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A Bird’s Eye View: Socio-Economic, Demographic, and Agricultural Trends Facing Kentucky

A Bird’s Eye View: Socio-Economic, Demographic, and Agricultural Trends Facing Kentucky Julie N. Zimmerman Department of Community and Leadership Development Community and Economic Development Extension Program. Presentation to the Regional Issues and Program Committee Orientation.

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A Bird’s Eye View: Socio-Economic, Demographic, and Agricultural Trends Facing Kentucky

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  1. A Bird’s Eye View: Socio-Economic, Demographic, and Agricultural Trends Facing Kentucky Julie N. Zimmerman Department of Community and Leadership Development Community and Economic Development Extension Program Presentation to the Regional Issues and Program Committee Orientation. Sept. 30, 2003

  2. Cooperative Extension Regions Central Eastern Western

  3. Goals • Look at some issues and trends facing KY • Look at the distribution across the state with an eye towards issues and trends in regions and that extend beyond one region’s boundaries • Not all issues and trends and not enough time to go into depth on any single issue (“Bird’s Eye View”)

  4. Legend Kentucky = 3.2 Drprt100 Drop 0ut Rates Grades 7-12 per 100 Students Enrolled (2000-01 school year) Quartiles 4.0 to 9.3 3.0 to 4.0 2.1 to 3.0 0.3 to 2.1 Data Source: Kentucky Kids Count

  5. Legend Kentucky = 3.2 Drprt100 Drop 0ut Rates Grades 7-12 per 100 Students Enrolled (2000-2001 school year) Equal Range 7.0 to 9.3 4.8 to 7.0 2.5 to 4.8 0.3 to 2.5 Data Source: Kentucky Kids Count

  6. Some Issues Facing KY 1. PEOPLE Population Households Aging Race & Ethnicity Education 3. COMMUNITY Unemployment Jobs Median Household Income Poverty Rates Working Poor 2. FAMILY Single parents Teen birth rates Grandparents Raising Grandkids 4. AGRICULTURE Farms Land/Size of Farms Off Farm Work Aging Farmers

  7. Legend 15.3% to 73.0% 8.9% to 15.3% 4.2% to 8.9% -9.2% to 4.2% Pcpop9000 Percent Change in the Total Population, 1990-2000. Quartiles Kentucky = 9.7% High growth area = Population decline Data Source: 2000 Census

  8. Legend Yellow = Population Stable or Increase Red = Population Decline Pcpop9000 Change in the Total Population, 1990-2000 Kentucky = 9.7% Data Source: 2000 Census

  9. Legend Pchh9000 Percent Change in the Number of Households (1990-2000) Quartiles Kentucky = 15.3% High growth area 20.9% to 73.4% 15.0% to 20.9% 9.1% to 15.0% -4.2% to 9.1% = Population decline Data Source: 2000 Census

  10. Legend Netmig Net Migration, 1990-1999 Kentucky had net in-migration Yellow = More in migration than out migration Red = More out migration than in migration Data Source: 2000 Census & 1999 Estimate

  11. Data Source: Census Bureau Projections

  12. Legend Pc65pl00 Percent of Total Population that is 65 years or Older (2000) Quartiles Kentucky = 12.5% 15.0% to 18.5% 13.4% to 15.0% 11.5% to 13.4% 7.0% to 11.5% High concentrations Data Source: 2000 Census

  13. Legend Pop65 Projected Share of the Population that is 65 years and over in 2030 (Middle Series) Quartiles Kentucky = 18.3% High concentration in part due to out migration 23.3% to 30.0% 20.3% to 23.3% 18.1% to 20.3% 10.4% to 18.1% Data Source: Census Bureau Projections

  14. Legend Pcafram00 Percent of People Reporting One Race Only who are African American (2000) Equal Range Kentucky = 7.4% 18.2% to 24.3% 12.2% to 18.2% 6.1% to 12.2% 0.0% to 6.1% Data Source: 2000 Census

  15. Legend Pchisp00 Percent of Total Population that is Hispanic or Latino of Any Race (2000) Equal Range Kentucky = 1.5% 3.9% to 4.8% 3.0% to 3.9% 2.2% to 3.0% 1.3% to 2.2% 0.4% to 1.3% Data Source: 2000 Census

  16. Legend allnotwel Of Those Who Speak Spanish (Native or Foreign Born), Percent Who Do Not Speak English Well or at All (2000) Equal Range Kentucky = 25.8% 48.1% to 64.1% 32.1% to 48.1% 16.0% to 32.1% 0.0 %to 16.0% Data Source: 2000 Census

  17. Legend Teenbirth Teen Birth Rates (Births per 1,000 Females Ages 15-17) (1996-2000) Equal Range Kentucky = 33 Births per 1,000 Females ages 15-17 50.7 to 64.0 37.5 to 50.7 24.2 to 37.5 11.0 to 24.2 Data Source: Kentucky Kids Count

  18. Legend Pcteenb Change in Teen Birth Rate (Births per 1,000 Females Ages 15-17), (1986-90 to 1996-2000) Kentucky = -21.4 Red = No Change or Increase Yellow = Decrease Data Source: Kentucky Kids Count

  19. Legend Pcsingfam Percent of all Families with Children who are Single Parent Families (2000) Quartiles Kentucky = 28.2% 28.2% to 42.5% 25.5% to 28.2% 23.5% to 25.5% 15.6% to 23.5% Data Source: 2000 Census/Kentucky Kids Count

  20. Legend Pcgsingfam Percent Change in the Number of Families with Children who are Single Parent Families (1990-2000) Quartiles Kentucky = 33.8% 59.3% to 124.2% 40.6% to 59.3% 21.8% to 40.6% -17.5% to 21.8% Data Source: 2000 Census/Kentucky Kids Count

