theory simulation study

  9. ? ? Agent B Choice: set of potential symbols 1 2 3 Dittrich, P./T. Kron/W. Banzhaf (2003): On the Scalability of Social Order – Modeling the Problem of Double and Multi Contingency Following Luhmann. In: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS), 6(1). Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  10. ? ? Agent B • contingent situation • uncertainty • double contingency problem Choice: set of potential symbols 1 2 3 Dittrich, P./T. Kron/W. Banzhaf (2003): On the Scalability of Social Order – Modeling the Problem of Double and Multi Contingency Following Luhmann. In: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS), 6(1). Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  11. Agent have two Motivations: • Expectation-expectation (EE): • Try to meet expectation of the other agent. • Expectation-certainty (EC): • Try to act such that the future becomes predictable Dittrich, P./T. Kron/W. Banzhaf (2003): On the Scalability of Social Order – Modeling the Problem of Double and Multi Contingency Following Luhmann. In: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS), 6(1). Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  12. Agent A 1 2 Agent B Ego-Memory Ego-Memory Alter-Memory Alter-Memory Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  13. Systems-Level Uncertainty(use Ego-Memory, no observers) expectation-expectation only Uncertainty expectation-certainy only Dittrich, P./T. Kron/W. Banzhaf (2003): On the Scalability of Social Order – Modeling the Problem of Double and Multi Contingency Following Luhmann. In: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS), 6(1). Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  14. Systems-Level Uncertainty(Use Alter-Memory, no observers) expectation-expectation only expectation-certainy only Uncertainty Dittrich, P./T. Kron/W. Banzhaf (2003): On the Scalability of Social Order – Modeling the Problem of Double and Multi Contingency Following Luhmann. In: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS), 6(1). Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  15. Systems-Level Uncertainty(Use Alter-Memory, with observers) expectation-expectation only Uncertainty expectation-certainy only Dittrich, P./T. Kron/W. Banzhaf (2003): On the Scalability of Social Order – Modeling the Problem of Double and Multi Contingency Following Luhmann. In: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS), 6(1). Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  16. From an Actor Oriented View to a Systems Level View 1 1 2 1 80 % A1 2 2 2 Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  17. A „Communication System“ Dittrich, P./T. Kron/W. Banzhaf (2003): On the Scalability of Social Order – Modeling the Problem of Double and Multi Contingency Following Luhmann. In: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS), 6(1). Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  18. Communication System where EE is Based on Alter-Memory 2 3 Dittrich, P./T. Kron/W. Banzhaf (2003): On the Scalability of Social Order – Modeling the Problem of Double and Multi Contingency Following Luhmann. In: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS), 6(1). Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  19. Figure 11. Example of an activity system that has emerged in a simulation experiment with 10 agents, 10 possible activities, Alter-memory used for EE calculation, and no observers. A node represents an activity. The sub-set of nodes {1, 5, 6} can be interpreted as an autopoietic (sub-)system. Parameters: y = 2, N = 10, a= 0.0, rlearn = 0.2, rforget = 0.001, M = 10. No observers. Alter- memory used for EE calculation. Edges with weights smaller than r = 10% have been omitted for clarity. The corresponding single run is shown in the Appendix Dittrich, P./T. Kron/W. Banzhaf (2003): On the Scalability of Social Order – Modeling the Problem of Double and Multi Contingency Following Luhmann. In: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS), 6(1). Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  20. A Chemical Organization Dittrich, P./L. Winter (2007): A Toy-Model of the Political System. Advances in Complex Systems, 11(4), 609-627, 2008 Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  21. The Lattice of Organizations of the Model tool / computer Dittrich, P./L. Winter (2007): A Toy-Model of the Political System. Advances in Complex Systems, 11(4), 609-627, 2008 Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  22. III. Potential Applications

  23. How to apply? • integrate utility and expectation-expectation • Example: • assume: utility function for action selection • often two good actions with similar utility (or even the same utility with respect to noise) • in that case: chose the action that is most like expected by Alter. Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  24. Why not using a homo-economicus (utility maximization) model? Dittrich, P./T. Kron (2002): Complex Reflexive Agents as Models of Social Actors. In: Proc. of the SICE Workshop on Artificial Society/Organization/Economy, 25th Meeting of System Engineering. Tokyo, Japan: 79-88. Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  25. Systems • Trading • Peer-to-peer • Agent-agent • Agent-human • Social networks • Virtual worlds Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  26. Note • Here, we solely focused on coherence. • There are situations where agents may want exactly the opposite: e.g., being different. This leads to other interesting phenomena, like diversification • cf. Seceder Model: Dittrich, P, F. Liljeros, A. Soulier, and W. Banzhaf (2000). Spontaneous Group Formation in the Seceder Model, Phys. Rev. Lett., 84(14), 3205-3208, 2000 Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  27. Conclusion • Expectation-expectation seems to help in coping with uncertainty in “social” systems. • Simulation studies showed that it is crucialhow expectation-expectation is generated. • Does it also help managing uncertainty in socio-technological systems? • How should expectation-expectation influence the agent’s behavior? Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  28. Acknowledgement RWTH Aachen: • Lars Winter • Thomas Kron University of Hagen: • Uwe Schimank University of New Foundland • Wolfgang Banzhaf Funding: DFG Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

  29. References • Dittrich, P./L. Winter (2008): A Toy-Model of the Political System. Advances in Complex Systems, 11(4), 609-627, 2008http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0219525908001878 • Dittrich, P./T. Kron/W. Banzhaf (2003): On the Scalability of Social Order – Modeling the Problem of Double and Multi Contingency Following Luhmann. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS), 6(1), 2003http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/6/1/3.html • Dittrich, P, F. Liljeros, A. Soulier, and W. Banzhaf (2000). Spontaneous Group Formation in the Seceder Model, Phys. Rev. Lett., 84(14), 3205-3208, 2000 http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.84.3205 Peter Dittrich - FSU & JCB Jena

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