Meteo 415 Juneau, Alaska & Memphis Tennessee

1. Meteo 415 Juneau, Alaska & Memphis Tennessee Contest 3 November 15and November 16, 2011

2. Juneau, Alaska Juneau is 3,255 sq miles, about 50% larger than the size of Delaware. Juneau is the only capital in the United States that is only accessible by boat or plane.

3. Juneau, Alaska FAA Identifier: JNU Lat/Long: 58.3566° N/ -134.5640°W Elevation: 7 meters (23 feet) Location of Airport: 7 miles NW of City of Juneau

4. Surface Map – 12z 11/16

5. Visibility Image

6. Observations PAJN 151753Z 00000KT 10SM FEW039 SCT055 BKN100 M03/M03 A2980 AO2 SLP091 4/009 933007 60000 T10331033 10000 21039 51017 PAJN 151853Z 08004KT 10SM FEW035 SCT050 BKN110 OVC140 M02/M03 A2981 AO2 SLP096 BINOVC T10221028 METAR PAJN 151953Z 07006KT 10SM FEW030 BKN043 OVC075 M01/M02 A2982 AO2 SLP097 PRESENT WX VCSH S-SW T10061022 PNO PAJN 152053Z 00000KT 2 1/2SM R26/4500VP6000FT -SN BR FEW017 BKN026 OVC033 M01/M03 A2984 AO2 TWR VIS 3 SNB08 SLP104 VIS W-N 1 3/4 P0000 60000 T10061028 53014 PAJN 152111Z 06004KT 3SM R26/6000VP6000FT -SN BR FEW015 SCT028 OVC090 M01/M02 A2984 AO2 SFC VIS 4 BINOVC P0000 PAJN 152153Z 09004KT 9SM -SN FEW006 BKN037 OVC070M01/M02 A2985 AO2 SLP107 THN SPTS IOVC P0000T10061022 PAJN 152253Z 09009KT 10SM -SN FEW016 BKN037 OVC060 00/M02 A2986 AO2 SNE14B44 SLP111 THN SPTS IOVC PCPN VRY LGT P0000T00001017 PAJN 152353Z 09007KT 10SM -SN FEW011 BKN037 OVC04500/M02 A2986 AO2 SLP110 PCPN VRY LGT 4/009 P0000 60000 T00001017 10000 21039 50006 PAJN 160053Z 09007KT 10SM -SN FEW011 SCT034 OVC04500/M02 A2985 AO2 SLP106 PCPN VRY LGT P0000T00001017 PAJN 160153Z 07010KT 8SM -SN OVC045 00/M02 A2984 AO2 SNE14B35 SLP103 P0000T00001017 PAJN 160228Z 09010KT 2SM -SN BR OVC030 00/M01 A2983 AO2P0001 PAJN 160253Z 10009G16KT 2SM -SN BR OVC01700/M01 A2981 AO2 SLP095 P0002 60002 T00001011 58015

7. Observations PAJN 160353Z 08014G19KT 2SM -SN BROVC01501/M01 A2979 AO2 SLP088 P0002T00061006 SPECI PAJN 160436Z 11016G22KT 6SM -SN BR OVC02001/00 A2977 AO2 P0002 PAJN 160453Z 12023G29KT 4SM -SN BR OVC02001/00 A2977 AO2 PK WND 12029/0452SLP081 P0002T00060000 PAJN 160553Z 12022G32KT 5SM -SNRA BR OVC027 01/00 A2974 AO2 PK WND 12032/0548 RAB0459E28B53 SLP071 4/008 P0002 60008 T00110000 10011 21006 58024 METAR PAJN 160653Z 12026G37KT 5SM -SNRA BROVC020 01/00 A2971 AO2 PK WND 11037/0646SLP060 P0001 T00110000 PAJN 160753Z 11027G32KT 6SM -RA BR OVC01801/00 A2967 AO2 PK WND 12035/0706 SNE52 SLP047 P0002 T00110000 PAJN 160853Z 12020G27KT 7SM -SNRA OVC02001/00 A2963 AO2 PK WND 12029/0816 RAE01B17SNB01 SLP032 P0003 60006T00110000 400171039 58039 PAJN 160953Z 12022G31KT 10SM -SNRA OVC030 01/00 A2958 AO2 PK WND 13031/0947 SNE33B53 SLP017 P0000 T00110000 PAJN 161035Z 12023G29KT 5SM -SN BR OVC022 01/00 A2956 AO2 PK WND 13030/1007 RAE07 P0000 PAJN 161053Z 12023G28KT 6SM -SN BR FEW007 OVC022 01/00 A2956 AO2 PK WND 13030/1007 RAE07 SLP009 P0001 T00060000 PAJN 161153Z 11018KT 5SM -SN BR FEW005 OVC02001/00 A2952 AO2 PK WND 12027/1126 RAB26E35 SLP997 4/008 70014T00060000 10017 20006 56035