  21. Legend Grandp Percent of Grandparents Living with Own Grandchildren under age 18 and Who are Responsible for their Grandchildren (2000) Quartiles Kentucky = 51.5% 60.3% to 87.5% 53.5% to 60.3% 48.7% to 53.5% 32.4% to 48.7% Data Source: 2000 Census

  22. Data Source: 2000 Census

  23. Net Out-Migration Counties Legend Pchsless Percent of Population Ages 18-64 who have less than High School Graduate (2002) Equal Range Kentucky = 21.1% 36.7% to 45.0% 28.5% to 36.7% 20.2% to 28.5% 12.0% to 20.2% Data Source: 2000 Census

  24. Legend Pchs Percent of Population Ages 18-64 who are a High School Graduate (incl. equivalency) (2002) Equal Range Kentucky = 34.7% 42.3% to 49.4% 35.1% to 42.3% 28.0% to 35.1% 20.9% to 28.0% Data Source: 2000 Census

  25. Legend Pcsmcol Percent of Population Ages 18-64 who have some College (2002) Equal Range Kentucky = 27.5% 31.9% to 38.5% 25.3% to 31.9% 18.7% to 25.3% 12.1% to 18.7% Data Source: 2000 Census

  26. Legend Pcbachm Percent of Population Ages 18-64 who have Professional, Bachelors Degree or more (2002) Equal Range Kentucky = 16.7% 25.7% to 32.8% 18.7% to 25.7% 11.6% to 18.7% 4.6% to 11.6 % Data Source: 2000 Census

  27. Legend Unemplo02 Annual Average Unemployment Rate (2002) Equal Range Kentucky = 5.6% 10.5% to 13.0% 7.9% to 10.5% 5.4% to 7.9% 2.9% to 5.4% Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Estimates

  28. Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Estimates

  29. Legend pcunempl Percent Change in the Annual Average Unemployment Rate (2000-2002) Quartiles Kentucky = 36.6% 56.3% to 145.2% 30.1% to 56.3% 7.3% to 30.1% -38.5% to 7.3% Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Estimates

  30. Legend pcunempl Change in the Annual Average Unemployment Rate (2000-2002) Kentucky = 36.6% Red = Increase Yellow = Decrease Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Estimates

  31. Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, REIS

  32. Legend Employch Change in Total Full and Part-Time Employment (2000-2001) Kentucky = -22,430 Yellow = Increase or No Change Red = Decrease Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, REIS

  33. Legend Manuf Percent of Total Employment in Manufacturing (2001) Quartiles Kentucky = 12.9% 19.8% to 54.2% 11.7% to 19.8% 6.4% to 11.7% 0.0% to 6.4% Data not disclosed Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, REIS

  34. Legend Retail Percent of Total Employment in Retail (2001) Quartiles Kentucky = 11.6% 13.1% to 19.8% 11.0% to 13.1% 8.9% to 11.0% 0.0% to 8.9% Data not disclosed Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, REIS

  35. Legend Hhinc99 Median Household Income (1999) Quintiles (5) Kentucky = $33,672 $36,432 to $63,229 $31,776 to $36,432 $28,089 to $31,776 $22,064 to $28,089 $15,805 to $22,064 Data Source: 2000 Census

  36. Legend Pchhinc Percent Change in Median Household Income 1989-1999 (Adjusted to 1999 dollars) Quintiles (5) Kentucky = 14.5% 26.8% to 59.0% 20.2% to 26.8% 16.2% to 20.2% 11.1% to 16.2% -7.5% to 11.1% Data Source: 2000 Census/Kentucky State Data Center

  37. Legend Pov2000 Total Poverty Rate (2000) Quintiles (5) Kentucky = 15.8% 26.4 to 45.4 18.6 to 26.4 15.4 to 18.6 12.3 to 15.4 4.1 to 12.3 Data Source: 2000 Census

  38. Legend Pcpvwork Percent of all Families Below Poverty with at least One Adult Working at Least Part-Time or More (2000) Quartiles Kentucky = 52.1% 27.3% - 46.5% 58.7% to 70.7% 54.2% to 58.7% 46.5% to 54.2% 27.3% to 46.5% Data Source: 2000 Census

  39. Legend Chgallf Change in the Number of Farms (1992-1997) Kentucky = -8.9% Yellow = Increase Red = Decrease Data Source: 1992 & 1997 Agriculture Censuses

  40. Legend chgsizef Change in the Average Size of Farm (1992-1997) Kentucky = 7.3% Yellow = Increase Red = Decrease Data Source: 1992 & 1997 Agriculture Censuses

  41. Legend Offfarm Percent of Operators Working 200 Days or more Off the Farm (1997) Quartiles Kentucky = 40.4% 46.3% to 66.7% 43.2% to 46.3% 39.4% to 43.2% 31.4% to 39.4% Data Source: 1997 Agriculture Census

  42. Legend Agefarm8797 Change in the Average Age of Farmer Operators (1987-1997) Kentucky = 3.8% Red = Increase Yellow = Decrease or No Change Data Source: 1987 & 1997 Agriculture Censuses

  43. Legend chglandf Change in Acres of Land in Farms (1992-1997) Kentucky = -2.4% Yellow = Increase Red = Decrease Data Source: 1992 & 1997 Agriculture Censuses

  44. Julie N. Zimmerman Dept. of Community and Leadership Development 500 Garrigus University of Kentucky Lexington, KY 40546-0215 859-257-7583 ph. 859-257-4354 fax jzimm@uky.edu http://www.uky.edu/Ag/CLD http://www.ca.uky.edu/SNARL

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