A Professional Prospectus

1. A Professional Prospectus Nick Nauslar M.S. Student/Research Assistant Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Nevada, Reno & Desert Research Institute

2. Growing Up • Lived in 9 cities in my 23+ years (Omaha, Detroit, Des Moines, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, south Texas, Norman, and Reno) • Big sports fan (Cubs, Broncos, Bulls, Red Wings, OU, and Michigan) • Love to play sports, be outdoors, and travel

3. Interest in Weather • Get bored easily, like things that keep changing • Enjoy predicting/forecasting • Godfather and Uncle struck by lightning playing football in college • You can see it, feel it, and experience it everyday

5. Education • Graduated in 2004 from Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas • Graduated in 2008 from University of Oklahoma, B.S. in Meteorology • Currently attending University of Nevada, Reno for M.S. in Atmospheric Science

6. Training and Experience (Non-weather related) • Worked as a maintenance man at my dad’s nursing home for 2 summers • Worked at special events for Capital Distributing in Oklahoma City for 3 years during college • Learned a lot about hard work and interpersonal communication at both jobs

8. Training and Experience • Worked from 2/06 to 8/08 at the Oklahoma Climatological Survey as a Outreach Student Assistant • Coordinated logistics for classes • Prepared and created lecture materials for classes (case studies, cheat sheets, etc.) • Taught classes/lessons

9. Training and Experience • Worked as a weather intern at KOCO-5 in Oklahoma City summer of 2007. • Prepared on-air graphics, performed research, contributed to weather blog, and during severe weather provided support and analysis for on-air meteorologist • Earned valuable experience with green screen practice and overall sense of broadcast meteorology

10. Training and Experience • On-air meteorologist every Wednesday and Friday for college TV station • Daily 30 minute news program broadcasted statewide • Did own graphics and forecasting • Became more comfortable speaking in front of people and accountability for forecasts

11. Training and Experience • Storm Chasing • Saw several tornadoes and went out about a dozen times the 4 years at OU • Really see equations and classroom material at work • Makes studying easier and learn a lot

12. Training and Experience • Work for Program for Climate, Ecosystem, and Fire Applications (CEFA) • Researching climate indices and fire relationships • Implementing FORTRAN, GIS, and Statistica to accomplish this task

13. Why DRI? • Wanted somewhere with fire, climate, and complex terrain emphasis • Did own research and aided by mentors back at OU • Found Dr. Tim Brown and asked my mentors about him and the program

15. Dr. Tim Brown • Ph.D., Climatology, University of Colorado, Boulder
M.S., Climatology, University of Colorado, Boulder
B.S., Astronomy-Physics, University of Illinois (Sangamon State) Springfield, IL • Director of Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) and CEFA • Research in applied climate and meteorology

17. Research Topic • Not confirmed but the scope is narrowing • Will involve climate and fires • One possible topic that has been discussed: Investigating dry lightning events and fire starts with some climatology involved • Investigating dry lightning event in N. California June 20-21 • Be funded by grants obtained by CEFA

18. CEFA Funding Agencies • Bureau of Land Management • U.S. Forest Service • National Park Service • U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service • California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection • New York State Department of Environmental Conservation • New Hampshire Division of Forests and Lands • North Carolina Division of Forest Resources • California Air Resources Board • San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District • Department of Defense • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration • Joint Fire Sciences Program • Australia’s Bushfire CRC • Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment • Aldo Leopold Institute • Aerospace Corporation 

20. Why Investigate? • Costs: ~$500 million, 80,000+fires burning 3.5 million acres • Loss of life and property • Better prediction and information can lead to more efficient and productive fire management

22. Research Topic • High based convection is the primary source for dry lightning events • Innocuous or less than strong/severe data can lead to these events which can be devastating • Traditional thunderstorm indices not as effective in high based convection

23. Blowup Video • http://www.meted.ucar.edu/fire/s591/firesci/navmenu.htm

25. Lightning & Wildfires • Lightning Bust- This term denotes a lightning outbreak that is potent enough to produce numerous fire starts • Dry Lightning- T-storm that produces rain amounts less than 0.1 in (2.5 mm). Sfc RH= 12-20%. Lightning ignition can be very efficient if surface fuels are sufficiently dry • Wet/Dry Lightning- Precipitation amounts range between 0.1-0.2 in. (2.5-5 mm) beneath the main rain core and less than 0.1 in. outside the core. Sfc RH= 20-29%. Lightning ignition is most efficient in the peripheral areas

