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WLEP SEP Refresh and LIS Development Evidence Base

WLEP SEP Refresh and LIS Development Evidence Base. September 2019. Contents. Glossary and comparator areas Headline indicators Foundations of Productivity Ideas People Infrastructure Business Environment Place Sector analysis and economic forecasts

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WLEP SEP Refresh and LIS Development Evidence Base

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  1. WLEP SEP Refresh and LIS Development Evidence Base September 2019

  2. Contents • Glossary and comparator areas • Headline indicators • Foundations of Productivity • Ideas • People • Infrastructure • Business Environment • Place • Sector analysis and economic forecasts • Alignment with the grand challenges • Summary of findings and key statistics

  3. Glossary

  4. Glossary

  5. Comparator areas The evidence base contains information for Worcestershire and where data is available, compares this with regional, national and similar, comparator LEP areas. Information for the Local Authority Districts within the WLEP area is also provided where available: • National and regional comparators: • West Midlands • Midlands Engine – this geography comprises 10 LEP areas : Greater Lincolnshire; D2N2; Leicester and Leicestershire; SE Midlands; Coventry and Warwickshire; Worcestershire; The Marches; Black Country; Stoke and Staffordshire; and GBSLEP. • National – where possible data is provided for the UK. Where this is not available GB data is provided (i.e. BRES), and where UK/GB figures are not available England comparators are used (skills, education, population). • Worcestershire districts: • Bromsgrove - Large numbers of businesses using the same registered addresses (e.g. a management company) are currently skewing both employment and business counts data from 2015 onwards • Malvern Hills • Redditch • Worcester City • Wychavon • Wyre Forest

  6. Comparator areas (2) • Comparator LEP areas – selected on the basis of size, rurality/location, characteristics similar to Worcestershire: • Dorset • Gloucestershire • Coventry and Warwickshire • Stoke and Staffordshire • Swindon and Wiltshire

  7. Headline indicators • Worcestershire: • County in West Midlands – 1,741km2, strategically located with the M5 providing connections to Birmingham and the North, London and the SE and Bristol and the SW • Cathedral city of Worcester is the largest town, with other major towns including: Bromsgrove, Droitwich, Evesham, Kidderminster, Malvern, Redditch and Stourport-on-Severn • Worcestershire has a population of 588,400 (mid 2017) of which 60% are working age. The breakdown of the population in the six districts is set out below: • Wychavon – 125,378 • Wyre Forest – 100,715 • Malvern Hills – 77,165 • Bromsgrove – 97,594 • Redditch – 85,204 • Worcester – 102,314 • The north-east of the county includes part of the industrial West Midlands while the rest of the county is largely rural (85%); however, nearly 75% of the population live in the urban areas.

  8. Headline indicators Jobs and GVA • Currently 275,000 people in employment in Worcestershire, with growth over the last five years. Slightly higher proportion of part time workers 34% compared with GB (32%) • Steady GVA growth in Worcestershire since 2009, in line with national and regional trends. £13.3 billion GVA generated in 2017 (10% of WM regional total) • Bromsgrove, Worcester City and Wychavon account for over 60% of the jobs and GVA. Source: BRES Source: BRES,ONS *See earlier note on Bromsgrove data. Source: ONS

  9. Headline indicators Jobs and GVA – comparator LEPs • In terms of employment Worcestershire has followed a similar trend to comparator LEP areas, albeit growth in Gloucestershire, Stoke and Staffordshire and Coventry and Warwickshire was higher up until 2015. • There has been strong growth in employment in Coventry and Warwickshire since 2013, which is mirrored by growth in GVA also. • All comparator LEP areas experienced growth in GVA prior to the recession in the period 1998 up to 2007/8. GVA has been steadily increasing in all areas since 2009, with Worcestershire’s growth ahead of Stoke and Staffordshire, Dorset and Swindon and Wiltshire. Source: BRES Source: ONS

  10. Headline indicators Productivity • GVA per filled job is currently £47,300 compared with £54,300 nationally (2017) • GVA per hour (£29.3) remains below the UK (£33.6) and a number of the comparator areas, with the exception of Stoke and Staffordshire and Dorset: • Swindon and Wiltshire £33.3 • Coventry and Warwickshire £32.4 • Gloucestershire £32.2 • GVA per employee varies across the county – ranging from £44,400 in Wyre Forest to £58,000 in Redditch Source: ONS, nominal (smoothed) data Source: ONS, BRES (2017) Source: ONS, nominal (smoothed) data

