Presenter: James L. Morrison Date: March 16, 1998

1. Anticipating the Future of Higher Education Presenter: James L. Morrison Date: March 16, 1998 SCT SUMMIT ’98 Session number / Page 1

2. Introduction • Objectives: • What are the signals of change that will affect higher education in the 21st Century? • How can we respond? • I will be your strategic intelligence officer

3. Strategic Intelligence • Identify signals of change • Gather information • Evaluate information • Make decisions to shape the future

4. Agenda • The tool: Environmental scanning • The analysis: Change drivers • The data: social, economic, technological • The implications

5. Change Drivers • The Maturation of America • The Mosaic Society • Globalization • Economic Restructuring • Information Technology

6. Older Americans to Experience Fastest Growth (1990 to 2000) Source: US. Bureau of the Census

7. Distribution of US. Population by Race and Origin (1900-2050) Source: Business Horizons

8. Immigration • Between 1970 and 2000 New York City’s population will shift from 2/3 white to 1/3 • In 1970, 5%of U.S. residents born elsewhere; in 1996, 10% • Top sources: Mexico, the Philippines, China, Cuba, India

9. The Enrollment Pipeline High School Graduates, 1979-2004 (millions of students) 3.0 2.8 We Are Here! 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 2004 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 source: WICHE

10. An Aging Clientele for Higher Education

11. Impact of Continuing Education for the Workforce • Tomorrow (2000) • 672 new campuses • 20 million new learners • $235b to build • $217b/year to operate • Today • 3613 institutions • 16 million students • $156b in operations • Workforce Statistics • 141 million workers • 1/7 require 7 credit equivalents/year Source: Michael Dolence AACRAO 1997

12. Supply and Demand Demand for Education L e a r n e r s Resources Available Time

13. Implications • An increasingly diverse society • Increasing student enrollment • An aging student population • Concern about costs/productivity • A disparity between supply and demand

14. Economic • Globalization • Economic Restructuring • Downsizing

15. Globalization • Movement of capital, products, technology, information continue at record pace • Global economy • Regional free trade • Multinational corporations • Economic competition increase • Must be able to function in a global economy for job success in the 21st century

16. Economic • Continued organizational downsizing • corporate • governmental • educational • Virtual companies • Outsourcing • Increased number of home-based businesses • Responsibility-centered management

17. Percent of Firms Downsizing by Business Category Source: Chicago Tribune, August 21, 1995

18. During the decade of the 80’s, 46% of the companies listed in the “Fortune 500” disappeared.

19. The Department of Labor estimates that by the year 2000 at least 44% of all workers will be in data services (e.g., gathering, processing, retrieving, or analyzing information).

20. From 1980 to 1994, the U.S. contingent workforce—temps, self-employed, consultants—increased 57%

21. Fading are the 9-5 workdays, lifetime jobs, predictable, hierarchical relationships, corporate culture security blankets, and, for a large and growing sector of the workforce, the workplace itself (replacedby a cybernetics “workspace”).

22. Constant training, retraining, job-hopping, and even career-hopping will become the norm.

23. Today, 65% of all workers use some type of information technology in their jobs. By 2000, this will increase to 95%.

24. Implications • Globalization • Economic Restructuring

25. Technology

26. Students can no longer prepare bark to calculate problems. They depend instead on expensive slates. What will they do when the slate is dropped and breaks? Teacher’s Conference, 1703

27. Students depend on paper too much. They no longer know how to write on a slate without getting dust all over themselves. What will happen when they run out of paper? Principal’s Association Meeting, 1815

28. Students depend too much upon ink. They no longer know how to use a knife to sharpen a pencil. National Association of Teachers, 1907

29. Students depend too much on store bought ink. They don’t know how to make their own. What will happen when they run out? Rural American Teacher, 1928

35. “You don’t turn it on. You open it and turn the pages.”

36. What Lies Ahead in Technology • Diminution • Simulations • Virtual Reality • WWW • Low-Earth-Orbit Satellites • Web TV • Net PC • Expert Systems

37. The cost of computing power drops roughly 30% every year, and microchips are doubling in performance power every 18 months.

38. You give the birthday kid a Saturn, made by Sega, the gamemaker. It runs on a higher-performance processor than the original 1976 Cray supercomputer.

39. Today’s average consumers wear more computing power on their wrists than existed in the entire world before 1961.

40. In 1991, companies spent more money on computing and communications gear than the combined monies spent on industrial, mining, farm, and construction equipment.

41. Today, 65% of all workers use some type of information technology in their jobs. By 2000, this will increase to 95%.

45. I very much doubt that we’re the only family on the block without a Web page.

46. Signals of Change On the Horizon

47. Signals • Educational courses and programs are being produced by corporations • Cable and phone companies are consolidating to provide interactive multimedia programming

48. Signals • A third of Americans have a computer in the home; 40% of these have modems • An increasing number of students want and need non-traditional, flexible schedules

49. Signals • Certification monopoly at risk • employers concerned about competency • employers relying less on diplomas • Outcomes assessment coming on line--Western Governors University

50. Signals • Job guarantee programs • Univ Miami engineering • St. John Fisher College • Univ Missouri-Rolla