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Biofuels, the right choice?

Biofuels, the right choice?. ICREP, Enschede, March 26, 2013 J.W. Storm van Leeuwen independent consultant storm@ceedata.nl. Biofuels. Outline 1 Introduction 2 Energy costs energy 3 Bioenergy 4 Features of industrial energy crops 5 Other means of harvesting solar energy

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Biofuels, the right choice?

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  1. Biofuels, the right choice? ICREP, Enschede, March 26, 2013 J.W. Storm van Leeuwen independent consultant storm@ceedata.nl J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  2. Biofuels Outline 1 Introduction 2 Energy costs energy 3 Bioenergy 4 Features of industrial energy crops 5 Other means of harvesting solar energy 6 Comparison bioenergy–photovoltaic energy 7 Conclusions J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  3. Biofuels Scope of this study • Physical assessment of industrial biofuels as substitute for fossil fuels • Not addressed: – traditional biomass small-scale use of biomass (cooking, heating) – economic and social aspects J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  4. Biofuels World energy flows in 2010 J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  5. Biofuels Energy costs energy. Upstream losses of fossil fuel production J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  6. Biofuels Mineral resources (fossil fuels, uranium, metals, phosphate) • Highest-quality easiest accessible mined first • Quality and accessibility decline with time • Energy investments per kg recovered product increase with time J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  7. Biofuels Energy costs energy. Direct and indirect energy inputs of the production of biofuels J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  8. Biofuels Bioenergy Assimilation efficiency globally 0.3-1% insolation Net yield lower: upstream losses J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  9. Biofuels Bioenergy Electricity from biomass J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  10. Biofuels Bioethanol – Higher end range: sugar cane Brazil – Lower end range: wheat, corn, other regions J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  11. Biofuels Features industrial cultivation energy crops Critical conditions • suitable soil • fresh water • climate (temperature, droughts, floods) J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  12. Biofuels Features industrial cultivation energy crops Required inputs • nutrients, fertiliser • pest control • farming: labour, equipment, diesel • seed and seedlings J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  13. Biofuels Features industrial cultivation energy crops Phosphate • no substitution possible: essential for food production • quality remaining resources declining with time: – higher content toxic & radioactive elements – increasing energy investments per kg J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  14. Biofuels Features industrial cultivation energy crops Competes with food production, forestry, natural reserves. Environmental burden • fresh water consumption • pollution by nutrients runoff (algal blooms, dead zones) • deterioration cropland J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  15. Biofuels J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  16. Biofuels Solar energy harvest by photovoltaics • also in arid, inhabitable regions • roofs • no input of water and other commodities • efficiency improving with time J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  17. Biofuels Solar energy harvest by photovoltaics J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  18. Biofuels Solar energy harvest by photovoltaics J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  19. Biofuels Solar energy harvest by photovoltaics J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  20. Biofuels Comparison biomass – photovoltaics (PV) • biomass –> heat (100%) • biomass –> heat –> electricity (40%) • biomass –> automotive fuel (25%) • PV –> electricity • PV –> electricity –> heat (100%) • PV –> electricity –> hydrogen (80%) • PV –> electricity –> hydrogen –> automotive fuel (60%) J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  21. Biofuels Comparison biomass – photovoltaics (PV) J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  22. Biofuels Conclusions Biofuels compete with food production, forestry, natural reserves: • arable land • fresh water • nutrients Phosphate irreplaceable nutrient Quality phosphate resources going down with time J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  23. Biofuels Conclusions Environmental aspects of biofuel production • degradation soils • pollution nutrient runoff • degradation biodiversity J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  24. Biofuels Conclusions Biodiesel production from micro algae – early phase of development – major hurdles remain to overcome – no empirical data operational plants J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  25. Biofuels Conclusions • Sugar cane likely most productive crop • Highest reported biomass yields: 20-40 Mg/ha/a dry mass (Brazil) = 340-680 GJ/ha/a • Highest reported bioethanol yields: 4000-7000 L/ha/a (Brazil) = 80-140 GJ/ha/a Net yields lower (energy investments) J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  26. Biofuels Conclusions • Biomass yields industrial practice globally: 10-30 Mg/ha/a dry mass (rich lands) = 170-510 GJ/ha/a • Bioethanol (wheat, corn) yields: 2500-3800 L/ha/a = 50-76 GJ/ha/a Net yields lower (energy investments) J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  27. Biofuels Conclusions Photovoltaic parks electricity yields • Current practice: 2100-5200 GJ/ha/a (insolation) • Optimal layout: 3100-7800 GJ/ha/a Automotive fuel yields from PV: • 1300-5000 GJ/ha/a Net yields lower (energy investments construction) J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

  28. Nucleaire gezondheidsrisico’s in vredestijd Kernenergie: de lange termijn J.W. Storm van Leeuwen

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