  11. Headline indicators Prosperity • Worcestershire’s GVA per head is currently at £22,600 – 82% of the UK average (£27,555). There are wide variations within the county ranging from £14,000 in Wyre Forest compared to £28,500 in Worcester, and similarly mixed performance among the comparator LEPs. • Productivity is one of the key factors impacting GVA per head in Worcestershire in addition to the lower working age population: (figures show comparisons with UK=100) • Number of people available to work (Working age population) - 96% • Employment rate - 106 • How much people work (hours) - 100 • How well people work (productivity) - 85 Source: ONS Source: ONS

  12. Headline indicators • Analysis demonstrates that if Worcestershire’s productivity levels matched the national average, the area could generate an additional £1.5 billion. • This is primarily due to local sector productivity rather than the local sector mix. For example, productivity levels for food and drink are just over 50% of the national average. • If productivity levels were matched with the UK average for each sector, Real Estate, land transport, education, food and drink and professional services all have the capacity to add in excess of £100m to the local economy. Source: AMION analysis using data from Experian The GVA figures for Real Estate are high for all areas due to the classification of activities contained within the ‘Real Estate’ sector. Worcestershire’s productivity for real estate is approx. 75% of UK average.

  13. Headline indicators • Productivity Analysis • Analysis carried out in 2016 to explore potential economic synergies between Worcestershire, Warwickshire and Staffordshire County Councils assessed the importance of underlying economic characteristics to productivity performance • A range of indicators were used to determine which factors were contributing to the economic performance of the areas (as shown opposite) • Data on productivity (i.e. GVA per hour) was used as a surrogate indicator for areas’ economic performance and a combination of statistical tools and factor/regression analysis at the LEP level across England were used in the assessment • The analysis provides an example of the range of factors contributing to productivity within a locality

  14. Headline indicators • Productivity Analysis – results • Worcestershire – was assessed as a moderate performing area with the assets combining to produce a productivity loss of £0.15 per hour. It was in the third quintile nationally i.e. ranking around the median for all areas. Labour market factors were the only asset group to rank below the broad median nationally, although all asset groups with the exception of ‘Access’ made a negative contribution to productivity. • Coventry/Warwickshire – had the most productive mix of assets of the areas and was in the second highest quintile of all LEP areas nationally. The assets combined are estimated to account for a productivity gain of £1.00 per hour over the average for all LEP areas in the country. Access (to large business centres, rail links to London and airports) was of particularly beneficial significance. The area’s industrial structure, labour market and enterprise base were also relatively significant assets. Productivity Performance (£GVA per hour) • Stoke/Staffordshire – had the least favourable asset profile of the three areas. In combination they lead to a productivity loss of £1.13 per hour relative to the average for all LEPs. The area was in the fourth quintile nationally with weaknesses across most asset groups with particular underperformance in terms of skills and the characteristics of its industrial base. Access was again a positive asset – contributing some £0.20 per hour to its relative productivity performance.

  15. Headline Indicators • Productivity Analysis • In the absence of a full re-modelling of the data, the table below provides a brief commentary on Worcestershire’s recent performance with regard to the indicators used in the analysis.

