The Icelandic Economic Situation Status Report

1. The IcelandicEconomic SituationStatus Report Published on August 10th 2011

2. Iceland Currency: Krona (ISK) Language: Icelandic Size: 100,000 km2 Capital: Reykjavík Population:320,000

3. Part A The Financial Crisis

4. ... with assets of the “big 3” banks 11 times Iceland’s GDP In 2008, the banking sector had become gigantic ...

5. Then, in October 2008, the “big 3” failed in 3 days 7 October 2008 Landsbanki fails 8 October 2008 Glitnir fails 9 October 2008 Kaupthing fails

6. The financial crisis became a currency crisis ... Exchange rate for one Euro Bank collapse Capital restrictions imposed

7. ... and the capital markets evaporated

8. Political instability followed ... ... and the first left-wing government in over 30 years was elected

9. The failed banks were split into “old” and “new” banks ... ... with Icelandic operations transfered to “new” banks and international operations staying in the “old” banks

10. In addition to the “old” banks, a part of the “new” banks was placed in ownership of creditors Creditors of Landsbanki Íslands hf Creditors of Kaupthing Bank hf Creditors of Glitnir bank hf Landsbanki Íslands hf* Kaupthing bank hf* Glitnir bank hf* S ResolutionCommittee ResolutionCommittee ResolutionCommittee The FSA appointstheresolutioncommittees Arion bank Landsbankinn(formerly NBI) Íslandsbanki 87% 95% 19% 81% 13% 5% IcelandicStateFinancialInvestmentsManagesthestate’s holdings *) Old banks, in resolution process Source: Vilhjalmur Thorsteinsson

11. 24 October 2008 • The Icelandic government reaches an agreement with the IMF on a stabilization program, including a $2.1 bn loan • 11 January 2011 • IMF's Executive Board approves the 4th review of the Economic Recovery Program • 31 August 2011 • Scheduled end of the Economic Recovery Program.A 6th and final review will be published before the end of the program. • 16 April 2010 • IMF's Executive Board approves the 2nd review of the Economic Recovery Program The government also entered an IMF program to reduce the fiscal deficit • 28 October 2009 • IMF's Executive Board approves the 1st review of the Economic Recovery Program • 29 April 2010 • IMF's Executive Board approves the 3rd review of the Economic Recovery Program • 3 June 2011 IMF's Executive Board approves the 5th review of the Economic Recovery Program

12. Part B The Current Landscape

13. Iceland went into a recession ... Real GDP, 2009 prices Net public debt, % of GDP ... and public debt surged

14. However, Iceland’s debt is manageable ... Net public debt (% of GDP) Source: OECD ... and Iceland has not defaulted on any loans

15. Homes struggle with higher unemployment ... Statistics Iceland’s Standard of Life survey ... and a lower living standard

16. Inflation reached 18.6% when the currency collapsed... ...but is now close to historical value

17. Despite the recession, Iceland still remains competitive compared to other economies

18. Part C Recent Developments

19. Debt restructuring of … ... households and corporations is ongoing… … and initiatives by the banks and the government have been put in place to speed up the process

20. Non-performing have decreased… …as performing after restructuring has increased

21. One of the failed banks operated the online savings bank Icesave in the UK and Netherlands The UK and Dutch governments demanded an Icelandic state guarantee to reimburse the deposits

22. An agreement was reached three times I (Jun ‘09 – Sep ’09) II (Sep ‘09 – Mar ’10) (Feb ‘11 – Apr ’11) III

23. After Icesave III was rejected, the matter is now with the EFTA Supervisory Authority (ESA)It is estimated that the UK and Dutch governments will receive approximately 94% of their claim from the estate of the failed Landsbanki Icesave aftermath

24. Iceland’s current credit ratings

25. Since the crisis, the Central Bank has lowered interest rates ... ... and Iceland’s CDS spread is decreasing

26. The Central Bank has introduced a plan to remove capital restrictions in two phases: Phase I Reduction of offshore ISK positions Phase II Removal of onshore ISK controls the plan will be complete at the latest by the end of 2015

27. The IMF fiscal consolidation program has reduced the deficit... ... and a budget surplus is projected in 2014

28. Despite a deep recession ... ... Iceland has recovered relatively quickly

29. Iceland has applied for membership of the EU … … and formal negotiations started in June 2011

30. Other notable events An investigative committee released a report on the causes of the collapse ... Image source: Flickr user fridgeirsson ... and volcanic eruptions in 2010 and 2011 disrupted flights around the world

31. Other notable events In 2011, a three year wage contract was signed for the bulk of Iceland’s workers ... ... and in 2010, a constitutional assembly was elected to reform the constitution

32. Other notable events In May 2011, another volcanic eruption disturbed flights in Iceland, the UK, Scandinavia and Germany… Images from www.visir.is … but the eruption is now over and nobody was harmed. The impact of the eruption on daily lives was minor outside area close to the volcano.

33. Despite the crisis, Iceland’s future is bright An educated workforce Natural resources in abundance Innovative and competitive businesses

34. The full report with further details is available atchamber.is/statusreportA mailing list is available atchamber.is/mailinglist