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Forecasting Eddy Ulysses

Dynamic Positioning Conference. November 15 - 16, 2005. Sensors II. Forecasting Eddy Ulysses. Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting, Inc. (Narragansett, RI). When will the Loop/eddy hit our site?. ?.

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Forecasting Eddy Ulysses

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  1. Dynamic Positioning Conference November 15 - 16, 2005 Sensors II Forecasting Eddy Ulysses Patrice D. Coholan and Steven P. Anderson Horizon Marine, Inc. (Marion, MA) Sergei Frolov Accurate Environmental Forecasting, Inc. (Narragansett, RI)

  2. When will the Loop/eddy hit our site? ? ? W O C Waiting On Currents…. When will it go away? ? How long will it shut us down?

  3. LOOP CURRENT/EDDY MODEL FORECAST Frontal boundary Cyclone Center

  4. EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM COMPONENTS OBSERVATIONAL DATA INITIALIZATION COMPONENT HISTORICAL KNOWLEDGE PHYSICAL PRINCIPLES NOWCAST FORECAST PREDICTION COMPONENT

  5. TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM AUTOMATED DATA ASSIMILATION SATELLITE ALTIMETRY MODEL NOWCAST FORECAST

  6. SATELLITE ALTIMETRY ANALYSIS 15 SEPTEMBER 2004 EDDY WATCH GULF CHART 15 SEPTEMBER 2004 MC GC WR Courtesy of R. Leben CU-CCAR

  7. AEF- HORIZON EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM ALL OBSERVATIONAL DATA AVAILABLE IN REAL TIME INTELLIGENT DATA ANALYSIS INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE INITIAL CONDITIONS (NOWCAST) MODEL FORECAST

  8. OBSERVATIONAL DATA • Drifting buoys • Airborne eXpendable BathyThermographs (AXBTs) • Ocean current surveys • Rig mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) • SST and ocean color • Rig and pilot observations • Altimetry

  9. FAR HORIZON DRIFTING BUOYS • EXPERIENCE • Over 1700 FHDs successfully deployed at sea • Eddy Watch – GOM (1705) • Eddy Watch – Trinidad (69) • Hurricane • Oil Spill • Search & Rescue • Ring & Eddy Surveys • Vessel Tracking • Instrument Recovery • Plankton Studies, etc.

  10. AIR-DEPLOYED EXPENDABLE BATHYTHERMOGRAPH (AXBT) Temperature

  11. OCEAN CURRENT SURVEYS RIG-MOUNTED ADCPs – EDDYNET EDDY ULYSSES LOOP CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY

  12. EDDY WATCH GOM CHART GULF of MEXICO 09 September 2004 EDDY WATCH REPORT CE EDDY ULYSSES WE CE LOOP CURRENT TITANIC EDDY

  13. EDDY WATCH CENTRAL GULF CHART GULF of MEXICO 09 September 2004 EDDY WATCH REPORT CE EDDY ULYSSES CE LC

  14. IDENTIFICATION OF EDDY FEATURES • Eddy size • Eddy shape • Rotation and migration • Vertical density structure • Swirl speed • Surrounding cyclonic eddies

  15. INITIALIZATION COMPONENT • Analysis of observational data • Identification of significant eddy features • Initialization component • Formulation of a “nowcast” • Model forecast

  16. COMPARISON OF TYPICAL OCEAN FORECAST SYSTEM… NOWCAST AUTOMATED DATA ASSIMILATION SATELLITE ALTIMETRY MODEL FORECAST ….WITH AEF-HMI EDDY FORECAST SYSTEM ALL OBSERVATIONAL DATA AVAILABLE IN REAL TIME INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE INTELLIGENT DATA ANALYSIS INITIAL CONDITIONS (NOWCAST) FORECAST MODEL

  17. 09 SEPTEMBER 2004 CENTRAL GULF CHART 09 SEPTEMBER 2004 NOWCAST

  18. 15 SEPTEMBER 2004 CENTRAL GULF CHART 15 SEPTEMBER 2004 FORECAST

  19. THUNDER HORSE FORECAST Thunder Horse

  20. BP THUNDER HORSE – ADCP vs EDDY FORECAST

  21. LOOP CURRENT FORECAST

  22. 3-D MODEL OF EDDY ULYSSES

  23. SUMMARY • New Loop Current/Eddy forecasting system now available • Skill in predicting currents out 1 month • Advance knowledge of currents answers questions

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