  16. Foundations of ProductivityIdeas

  17. Ideas Research, Development and Innovation Assets: • UK 5G testbed • Led by a team of 5G and Industry 4.0 experts, the Worcestershire 5G Testbed provides a platform for UK industry to develop and test next-generation technology that will revolutionise the way businesses operate in the future. • The Worcestershire 5G Testbed Consortium, led by the WLEP is comprised of global experts and partners including: 5GIC at the University of Surrey, AWTG, Huawei, O2 and BT, with local businesses already using the technology including Worcester Bosch, Yamazaki Mazak, and multinational defence company, QinetiQ. • Based at Malvern Hills Science Park, the Consortium will explore a range of use cases including increased productivity in manufacturing, machinery fault detection, remote training, and ‘security by design’. • Cyber Resilience Alliance: • Several established cyber security clusters (Malvern, Worcester and Cheltenham) • Research – SIA area has an LQ of 2.2 for cyber security projects led, twice as likely as the national average to have organisations leading publicly funded cyber security research • R&D investment and commercial activity (second largest cluster outside London) and hotbed for cyber security innovation; • Infrastructure that supports innovation – emphasis on high-tech, cyber, digital and manufacturing industries; home to a range of universities, research institutes, incubation and innovation spaces; skills; and close proximity to several work leading businesses, and other agencies active in cyber security, advanced manufacturing and automotive technologies • BetaDen Technology Accelerator: • Situated at Malvern Hills Science Park, BetaDen offers entrepreneurs, start-ups and scale up businesses, a package worth over £50,000 consisting of: free office space, mentoring from industry experts, access to Worcestershire’s 5G testbed and a proof of concept grant worth £15,000. • Co-location with the 5G Testbed provides exposure to the innovation ecosystem and positioning at the forefront of future technology.

  18. Ideas Research, Development and Innovation Assets: • University of Worcester: • 10,800 students (8,945 undergraduate, 1,855 postgraduate, 94% UK students, 6% overseas) • Specialisms: Subjects allied to medicine (25%); Biological Sciences (21%); Education (21%) • Research Centre for Dementia Studies; The National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit; Centre for Violence prevention • Malvern Hills Science Park: • 10 acre site – good road/rail links to the Midlands, London and the South • 35 tenant companies with access to support from the central technology belt • Innovation centre – 23 units (350-2000 sq ft), access to support from the Regional Technology Exchange, discrete units and lab facilities • Whyche Innovation Centre: • Business incubation, technology accelerator, co-working space • Home to a number of start-ups and technology SMEs including Key IQ, Datalytic Software UK Ltd, Blockmark Technologies Ltd, the UK Cyber Security Forum and the IASME Consortium Source: HESA

  19. Ideas R&D spending – currently low at approx. 1% of GVA (GERD) and well below the national target of 2.7% (2.4%). This is largely made up of Business expenditure (BERD) rather than HE expenditure (HERD) • Worcestershire: • BERD – approx. £410 million (2014/5) • HERD - £1.2 million (2014/5) Smart Specialisation Hub

  20. Ideas • Proportion of Worcestershire patents by technology area. Benchmarking relative to the highest LEP = 1 (excludes London). Over the period 2015-2017, total for WLEP = 96 (ranking 32 out of 38 LEPs) • Grants offered by Innovate UK (March 2014-2018), WLEP compared with the average value for all LEPs. Based on the total value of grants, WLEP ranked 35 out of 38 LEPS. • Employment by Science and Technology Category, WLEP compared with the average employment levels for each category for all LEPs Source: Smart Specialisation Hub

  21. Ideas Employment in high-tech manufacturing and knowledge intensive industries • As shown, Worcestershire has a higher proportion of total employees in high technology manufacturing compared with the regional and national averages (14% compared with 12% for GB) although this has declined recently • However, the area has a lower proportion of employees working in knowledge intensive services compared with the national picture (33% compared with 38%) Graduate Employment Source: BRES, ONS Source: Smart Specialisation Hub, DLHE 2013/14, HESA Source: BRES, ONS

  22. Ideas Comparative high-tech manufacturing • While Worcestershire has a higher proportion of total employees in high technology manufacturing compared with the national average, Coventry and Warwickshire, Gloucestershire and Swindon and Wiltshire are all higher • Only Stoke and Staffordshire have fewer employees engaged in knowledge intensive services than Worcestershire • The decline in high tech manufacturing during 2016-17 resulted from a reduction in employment in Bromsgrove, Redditch and Malvern Hills to a lesser extent Source: BRES, ONS Source: BRES, ONS Source: BRES, ONS

  23. Foundations of ProductivityPeople

  24. People • Demand for labour: by industry/workplace • 275,000 jobs in the area • 264,000 employees (11,000 business owners) 174,000 full-time employees; 90,000 part-time • Higher proportion of employment in Worcestershire (as a % of all employment) compared with GB in the following sectors: Source: BRES