27. Research Topic • Some offices use modified indices • A researched and practical index for high based thunderstorms/dry lightning events would help • Possible product of my research topic

29. Past, Present, and Future Research • Steven J. McKay, Miriam L. Rorig and Sue A. Ferguson, US Forest Service • Paul Werth, National Interagency Fire Center • Gregory J. Tripoli and William R. Cotton, Colorado State University

30. “Characteristics of Lightning and Wildland Fire Ignition in the Pacific Northwest” • Dewpoint depression at 85 kPa and temperature difference between 85 and 50 kPa was able to classify correctly between 56% and 80% of the convective days as dry or wet • Distinctly different synoptic patterns for ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ convection days

31. “The 2000 Fire Season: Lightning-Caused Fires” • Mean 85-kPa dewpoint depression at Spokane from 1 May through 20 September was 17.7°C on days when lightning-caused fires occurred and was 12.3°C on days with no lightning-caused fires. • Mean temperature difference between 85 and 50 kPa was 31.3°C on lightning-fire days, as compared with 28.9°C on non-lightning-fire days. • High instability and high dewpoint depression corresponded better with lightning-caused fires than total lightning

32. “Model-Generated Predictions of Dry Thunderstorm Potential” • Based on these upper-air variables, an algorithm was developed to estimate the potential of dry lightning • Predictions generated from real time forecasts from MM5 during summers of 2004 and 2005 for western US • 240 lightning-caused fires: 40% occurred where the probability of dry lightning was predicted to be equal to or greater than 90% and 58% occurred where the probability was 75% or greater

33. Gregory J. Tripoli and William R. Cotton, Colorado State University • Several papers on mountain circulations • Including diurnal wind structure, mountain-plain circulation, and terrain induced/aided convection • Good background on complex terrain thermodynamics and atmospheric dynamics

34. Unique Research? • Relationship between dry lightning, climate, and fires still a very open topic/subject • Some sort of dry lightning, fire, and climate relationship or dry thunderstorm index would be helpful and unique

35. Post Graduate Plans • 2 Paths: Operational Forecasting (emphasis in Fire Weather) and Broadcast Meteorology • Operational Forecasting is my first choice and I think it would be the wisest and most fulfilling long term choice

36. Operational Forecasting (NWS) • NWS and Predictive Services would be ideal • NWS offers a wide range of forecasting but one can still specialize to some extent • IMET- Incident Meteorologist • IMETs are NWS forecasters specially trained to work with Incident Management Teams during severe wildfire outbreaks or other disasters requiring onsite weather support

37. Predictive Services • Predictive Services deals with every aspect of fire prediction • Predictive Services located at NICC and GACCs across the country • Meteorologists analyze a variety of weather products and services to provide briefings and outlooks for current and forecasted conditions, and in some cases provide spot weather and smoke forecasts. • Work with fire managers to assess fire danger

38. Broadcast Meteorology • PROS • Enjoyed doing it • Reach a big audience • Can get paid well • CONS • At the mercy of the public/producer/director • Odd hours, lots of moving • Not all about meteorology

39. Preparation • Very goal oriented, work best this way • Learning new tools (FORTRAN, GIS, Statistica, etc.) • Work hard and do a good job on work projects • Track, experience weather every day, ask questions • Read journal articles on topics pertaining to my research topic or that peak my curiosity

40. Preparation • Will be in Grand Junction, CO working for Bureau of Land Management • Real life experience for fire weather • COMET modules • Meeting and talking to people in my field

41. Missing Elements • Tough with budget crisis • More advanced classes in forecasting (dynamics, synoptic, mesoscale) • More support for post grad job search • Some sort of orientation or class that helps with job placement

42. References • National Weather Service (NWS) • National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) • National Incident Information Center (NIIC) • National Weather Center (NWC) • University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) • American Meteorological Society (AMS)