8. Verifications

9. Comparing Forecasts-Survey

10. Comparing Forecasts-Career

11. Survey Standings

12. Career Path Standings

13. Up Close and Personal – bac297

14. Lessons Learned • In mountainous regions, always be aware of how the wind could channel itself in the valleys. For Juneau, SE winds brought higher speeds through the valley and to the airport. • Both NAM MOS and GFS had 30% or 40% for each temperature time period-good guidance to follow for the Alaska forecasts. • Timing of a front/disturbance is key! The slower moving low off the coast of Alaska kept most of the snow and precipitation out of our period.

15. Memphis, Tennessee Welcome to Elvis country…..

16. Memphis, Tennessee …and Duck Country? The Peabody Hotel in Memphis has a daily duck parade! http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=Z3JAQLEUP7c&vq=small#t=13

17. Memphis, Tennessee FAA ID: KMEM Lat/Long: 35°02′33″N 089°58′36″W Elevation: 104 meters (347 ft) Location from City: 3 miles SE from downtown Memphis.

18. Synoptic Pattern-Water Vapor

19. Surface Map – 9z on 11/16

20. Radar

21. Observations KMEM 151754Z 06009KT 1/2SM-RA BR FEW003 SCT013 OVC02017/16 A2980 AO2 SFC VIS 6 RAB1658 CIG 003 RWY27 SLP090 P000060005 T01670156 10189 20156 58014 KMEM 151813Z 05007KT 6SM BR OVC02017/16 A2980 AO2 RAE02 P0000 KMEM 151824Z 03007KT 6SM -RA BR FEW004 OVC02017/15 A2980 AO2 RAE02B18 P0000 KMEM 151836Z 03005KT 6SM -RA BR BKN004OVC02017/15 A2980 AO2 RAE02B18 P0001 KMEM 151854Z 01007KT 6SM RABR OVC00416/15 A2980 AO2 RAE02B18 SLP088 P0004T01610150 KMEM 151954Z 04005KT 10SM BKN004OVC01517/15 A2980 AO2 RAE36 SLP087 P0003T01670150 KMEM 152031Z 03009KT 10SM OVC00616/14 A2981 AO2 KMEM 152054Z 05007KT 030V110 10SM BKN006OVC019 17/15 A2980 AO2 SLP088 60007 T01670150 55002 KMEM 152104Z 06010KT 10SM FEW006OVC019 17/15 A2980 AO2 KMEM 152154Z 13007KT 10SM OVC01517/15 A2980 AO2 SLP089 T01720150 KMEM 152215Z 11007KT 10SM SCT015 BKN040 OVC065 17/15 A2980 AO2 KMEM 152231Z 08005KT 10SM BKN019BKN033 OVC065 17/15 A2981 AO2 KMEM 152254Z 08003KT 10SM OVC021 17/15 A2981 AO2 SLP091 T01720150 KMEM 152323Z 12007KT 10SM -RA FEW009 BKN025 OVC075 17/15 A2979 AO2 RAB09 P0002 KMEM 152344Z 12005KT 10SM FEW009 SCT029 OVC075 17/15 A2980 AO2 RAB09E31 P0002 KMEM 152354Z 12005KT 10SM FEW009 SCT050 OVC095 17/15 A2980 AO2 RAB09E31 SLP088 P000260009 T01720150 10178 20161 58001