  25. People Demand for labour and skills - vacancies • Overall a similar proportion of Worcestershire employers recorded having at least one hard to fill vacancy compared with the WM and England • 22% of all education establishments and 19% health and social work establishments had hard to fill vacancies, followed by 13% of manufacturing companies • Among business services and manufacturers, over 40% of all vacancies were related to skills shortages, followed by 35% within education • Worcestershire overall had a lower percentage of vacancies related to skills shortages (19%) compared with WM and England (25% and 22%) • Hard to fill vacancies (reasons): • Quality of applicants 66%; quantity of applicants 44% • Low number with required skills – 52% • Not enough interested in the type of work – 30% • Attitude, motivation – 22% • Poor terms and conditions – 15% Source: 2017 Employers skill survey

  26. People Demand for labour and skills – skills gaps • Overall 13% of all employers reported skills gaps among the labour force within Worcestershire, in line with the national average • At least 20% of all financial services, health and social work establishments, manufacturers and hotels and restaurants recorded having skills gaps. • Within financial services, 10% of all staff were reported to be less than proficient • Over 30% of all Worcestershire employers reported a mismatch of skills within their organisation (i.e. have qualifications/skills more advanced than required for their current role), marginally less than the national average. • Fewer manufacturing (18%) and business service employers (21%) reported underutilised staff – as these employers also experienced the greatest level of skill shortages among the workforce, while over 40% of education providers had underutilised staff. Source: 2017 Employers skill survey

  27. People Demand for labour and skills – training • Over 60% of all employers in Worcestershire provided training in 2017 in line with the regional and national trends • Slightly lower average number of days per staff member 2.9 compared with 3.9 nationally; 5.3 for trainees compared with 6.4 nationally • Training was particularly high among education, health and social work employers, arts and other services and construction employers • Methods of delivery varies by sector with: • more off the job training among Construction employers • more on the job training in education • higher levels of online training and e-learning among ICT and financial service employers Source: 2017 Employers skill survey

  28. People Future Training • 62% of all Worcestershire employers reported the need for upskilling and training in the next 12 months. Reasons cited include: • Introduction of new technologies and equipment (42% of establishments) • Development of new products/services (40%) • Skills that will need developing include: • Digital Skills (48% of employers who anticipate the need for new skills) • Adapting to new equipment or materials (45%) • Specialist skills or knowledge to perform the role (41%) • Knowledge of new products/services (40%) • Advanced/Specialist IT (32%) Demand for labour and skills – Training • In the last 12 months there has been a greater proportion of training in labour intensive occupations and less than average levels of training in high skill occupations compared with the other LEP areas. • Training (reasons given for lack of more training): • Lack of funds for training/training expensive – 62% (52% average) • Can’t spare more staff time – 47% • Hard to find time to organise – 11% Source: Employer Skills Survey

  29. People • Supply of labour: • The area currently has a population of 588,400 (mid 2017) of which 60.1% are working age (353,600), with a slightly lower proportion of young people and higher level of older people compared with the national picture (22.2% compared with 18.2% in GB). • The population has increased steadily over the last 20 years – by approximately 9.3% in total. • Import and export of labour • As shown Worcestershire is a net exporter of labour, with both Bromsgrove and Worcester being net importers of labour. Source: ONS population estimates Source: BRES, ONS * Bromsgrove see earlier note on data

  30. People • Supply of labour: • The area currently has a population of 588,400 (mid 2017) of which 60.1% are working age (353,600), with a slightly lower proportion of young people and higher level of older people compared with the national picture (22.2% compared with 18.2% in GB). • The population has increased steadily over the last 20 years, by approximately 9.3% in total with lower growth than the regional and national averages since 2009. • Population growth in Worcestershire has similarly been lower than the comparator LEPs with the exception of Stoke and Staffordshire. Swindon and Wiltshire has grown at a significantly higher rate since 2006 and Coventry and Warwickshire have experienced faster population growth over the last 5 years. Source: ONS population estimates

  31. People • Economic activity and employment • Worcestershire benefits from a high employment rate (78%) and lower levels of unemployment among the resident population (c.3.9% compared with 4.3% for GB), resulting economic activity levels that are consistently higher than the regional and national average (81%, 2018) • While employment rates within the districts are variable, the majority are above the national rate • In addition to lower levels of unemployment, the proportion of 16-17 year olds who are not in education, employment or training (NEETs) is also below the national average of 6% at 5.1%, although this represents a slight increase on 2017 when the level stood at 4.7% Source: ONS annual population survey

