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Population Theories. Theories of Demographic Transition. Demographic Transition is the phenomenon of a country’s death and birth rates changing over time from high to low. Over time, the average family size has decreased in every country of the world.
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Population Theories Theories of Demographic Transition
Demographic Transitionis the phenomenon of a country’s death and birth rates changing over time from high to low. • Over time, the average family size has decreased in every country of the world. • In approximately 60 countries, the total fertility rate has fallen to less than 2.1. Canada is one of these countries.
Stage 1: Pre-transition • Stable population • High birth rate and death rate • Fertility rate of 8 or more • Extremely high infant mortality rate • Many young children, very few older people • No country in the world is still at the pre-transition stage.
Stage 2: Early Transition • Very rapid increase in population • Death rate declines rapidly • Fertility rate remains high • Infant mortality rate declines • High birth rate • Many young people • Early Transition is marked by death control
Stage 3: Late Transition • Population growth slows down • Birth rate declines rapidly • Death rate declines slowly • Fertility rate declines • Increasing number of older people • Late Transition is marked by birth control
Stage 4: Post-transition • Stable or slow population increase • Low birth rate and death rate • Fertility rate less than 2.1 • Many older people which leads to a high dependency load
Stage 5:? (doesn’t fit the model, but is happening now!) • Declining population • Extremely low birth rate • Death rate is low • Fertility rate less than 2 • A lot of older people • Is it permanent or just a temporary trend???
Differing Ideas About Population Growth Optimistic vs. Pessimistic
Optimistic Views • Historically, large families and a growing population have been desirable for various reasons. • Religious Reasons: More Children = More Followers and More Followers = More Political/Social Power • Non-Religious Reasons: Leaders needed larger numbers to support their economic and military expansionist desires.
Cornucopians • Cornucopians believe that humans have the ability to find technological innovations that will increase the earth’s carrying capacity. • The Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions would be their evidence. • A cornucopian may say that the next major human innovation will solve our energy crisis without damaging the environment.
Bogue (1960’s) • D.J Bogue’s theory of demographic regulationstated that over an extended period of time, a society will naturally limit its own population in accordance to the Earth’s ability to support it. • Bogue’s theory is supported by the demographic transition model and in the fact that some countries have tried to limit their population growth in recent years.
Pessimistic Views • Critics have all made the same basic point – Earth is of finite size and has an ability to support only a certain level of population.
Thomas Malthus William Catton • Warned of population problems in his writing in 1798. • Pop. grows in a geometric sequence (1,2,4,8,16. . .) while food grows arithmetically (1,2,3,4 . . .) • Only result is onset of “misery”. (famine, disease, war) • Expanded on Malthus’ views in 1980’s. • Introduced idea of Earth’s carrying capacity; it can only be exceeded at the expense of the environment. • Suggests we’re beyond the carrying capacity now only because we’re using up the world’s fixed stock of natural resources for future generations.