22. Observations KMEM 160054Z 13004KT 10SM SCT044 SCT055 BKN070 17/15 A2980 AO2 SLP087 T01720150 KMEM 160154Z 05003KT 10SM OVC050 17/15 A2979 AO2 SLP085 T01670150 KMEM 160254Z 11005KT 10SM BKN035 BKN050 OVC075 17/15 A2978 AO2 SLP081 T01720150 58007 KMEM 160354Z 00000KT 10SM FEW033 BKN060 OVC075 18/16 A2977 AO2 SLP078 T01780156 KMEM 160454Z 00000KT 10SM FEW065 OVC140 18/16 A2975 AO2 SLP072 T01780156 KMEM 160554Z 32012KT 10SM SCT006 SCT060 BKN075 17/16 A2979 AO2 SLP086 T01670156 10183 20167 402220156 53005 KMEM 160602Z 32009KT 8SM BKN006BKN060 OVC075 17/16 A2979 AO2 KMEM 160619Z 00000KT 8SM SCT006 SCT013 BKN021 17/16 A2978 AO2 CIG 013 RWY27 KMEM 160654Z 07003KT 6SM -RA BR BKN019BKN065 OVC120 17/16 A2977 AO2 RAB45 SLP078 P0000T01720156 KMEM 160715Z 14003KT 5SM -RA BR SCT022 BKN065 OVC095 17/16 A2976 AO2 CIG 050 RWY27 P0000 KMEM 160720Z 13003KT 5SM -RA BR SCT020 BKN025 OVC065 17/16 A2976 AO2 P0001 KMEM 160737Z 00000KT 4SM TSRABR BKN017BKN025 OVC039CB 17/16 A2977 AO2 TSB37 OCNL LTGIC W TS W MOV NE P0005 KMEM 160748Z 35006KT 4SM TSRABR SCT017 OVC044CB 17/16 A2977 AO2 TSB37 OCNL LTGIC WTS W MOV NE P0009 KMEM 160754Z 33007KT 4SM TSRABR SCT017 OVC044CB 17/16 A2977 AO2 TSB37 SLP079 OCNL LTGIC W TS W MOV NE P0010T01670156 KMEM 160811Z 35004KT 2 1/2SM +TSRABR FEW005 BKN020OVC044CB 17/16 A2977 AO2 OCNL LTGIC NETS NE MOV NE P0010 KMEM 160832Z 36007KT 2SM+RABR SCT003 BKN022 OVC042 17/16 A2976 AO2 TSE32 OCNL LTGIC DSNT NECB DSNT NE P0021 KMEM 160835Z 01006KT 2SM+RABR BKN003BKN020OVC035 17/16 A2976 AO2 TSE32 OCNL LTGIC DSNT NE CB DSNT NE P0023

23. Observations KMEM 160840Z 01004KT 2SM+TSRABR BKN003BKN025 OVC035CB 17/16 A2976 AO2 TSE32B40 OCNL LTGIC NE TS NE MOV NE P0025 KMEM 160851Z 36009KT 3SM TSRABR BKN003OVC032CB 17/16 A2974 AO2 TSE32B40 OCNL LTGIC NE TS NEMOV NE P0028 KMEM 160854Z 35008KT 3SM +TSRABR BKN004OVC032CB 17/16 A2974 AO2 TSE32B40 SLP070 OCNL LTGIC NETS NE MOV NE P002960039 T01670156 58008 KMEM 160908Z 35014G18KT 3SM -RA BR OVC00417/15 A2976 AO2 TSE08 P0002 KMEM 160920Z 20005KT 2SMR36L/4000VP6000FT +RABR OVC00416/15 A2980 AO2 TSE08 PRESRR P0008 KMEM 160922Z 19006KT 1SMR36L/4000VP6000FT +RABR OVC00416/15 A2979 AO2 TSE08 P0009 KMEM 160933Z 08005KT 2SM+RABR BKN006BKN022 OVC055 16/15 A2978 AO2 TSE08 P0035 KMEM 160927Z VRB04KT 1SMR36L/4000VP6000FT +RABR BKN006OVC01216/16 A2979 AO2 TSE08 P0028 KMEM 160944Z 03012G15KT 3SM +RABR SCT006 BKN020OVC055 16/15 A2978 AO2 TSE08 P0040 KMEM 160952Z 04010KT 3SM +RABR SCT009 BKN031 OVC055 16/14 A2978 AO2 TSE08 P0046 KMEM 160954Z 04011KT 3SM +RA BR SCT009 BKN031 OVC055 16/14 A2978 AO2 TSE08 SLP081 P0047T01610144 KMEM 161000Z 05009KT 030V100 3SM +RABR SCT006 BKN012OVC055 16/14 A2978 AO2 P0004 KMEM 161008Z VRB06KT 3SM +RABR BKN008BKN016OVC031 16/14 A2979 AO2 P0008 KMEM 161023Z 05010G16KT 2 1/2SM +RABR BKN008OVC01516/14 A2979 AO2 P0018 KMEM 161054Z 01014KT 2 1/2SM RABR BKN006OVC045 15/14 A2979 AO2 SLP087 P0034T01500139 KMEM 161115Z 02014KT 3SM +RABR BKN006BKN013OVC036 15/14 A2980 AO2 P0009 KMEM 161154Z 03012G20KT 5SM RABR BKN008BKN012OVC041 15/13 A2979 AO2 SLP087 P001260132 70146T01500133 10172 20150 51017

24. Verifications

25. Comparing….

26. Standings-Career Path

27. Up Close and Personal – jvg5056

28. Lessons Learned • Higher CAPE values mean that thunderstorms and lightning are likely. Be sure to check the SPC site for the Convective Outlook Product (see text) and mesoanalysis. • Models grossly over predicted the Max temperature. Again, be wary of the timing of frontal passages. • When filling in your Events forecast, be sure to check what you put in your Precipitation Forecast. Many of us had lower percentages in the “Liquid>=.75” than what we had in the Precipitation categories.