  32. People • Economic activity and employment – comparator LEPs • Resident employment rates within the comparator LEP areas have fluctuated over the last 10 years across all areas • Employment in Gloucestershire has remained high at over 75% and is now approx. 82%, above the rate for Worcestershire. • Swindon and Wiltshire has been steadily increasing since 2012, but fell between 2017-2018 • While Stoke and Staffordshire and Coventry and Warwickshire are below Worcestershire, employment in both areas has been increasing steadily since 2011. Source: ONS annual population survey

  33. People Residents employed by industry: • over 25% of all residents are employed in public admin, education and health roles – although this is less than the national average • the area has a higher concentration of residents employed in manufacturing roles, construction and in distribution, hotels and restaurants – all above national trends Residents employed by occupation: • higher proportion of residents in managerial roles, skilled trades and elementary occupations and approx. 1 in 5 residents employed in professional occupations • lower proportion of residents employed in low skill occupations – for example, caring, leisure and other service occupations and sales and customer services Source: ONS Annual Population Survey

  34. People Supply of Skills • Across Worcestershire 87% of schools are rated good or outstanding compared with the national average of 89% and the percentage of pupils attaining strong passes at KS4 is above the national average (e.g. 42.3% achieve grade 5 or above in English and Maths compared with 39.9% for England, 2017/18) and the progress 8 score is also higher at 46.3 compared with 44.3 for England. • However post 16 performance falls below the national average and the average point score per entry for A levels is 28.9 (C) compared with 33.3 (C+) for England. The proportion of pupils achieving AAB or higher in 2 subjects is similarly lower at 9% compared with 16.2% for England. • The area has a relatively high proportion of residents educated to degree level or above (NVQ Level 4+) which is ahead of the WM average but behind the national, however the level has fallen over the last two years. • In contrast, 7.2% of the working age population have no qualifications, lower than the UK average. Source: ONS Annual Population Survey

  35. People Supply of Skills • Within the county there are variations in NVQ performance including a high level of NVQ 4 qualifications in Malvern Hills, Wychavon and Bromsgrove and lower levels of qualifications in Worcester City at all levels and a high level of workers with no qualifications • Across the LEP areas, Coventry and Warwickshire, Gloucestershire, Dorset and Swindon and Wiltshire perform better than Worcestershire, with only Stoke and Staffordshire attaining lower levels of both NVQ 3 and NVQ 4. • Both Coventry and Warwickshire and Stoke and Staffordshire have higher levels of residents with no qualifications.

  36. People Vocational Qualifications • Across Worcestershire there has been a reduction in the number of apprenticeship starts over the last year, associated with the introduction of the Apprenticeship Levy in April 2017. The total number of starts were down from 5580 in 2016/7 to 4070 in 2017/18. This is in line with national trends, accounted for by a large decrease in the number of intermediate starts, a decline in advanced apprenticeships and an increase in higher level starts. • The number of achievements has continued to increase and of the 3080 in 2017/18, 51% were intermediate levels, 41% of achievements were Advanced; and 7% were Higher qualifications.

  37. People Graduate retention • Comparatively low percentage of students staying to study and work in the area and a correspondingly high number of students who leave to study and do not return

  38. People Workplace and resident earnings • Worcestershire has significantly lower workplace earnings than comparator LEPs. Full time weekly pay is approx. £500 compared with over £580 in Coventry and Warwickshire • Resident earnings are on the whole, higher or the same across all LEP areas • Earnings within Worcestershire also vary with the lowest levels of resident earnings in Wyre Forest at approximately £480 compared with £660 in Bromsgrove • The gender pay gap in Worcestershire is currently at 15.0% (median, 12.3% mean), the fourth lowest of all LEP areas. Coventry and Warwickshire LEP has the highest pay gap at 26.7% (mean 22.4%). Source: ONS annual survey of hours and earnings (ASHE)

  39. People • Population projections • Over the next 20 years the population in Worcestershire is set to increase by approx. 8%, but at a slower rate than the growth expected for the region and England overall • Within the county, population projections are mixed with very little growth expected in Redditch in contrast to Bromsgrove and Wychavon which are both expected to grow by in excess of 10%. • Closer analysis of the projections show a shift in Worcestershire’s profile with: • further decreases expected in the working age population (16-64) • an increase in the population aged 65+ • fluctuations in the level of young people, resulting in a marginal overall net change Source: ONS population projections

  40. People • Population projections • The working age population in the area is also expected to fluctuate over the next 20 years but with a net decrease by 2041 and a divergence from both the national and regional trends. • By 2041, 54% of the population will be working age compared with 58% nationally. • Amongst the other LEP areas, only Gloucestershire and Coventry and Warwickshire are projected to increase their working age populations. • The proportion of the WAP in Dorset, Stoke and Staffordshire, and Swindon and Wiltshire are expected to decrease more than Worcestershire. • Alongside the falling working age population, the proportion of residents aged 65+ is expected to increase significantly. Source: ONS Population projections

  41. People • Population projections • Within Worcestershire, Redditch is expected to see the biggest decrease in WAP while Worcester and Bromsgrove are set to increase their working age populations • By 2041, 29% of residents will be aged 65+ compared with 21% for England • The current and projected old age dependency ratio (the number of state pension age residents as a proportion of the working age population) in Worcestershire is well above the England average and increasing • There are a number of variations within the area, with much lower levels of old age dependency in Redditch and Worcester compared and above average in all four other districts. • By 2041, there will be 2 state pension age residents for every 3 working age residents in Malvern Hills. Source: ONS Population Projections

  42. Foundations of Productivity Infrastructure

  43. Infrastructure Business Premises: • The total stock of business premises within Worcestershire has remained broadly constant over the last five years, with increasing levels of industrial and other stock • The area has: • a higher proportion of industrial stock compared with the national picture but lower than WM • Low levels of office stock compared with both WM and England averages Source: ONS VOA Business Floorspace data

  44. Infrastructure Office and Industrial markets • Office – headline rents ranging from £11 sq ft in Wyre Forest to £19 in Bromsgrove • Industrial – headline rents ranging from £5.29 in Wyre Forest to £9.59 in Wychavon • Key messages from the 2018/19 commercial property market report: • occupiers capitalising on Worcestershire’s central location • take-up highlights the need for more commercial space • rental growth across all sectors shows demand • vacancy rates at a 5 year low • more growth and inward investment predicted in 2019 Source: GJS Dillon Commercial Property Market Report 2018/19. * Business numbers taken from the MINT database **See earlier note on Bromsgrove data

  45. Infrastructure District – SME supply and demand Source: WCC Research (Various sources - GJS Dillon Commercial Property; Consultation events; District land reviews)

  46. Infrastructure District – SME supply and demand Source: WCC Research (Various sources - GJS Dillon Commercial Property; Consultation events; District land reviews)

  47. Infrastructure Housing • Recent housing growth is ahead of the national trend - 71% increase in housing starts over the last 5 years compared with 57% nationally (2012-2017) • 49% increase in completions compared with 37% for England overall • There has been an increase of 15,000 homes since 2011, with the total stock now at 263,710 (2018) Land Registry, March 2019 • Average house prices in Worcestershire are above the national and regional averages resulting from comparatively high prices for detached homes

  48. Infrastructure Housing • There are variations in house prices across the districts with lower prices in Wyre Forest for all housing types and higher prices in Wychavon, Bromsgrove and Malvern Hills • House price affordability has followed national trends since 2002, but the ratio in Worcestershire has been consistently higher than the national figure Source: ONS Housing Affordability in England and Wales (2016)

  49. Infrastructure Housing • Affordability ratios in the districts have also been up and down with affordability ratios in Wychavon and Malvern Hills above the Worcestershire average • While Worcestershire has been consistently higher than the national rate, affordability ratios in Dorset, Wiltshire, Gloucestershire are all higher, while Stoke and Staffordshire, Swindon and Coventry and Warwickshire are lower. • Following a dip in affordability in 2009, ratios have started to increase marginally Source: ONS Housing Affordability in England and Wales (2016)

  50. Infrastructure Transport and Connectivity • Travel to work – most popular methods include car, walking, bus, cycling • Higher proportion of home working and less travel by bus/train compared with the average for England Source: 2011 Census

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